Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Mohamed El-Erian : The market is giving you a very clear signal

"The market is giving you a very clear signal. It's saying, 'Let's focus on top-line revenue. It's not enough to focus on on the bottom line, because we don't want to see one-off cost containment, we don't want to see one-off items being shifted," "We want to see top-line revenue growth because we want to see sustainable earnings, and the companies are falling short...of the top-line revenue growth that was anticipated."Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC
via CNBC

Marc Faber : Investors take far too many risks – often with borrowed money

"I feel that most investors take far too many risks – often with borrowed money – and fail to diversify sufficiently. They also have little patience, very short-term time horizons and no tolerance for losses," Marc Faber writes.

"Their expectations about investment returns are completely unrealistic… Most investors buy a stock or make an investment with the view that within a month the return should be between 10% and 20%," he added

"If you can achieve an annual average real return of just 3% on all your assets (inflation adjusted), you will leave a huge fortune to your children".

"The prime consideration should always be capital preservation and avoiding large losses," Faber concludes

Monday, July 19, 2010

Marc Faber : I am not a great believer in this austerity

“I am not a great believer in this austerity that they are proclaiming. I think the fiscal deficit will actually stay very high or even increase and I think that if they decrease the fiscal deficit then it will be offset by very expansionary monetary policy, in other words monetization, so the whole burden to support the economy will fall on monetary policies, then they’ll print money like crazy.
“I would not pay too much attention to what they say but to what the markets do and it seems to me that the people that predicted the Dow Jones at 1000 or S&P at 500 or 200 are misreading the facts that under a fiat monetary system you can print endless quantities of money and so stocks may adjust in real terms but not necessarily in nominal terms to the extent that the super bears are predicting.”

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Marc Faber warns about World War 3 - 14 july 2010

Marc Faber predict : perpetual depression , Inflation and then world scale war

This is an interview in french with radio host Jovanovic
Marc Faber : you should own farm land in order to stay clear in a case of war , because I believe that before the whole system collapses the governments will start inflating the money supply by printing more money until the situation is no longer sustainable , after that the government will start a war , the worse place to be in such a case would be a financial center City , this way the government will turn the attention of its people towards a newly fabricated common enemy, another incentive for war would be the shortage in basic commodities ...

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Mish Shedlock avoid Stocks buy Treasuries and Gold

Mish Shedlock : The Bull Market in treasuries is not over yet

Mish" Shedlock, author of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish : we have been heavily in treasuries and moist people mocked that , but we've done rather well in treasuries , I think treasuries still have little life left in them certainly treasuries are no where near the buy when at ten year was 4 percent now its down to three ...I think it's quite possible and we need to keep an open mind in this that the bull market in treasuries is not over ...in fact if you look at two years treasuries we are floating at all time record lows right now .....

Friday, July 16, 2010

Faber : The Fed will implement more Quantitative Easing - Video

Faber Sees Fed Introducing `Massive' Quantitative Easing: Video

Marc Faber : I am convinced they will implement further quantitative easing and massively so , it will probably happen in September October ...The economy is not robust , we have mixed signals but in general the economy is still weak



July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, says he's "convinced" the Federal Reserve will soon implement "massive" quantitative easing policies. Bloomberg's Sara Eisen reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Marc Faber : stocks may adjust in real terms but not necessarily in nominal terms to the extent that the super bears are predicting

Marc Faber : not convinced of austerity measures as the way to go , Expect fiscal deficit to remain high





Marc Faber : Well Basically we got very over sold at the beginning of July and since then we rallied quite strongly , I think that we can rally some what more but if we look at the S&P the low was 1010 and the previous support was 1040 and the top at the end of April was 1219 so around 1170 there is a lot of resistance and it will be very difficult for the market to get through that resistance ....
we have to distinguish between what central Banks and the governments in the western world say and what they will do , I am not a great believer in this austerity that they are proclaiming , I think the fiscal deficit will actually stay very high or even increase and I think that if they decrease the fiscal deficit then it will be offset by very expansionary monetary policy in other words monetisation , so the whole burden to support the economy will fall on the monetary policies then they'll print money like crazy and so I would not pay too much attention to what they say but to what the markets do and it seems to me that the people that predicted the DOW JONES 1000 or S&P 500 or S&P 200 I think they're misreading the facts that under fiat monetary system you can print endless quantity of money and so stocks may adjust in real terms but not necessarily in nominal terms to the extent that the super bears are predicting ...
Nouriel Roubini Gary Shilling David Rosenberg these are the true deflationists says doctor Marc Faber they advice to be in US government bonds and to basically avoid everything else ...adds Marc Faber : I do not think that the US Bonds are desirable investment for the next 5-10 years....Investments in US Bonds and cash may be a very risky strategy in the long run , Dr Faber rather sees inflation coming than deflation : I am not a great believer in deflation , all the prices around the world are going up says Dr Faber ...


Marc Faber, investment guru and editor and publisher “The Gloom, Boom & Doom” report, said that markets were in an oversold zone in early July and since then global markets have rallied strongly and could rally somewhat more.

Stimulus vs Austerity , Niall Ferguson vs Paul Krugman

Niall Ferguson: Paul Krugman's Advice Will Lead Us Down A Road To Ruin

Nial Fergusson : well let me make clear that as far as I am concerned this rivalry is purely unintellectual one it's not so much within economics , I am not an economist I am a historian it's more of a debate between an economist and a historian about what the lessons of the great depression are ...and that's in my view what all this is all about ...I leave all personal consideration aside I do not think we could be best buddies ......"this is a political problem Niall Fergusson noted and until Washington has its mind focused but yet more bad economic news I do not think there's gonna be any change to that situation .we are fiscally Gridlocked .., republicans want tax cuts democrats want to spend more money and the result is deficit after deficit after deficit.....

Marc Faber : Symptoms Of Deflation

Symptoms Of Deflation
"Another symptom of growing deflationary pressures and expectations is a collapse in lumber prices and the recent rally in long-term government bonds."

in FTB.com

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Marc Faber : the U.S. will go to war in the next 10 years or so

Marc Faber does expect a Banking crisis for this year but in the next five to ten years ..."you see we had a financial crisis basically the financial system went bust , but it was bailed out by the government , the next time when the train stops is when the government goes bankrupt , and that day I really look forward when the government goes bankrupt because that really what they deserve..." says Marc Faber , Marc Faber believes that the US will go to war (in the next ten years or so ) regardless against whom cause the US has always been good at finding foreign enemies somewhere , Marc Faber also predicts that the US may stop paying the bonds to foreigners especially in case of war

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Marc Faber recommends Gold, Equities, Real Estate , cash. But no Bonds.

Marc Faber on The Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava 09 July 2010





Dr. Marc Faber author and editor of the Gloom boom and Doom report advises against the use of leverage for small investors , Marc Faber says that he is not sure about deflation ,he believes that the Gold bull market will continue and along the way of this bull market corrections may happen ....Marc Faber is not convinced that bonds will rally past their previous 2008 highs "All I have to say to deflationists : if they're right and we have wide spread deflation I am not sure that treasuries will rally because the fiscal deficit will go ballistic and the quality of the government debt will diminish " says Marc Faber...Faber believes that the stock market may have topped in April , The Federal Reserve have been bubble blowers and Obama is a complete disaster says Dr. Marc Faber , stocks will outperform bonds says Marc Faber ....finally due to the coming hyperinflation Marc Faber recommends some gold, equities, and some cash. But no bonds.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Marc Faber : Excessive credit growth caused the the financial crises

“One day when interest rates go up… the interest payments on the government debts will balloon, and in say 7 years time, the interest payments on the US government debt will be between 35% to 50% of tax revenues. Then you are in a huge mess.”

Friday, July 9, 2010

Marc Faber I prefer diversification and no leverage

Marc Faber : For the average investor like myself, I prefer diversification and no leverage. I have seen time and again investors (including myself) be right about an asset class’ future performance but fail to convert those views into any capital gains… All I wish to say to my readers who are not managing risk on a daily basis is that the prime consideration should always be capital preservation and avoiding large losses.
in wallstreetpit.com

Marc Faber appointed on NovaGold Board

NovaGold Appoints Marc Faber and Igor Levental to Its Board

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Jul 08, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- NovaGold Resources Inc. (CA:NG 6.73, +0.19, +2.91%) (NG 6.54, +0.26, +4.14%) today announced the appointment of Dr. Marc Faber and Mr. Igor Levental to its Board of Directors.

Dr. Faber has over 35 years of experience in the finance industry and is the Managing Director of Marc Faber Ltd., an investment advisory and fund management firm.
read full story >>>

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Marc Faber on The global warming

Marc Faber : The global warming alarmists - they may be right I don’t know as I am not a scientist but even the scientists don’t know for sure. There is huge money behind global warming issues. If you have energy conservation and you have this global warming with carbon credits, there is a huge business opportunity. Although there is huge business opportunity, they are not to do anything about it. So the two sides are antagonised by each other and they are going to fight it out like crazy.

One group will say the others don’t understand anything about global warming and the others will prove that the global warming today is what it was in the past 1000 or 2000 years.

There were period during which there were waves of warming climates and then waves of cooling climates. The last 10 years incidentally the climate has cooled down, it has not become warmer but I have to admit when I go to Switzerland, the glaciers are smaller than 30 years ago - that I agree. But I hear both arguments and I cannot tell you what is the reality. I just don’t know. I am an economist, I am not the scientist and even the scientists disagree with each other.
in Economic indiatimes

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Mohamed El-Erian Markets Outlook

Mohamed on the Markets


Jul. 7 2010 | What's next for the markets, with Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO CEO & co-CIO and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.


Talk of Double Dip Recession Grows in U.S.

Reuters Video--Recent economic data and weakness overseas is fueling talk of a double dip recession.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Niall Ferguson: The US Has 6 Years Before Debt Payments Surpass Defense Spending

The Aspen Times reports:
And American politicians don't have a sense of urgency, Ferguson contended. They feel the country can limp along for another 20 years or so in its current financial health without making tough decisions about fiscal policy. He believes they are wrong. The federal government's debt has grown so large in the past decade that the United States will inevitably devote an increasing amount of taxes to it. Meanwhile it's facing a greater burden through the Medicare and Social Security programs as Baby Boomers age. It's also currently fighting two wars. All that while revenues have plummeted in the recession.
“If you really want to see when an empire is getting vulnerable, the big giveaway is when the costs of serving the debt exceed the cost of the defense budget,” Ferguson said. That will happen in the United States within the next six years, he predicted.
Read More >>>

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Niall Ferguson vs Paul Krugman on Fareed Zakarias GPS CNN July 04, 2010

Economist Paul Krugman is a proponent of a strong economic stimulus now. On Fareed Zakaria's GPS.
Niall Ferguson Business Prof at Harvard sees a different solution to the U.S. economy from Paul Krugman.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Marc Faber : The Contrarian Investment Strategies for 2010

The Contrarian play for 2010

..."I avoid US government bonds. I think as a contrarian, you really want the contrarian play. You should buy Japanese stocks and Japanese banks. This is the absolute contrarian play. Nobody is interested in Japan. All the funds have withdrawn money from Japan. They have given up on Japan and I guarantee you the economy would not do. Forget about the economy, the population is shrinking but you can have an economy that does not do well but the companies do well. That is a big difference and I think the Japanese banks are very depressed. All the banks in Asia have actually recovered very strongly but not the Japanese banks so as a contrarian play I would look at that." ....>Marc Faber in www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

All governments will have to be bailed out

"All governments will eventually have to be bailed out in the Western world. It’s either going to be through money printing or default." Marc Faber told Bloomberg few weeks ago

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Marc Faber on industrial commodity

I am cautious about industrial commodity prices, which could come under pressure as global liquidity growth and the global economy slows down. And while I still think that gold will outperform equities in the years to come I believe that a more meaningful correction in the price of gold is now underway. ...Marc Faber on ameinfo.com the ultimate middle east business resource.....

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Marc Faber : The US National debt is already 600% of the GDP

"According to my calculations it is impossible that the American government can fulfill its obligations because the current deficit is over one trillion , this year 1.6 trillion , And that will not come under one trillion and that increase the national debt .The Total debt is already 375% of the GDP , but that does not still include the not yet covered debts of medicaid medicare and social security, if you would include it then the national debt is already 600% of the GDP , So they have to massively print money in the future that will lead to an inflation and recession in the same time , so they might get into a depression and synchronized an inflation as they have in Zimbabwe , The result will be that they will intervene in a war - and the americans are good in finding enemies around the world , That will end in a big conflict and the whole system will collapse" This scenario won't happen tomorrow but in the next 5-10 years guaranteed Marc Faber added

Marc Faber The US is run by The Zimbawe school of Economics

Why you should invest in precious metals

Marc Faber : there are different economic schools , we have the Austrian school , the school of rational expectations , monetary schools and so on and so forth ...in The US we have a totally new school that is called the Zimbabwe school and it was founded by one of the great leaders of this world mister Robert Mugabe that has managed to totally impoverish his own country and that is the monetary policy the US is pursuing , if something goes wrong : print if it does not get fixed print more .....
When paper money is devalued what will you have to trade for goods or services. Trust in Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, nickel, aluminum, brass, lead ;-) its all good!

Monday, June 28, 2010

Marc Faber : advices to avoid industrial commodities copper, nickel, and zinc, for the time being

Marc Faber believes China’s economy will slow down and likely crash in 9-12 months. He suggests avoiding industrial commodities, like copper, nickel, and zinc, for the time being and avoiding companies exposed to Chinese economic growth. Faber finds wheat, corn, and soybeans attractive and believes these agricultural commodities are in the process of making major lows.

MARC FABER – ALL CURRENCIES ARE DOOMED

“All governments will eventually have to be bailed out in the Western world. It’s either going to be through money printing or default.”
in Bloomberg

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Marc Faber I prefer to have China s Bubble than The Bubbles in The US

Marc Faber, author of Gloom Boom and Doom Report says many Western governments would eventually follow the US 'inevitable' default suit. Outspoken investor and writer Marc Faber doesnt give America much time before it goes bust.

“I’m convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow. Before they go bankrupt, they’ll print money, and then you’ll get very high inflation rates. Then you get a depression with high inflation. Then eventually they’ll go to war.”

Friday, June 25, 2010

Marc Faber I will never sell my Gold

"The governments of every developed economy will eventually default on their sovereign debts, so the one thing I will never do in my life is 'sell my gold'. Potential defaulter include the US, the UK and Western Europe.

"I'm convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow, and before they do they will print money , you'll get a depression with very high inflation rates."
Marc Faber Speaking at Russia's Troika Dialog Forum in Moscow early this year

Marc Faber : Gold Price should be treated in the same way that a company stock

"A company's stock could be less expensive at $100 than when it was selling for $10, because earnings growth has outpaced the appreciation of the shares and therefore its price/earnings ratio has declined. So gold could be cheaper at the current price than when it was at less than $300 because of the explosion of foreign exchange reserves in the world, zero interest rates, the huge debt overhang, and the expectation of further money printing."

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Marc Faber : Crude Oil is still the cheapest alternative for energy

I would not take off for a long time and believe me crude oil is still the cheapest alternative for energy and I live in the North of Thailand I mean the people in the countryside they still drive the motorcycs they are not giving to have a motorcycles with batteries but too expensive. So in emerging economies in the last 18 months although we had a huge collapse in economic activity globally their oil demand still growing and in the developed world it is going down and so forth I am convinced that in Asia the oil demand over the next 20 years will more than double so we consume today in Asia 22 million barrels a day. We will go to something like 40 million barrels. The oil production in the world is 85 million barrels of oil a day and every year we find new oil but we use much more oil than we find new reserves so essentially the reserve level in the world is going down. So eventually I suppose we will have much higher prices.
in India Economic Times

Deflation Would Be a Good thing

"I think it would be very good for the world to have deflation"

Marc Faber in CNBC

Marc Faber : Government Expanded Like A Cancer

"Governments have intervened too much in free markets since the crisis started, to the point that they are affecting the health of the world economy."
"I think that governments have become like a cancer, they have expanded in the financial system."
"I think the biggest problem is too much intervention. Whatever the government touches is usually done worse than in the private sector."
"I think any government intervention has unintended consequences and is negative," he said. When there is intervention, "eventually the market will break the intervention and things will blow out."
Government stimulus packages create volatility in stock markets because they distort economic indicators, said Faber, who predicted that the US will implement another stimulus.
Supporters of past government interventions to boost money in the economy have said that without them the world economy would have been in much worse shape now, with unemployment much higher and more companies going bankrupt.
"Yes I am familiar with this line of argumentation," Faber said. "The Keynesians will all say … we would be in a depression now. But it's not clear to me that this is correct."
"At this level I'm not particularly interested in buying anything," he said in response to the deflation argument. "I buy gold, I don't know what else to buy."
He reiterated his view that another, worse crisis may happen in five to 10 years, "when the whole financial system collapses" because the debt problem has been kicked down the road without actually being sold.
"I think US Fed, ECB and other central banks have no other option, they will continue to monetize and buy bad paper, period," Faber said. "The central bankers are precisely the ones that don't know that excessive money creation and excessive debt creation leads to a crisis down the road."
Marc Faber on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe -- June 17, 2010 Click Here to Watch The video >>>
Source CNBC

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Marc Faber USA vs China

Marc Faber : " Basically, the problem of the United States is that they do not produce enough compared to the whole economy and that its net savings are very low. In other words if you have two countries or let's put it in more simple terms, you have two households or two businesses; one household spends everything it earns, one spends everything it earns pays out in dividends and borrows money to maintain the lifestyle of the owners of the family to buy a car, to buy a house, to buy appliances, mobile phones and so forth the other household or the other company - out of its earnings puts something aside and invest in education or in terms of a company in research and development or in new plans and in new machinery and so forth who do you think in the long run will be better off. Consuming means exactly what the word says consumption is you have a plate of food in front of you, you consume it then the food is gone and saving is to put it part of the food aside for the wintertime or for emergencies. So, in my opinion, US has badly abused its power to borrow money basically and has not saved at all in the last few years and obviously, in the long run, relatively speaking, your standards of living go down compared to countries like China and India where you have a high savings rate and where people then build factories and develop their infrastructure and develop the educational standards and so on. So if you look at 1950, the US is up here and the emerging economies are down here and now the US is still up here but is not up much and emerging economies stay close the gap, there is still a gap between the US and most emerging economies but you look at educational standards in the US, in many states of the US 20% of their people are illiterate you know this I mean horrible. "
Via India Economic Times

Mohamed El-Erian : Greek Woes Will Keep Spilling Over - Morningstar Video

Mohamed El-Erian The PIMCO CEO and co-CIO says the Greek crisis is going global, and may lead to tighter credit in Europe and stronger headwinds around the world.




from Wikipedia : Dr. Mohamed Abdulla El-Erian (born 1958) is the CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond investor with over US$1 trillion of assets under management as of 2010. El-Erian previously worked as the investment manager of Harvard Management Company, Harvard University’s US$34.9 billion endowment fund, where he spent almost two years.[1][2] On September 12, 2007, it was announced that El-Erian would return to PIMCO and take up his new roles starting January 1, 2008

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Mohamed el-Erian, CEO of Pimco One on One with Susie Gharib of PBS


Mohamed El-Erian: Susie, we went into the weekend knowing that Europe had a debt issue and Europe had a growth issue. And we come out of the weekend with the news that Europe may also have a banking system issue. The minute you bring in the banking system, it's like an amplifier, something that we discovered in this country a couple of years ago. Banks have a way of amplifying shocks in the system because banks are like the oil in your car. They link up so many different parts. And the problem for the U.S. is that not only is it going to have to cope with a growth issue out of Europe. Europe is an important export market. We sell a lot to Europe. Europe is going to grow less, but now the strains in the banking system. And the minute you introduce strains in the banking system, there's always a fear that governments will be behind the curve and that you can get contagion. You can get widespread disruptions. And that's what we started to price in today.

EL-ERIAN: They are not as exposed to the European banks as they are to each other but we are all exposed to the global banking system. Banks are very inter-linked. And the minute you start having disruptions, the minute the flow through the pipes starts to be interrupted, then everybody suffers. And the concern is that Europe's banking system may come under pressure. Those of us that are in the trenches, those of us who look at the plumbing for the last couple of weeks we have started to see some strains and the news out of Spain this weekend was really the announcement to the rest of the world that the European banking system is coming under pressure.
for the full transcript and to donate to PBS click here >>>

Marc Faber: Avoid The US Disaster, Buy Wheat, Sugar, Natural Gas, And Japan In 2010


Marc Faber :"I avoid US government bonds I think as a contrarian you really want the contrarian play. You should buy Japanese stocks and Japanese banks this is the absolute contrarian play. Nobody is interested in Japan all the funds have withdrawn money from Japan they have given up on Japan I guarantee you the economy would not do well, forget about the economy
the population is shrinking but you can have an economy that does not do well but the companies do well that is a big difference and I think the Japanese banks are very depressed. All the banks in Asia have actually recovered very strongly but not the Japanese banks so as a contrarian play I would look at that."
In India Economic Times

Monday, June 21, 2010

Synchronized Boom, Synchronized Bust

Bad U.S. monetary policy had global consequences.



By MARC FABER

Marc Faber
The world has gone from the greatest synchronized global economic boom in history to the first synchronized global bust since the Great Depression. How we got here is not a cautionary tale of free markets gone wild. Rather, it's the story of what can happen when governments ignore market signals and central bankers believe in endless booms.


in The Wall Street Journal

Dr. Marc Faber Tomorrow's Gold







Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.