Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Mohamed el-Erian, CEO of Pimco One on One with Susie Gharib of PBS


Mohamed El-Erian: Susie, we went into the weekend knowing that Europe had a debt issue and Europe had a growth issue. And we come out of the weekend with the news that Europe may also have a banking system issue. The minute you bring in the banking system, it's like an amplifier, something that we discovered in this country a couple of years ago. Banks have a way of amplifying shocks in the system because banks are like the oil in your car. They link up so many different parts. And the problem for the U.S. is that not only is it going to have to cope with a growth issue out of Europe. Europe is an important export market. We sell a lot to Europe. Europe is going to grow less, but now the strains in the banking system. And the minute you introduce strains in the banking system, there's always a fear that governments will be behind the curve and that you can get contagion. You can get widespread disruptions. And that's what we started to price in today.

EL-ERIAN: They are not as exposed to the European banks as they are to each other but we are all exposed to the global banking system. Banks are very inter-linked. And the minute you start having disruptions, the minute the flow through the pipes starts to be interrupted, then everybody suffers. And the concern is that Europe's banking system may come under pressure. Those of us that are in the trenches, those of us who look at the plumbing for the last couple of weeks we have started to see some strains and the news out of Spain this weekend was really the announcement to the rest of the world that the European banking system is coming under pressure.
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Marc Faber: Avoid The US Disaster, Buy Wheat, Sugar, Natural Gas, And Japan In 2010


Marc Faber :"I avoid US government bonds I think as a contrarian you really want the contrarian play. You should buy Japanese stocks and Japanese banks this is the absolute contrarian play. Nobody is interested in Japan all the funds have withdrawn money from Japan they have given up on Japan I guarantee you the economy would not do well, forget about the economy
the population is shrinking but you can have an economy that does not do well but the companies do well that is a big difference and I think the Japanese banks are very depressed. All the banks in Asia have actually recovered very strongly but not the Japanese banks so as a contrarian play I would look at that."
In India Economic Times

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