Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Marc Faber : a Bubble is Forming in China

Marc Faber on Bloomberg 21st April 2010

Marc Faber :"I think that there are some symptoms of a bubble building in China , we have this rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves , we have very strong credit growth we have rapidly rising property prices and a bubble is obviously building , now it is always difficult to tell at what particular time or which day the bubble will burst , I turned bearish about Japan in 1988 two years before the NIKKEI collapsed and I turned negative about US Tech stocks in 19p8 and it took another two years untill the bubble burst , I am not saying that the Chinese property market is bursting tomorrow , however I just like to observe the following : first of all the chinese stock market is still far below its peak in 2007 secondly the stock market in China is lower than in august 2009 and is lower as is the Hang Sen index than in November 2009 , in other words we have essentially a boom in properties but it is not reflected in the stock market, and I think may be the stock market is giving us a signal that not all is right in China ...and all I am maintaining is if the bubble burst in china you do not want to be say in australian stocks , in the australian dollar in commodities , in industrial commodities like copper and Nickel and Alluminum because the demand for commodities in scenario of chinese bubble bursting is going to go down very substantially , so it is a risk now , it may not happen right away may only happen next year , but this is ...an investor should keep this in mind that when the bubble burst in China and for sure if it does not burst now it will burst say in six months , if it does not burst in six months it may burst in twelve months or in eighteen months , the longer it does not happen the worse it will be ..."
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks about growth in lending and increases in property prices in China. Faber also discusses his caution about buying industrial commodities and Australian stocks. He speaks with Bloomberg's Liza Lin in Singapore.
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Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude.
Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong.
Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, MARC FABER LIMITED which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
Dr Faber publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletter "The Gloom Boom & Doom Report" report which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books including “ TOMORROW'S GOLD – Asia's Age of Discovery” which was first published in 2002 and highlights future investment opportunities around the world. “ TOMORROW'S GOLD ” was for several weeks on Amazon's best seller list and is being translated into Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Thai and German. Dr. Faber is also a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world.
Dr. Marc Faber also known as Dr Doom is an investment adviser, investment analyst and fund manager author and publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report ,and the author of "Tomorrows Gold" . Dr Faber is known for his contrarian investment approach. Dr Marc Faber is associated with a variety of funds and is a member of the Board of Directors of numerous companies.
In 1987 he warned his clients to cash out before Black Monday on Wall Street. He made them handsome profits by forecasting the burst in the Japanese Bubble in 1990. He correctly predicted the collapse in US gaming stocks in 1993; and he foresaw the Asia-Pacific financial crisis of 1997/98 and the resulting global volatility. Dr Doom motto is "Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost be right"
Mr. Faber is also the author of several books, including Tomorrow’s Gold – Asia’s Age of Discovery, and is a director of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. , a mining firm focused on the Asia Pacific region. He is also an adviser to a number of private investment funds.

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