Marc Faber`s Investment and Trading Ideas - A Tracking Blog About Dr. Marc Faber , Daily Tracking of Dr. Marc Faber Investment Strategy , Market analysis & Outlook and Media appearances
Marc Faber : My worst investment decisions so far is to lend money to friends. So far, it has all came to zero.
Shorting the Nasdaq in 1998 was also a disaster, and it will remain, in my life as an investment advisor and fund manager, a very black spot. The damage was considerable.
Marc Faber : Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new “credit bubble, “Instead of interest rates' going down, they could start to go up. Instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen,” Marc Faber told reporters during a forum in Seoul, South Korea, last week. “I'm ultrabearish on everything, but I believe you'll be better off owning shares than government bonds,” he added. In 1987 Dr.Marc Faber also warned his clients to cash out before the Black Monday on Wall Street. He made them handsome profits by forecasting the burst in the Japanese Bubble in 1990. He correctly predicted the collapse in US gaming stocks in 1993; and he foresaw the Asia-Pacific financial crisis of 1997/98 and the resulting global volatility. Dr Doom motto is "Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost be right"
James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, and Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc., talk about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, the labor market and the dollar.
Dr Doom Marc Faber told the German newspaper Handelsblatt that bond yields will rise massively and U.S. government bonds could eventually become worthless as central banks worldwide , led by the Federal Reserve, keep on printing more money in an effort to boost economies, “Over the next 10 years, we won’t see any restrictive monetary policy anymore and no real interest rates above zero,” mac Faber was reported saying to the German newspaper . Bond yields will “rise massively,” Marc Faber explained.
Oct. 14 2010 | The Basel III rules to strengthen bank capital are not enough to avoid another financial crisis, as James Turley, global chairman of Ernst & Young believes more needs to be done on the regulatory front. He makes his case to CNBC's Chloe Cho.
Wed. Oct. 13 2010 | Princeton University professor Paul Krugman, says China is the "bad guy" in the currency war as it is behaving badly by having an artificially weak yuan even as it is tightening policy. He states his case to CNBC's Chloe Cho.
Wed. Oct. 13 2010 | While many have said more QE will do little to help boost economic growth and will severely weaken fiscal positions, Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman has been arguing for not just more stimulus, but to the tune of trillions of dollars. He makes his case to CNBC's Chloe Cho.
Oct. 12 2010 | Mongolian Mining Corp is set to debut on the Hong Kong market today. In this First on CNBC interview, its executive director & chairman Odjargal Jambaljamts, sheds more light on its corporate strategy going forward, with CNBC's Bernard Lo, Lisa Oake & Sri Jegarajah.
“Instead of interest rates going down, they could start to go up, instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen,” “I’m ultra-bearish on everything, but I believe you’ll be better off owning shares than government bonds.” Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new “credit bubble,” Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told reporters during a forum in Seoul today 12 Oct 2010.
One of the wisest and most trusted investment advisors in the world, Dr Marc Faber says that interest rates will be going up within three months after the bond market passes ‘an important inflection point’.
This is exactly the opposite of what the US Federal Reserve is promising, and is bound to turn global financial markets upside down. Higher interest rates will strengthen the dollar rather than weaken it, while the value of bond holdings all over the globe will be decimated. read entire article
http://inflation.us/
Helping Americans Prepare for Hyperinflation.
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How Gold and Silver are Warning U.S.
Gold is Sounding an Alarm Few in the Mainstream Media Want to Discuss
The questions is - Why are Gold and Silver Price Alarms going off?
First, Western World budget deficits are now totally uncontrolled. Debt is esentially destroying the Western World
Second, The Obama administration has saddled us with enough debt at the federal level to last three generations all in the name of "stimulus".
Third, The US Federal Reserve is Insolvent and Bankrupt They have flooded the system with liquidity through Quantitative Easing
They have loaded their balance sheet with worthless loan paper and reduced interest rates to 0% for over 20 months
And What have been the results? Paralyzed job growth., record unemployment, record food stamps, and record poverty levels.
Gold and Silver are sounding the Alarm, but Food and Energy price increases will soon follow.
The face of Inflation has recently reared its ugly head in commodity prices.
The Commodity sector is driving food prices to levels not seen since 2008. (Graph of Commodities prices)
When higher commodity prices translate into $500 grocery bills, recession weary americans may go into economic shock.
Energy Prices have stayed in check, but this may be the calm before the oil price storm.
When oil and energy prices rise rapidly, home heating bills, home cooling bills and gasoline prices will join the long list of soaring costs nationwide.
Remember when gasoline went to $5 dollars per gallon? A sheer panic ripped across this country. It's coming again, but be prepared for the prices to stay
The combination of skyhigh food and gasoline prices may be the final nail in the coffin of the American Middle Class.
Travelling with Physical Gold Coins as insurance will soon become the norm. In many parts of the world the 1996 $50 or $100 US note is worthless because of the quality of counterfeits being printed internationally.
In Europe, American travellers are learning that the US Dollar is untradeable on the street. And Personally, 1 gold coin got me out of a very bad situation in Mexico City during the H1N1 outbreak.
Make no mistake about what you are seeing, especially with the price action of gold and silver.
Both metals are signifying a loss of confidence in the Dollar and particularly in its management team.
The Price of gold is no longer mental speculation, but rather reality hiding in plain sight.
The Day when every American recognizes paper bills as trash and gold and silver as true money, is almost here.
Dr Doom Marc Faber will be a key speaker at the New Orleans 2010 Investment Conference www.neworleansconference.com ,which will be taking place October 27-30. Other speakers include Newt Gingrich, Brien Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, and Charles Krauthammer. Marc Faber's intervention will be under the title 'Global inflation and the Commodities Boom , governments are cranking up the printing presses but not all commodities will benefit....'
By: Nathaniel Crawford Marc Faber is out with his monthly report in which he discusses quantitative easing, equity markets, the dollar, gold, and other commodities. Here are a few highlights:
1. Equity Markets--Faber was correct last month in predicting a rally based upon extremely negative investor sentiment. He is more cautious about October because stocks are very overbought according to the % of stock above their 50 day moving average. Another reason for concern, is that after a strong September, markets often fall sharply in October and November. He is underweight equities right now. read entire article
Marc Faber :"I cannot tell you on which date the S&P will hit 950. But the case is simply that some people say the S&P will drop to 400. I have maintained since March 6, 2009 that 666 on the S&P was a major low and that we will not go below that level. This is still my view. I think a correction is still overdue, but not new lows and afterwards they will print and print and print and the equity prices will go higher. More than that, I do not know. " in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., and James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, talk with Margaret Brennan about the U.S. economy on Bloomberg Television's ``InBusiness.''
The Federal Reserve is Responsible for the last 2 Decades of Economic Turmoil
1. Beginning with the Savings & Loan crisis in 1990, each engineered crisis is growing in intensity and carnage. First, there was the Internet bubble crash then the Real Estate bubble meltdown and now we are at the footsteps of an unprecedented acceleration of price increases in food and energy.
In 2007, commodity prices soared when there was actually a slowdown in the global economy. There was no reason for commodity prices to go ballistic at that time, except for federal reserve intervention. The price of oil went from $78 to $147. High gas prices actually burdened the average US consumer with an additional "tax" of five hundred billion dollars.
That 500 billion dollar "hidden tax" was ONE of many reasons, we are IN the current Great (NON) Recession.
(The US Dollar Index is Worthless)
2. On CNBC they often point to the dollar index and state that a weaker dollar is good for the export economy. Currently US Dollar index looks bad - but it actually means nothing because it is being compared to other world wide fiat currencies undergoing massive debasement. Worldwide central banks, seem to be in a currency death dance, racing each other to the bottom in the name of international competitiveness.
Gold and Silver is the Only way to test the Strength of our Currency.
The dollar is weakening against other currencies but when compared against the price of precious metals and raw materials we can see THE THE TRUE VALUE OF A US FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE
(GOLD AND SILVER ARE NOT EXPENSIVE)
3. The truth is Gold and Silver prices are just Getting Started. If you pay attention the public is selling not buying gold (cash4gold commercial)
What happened during the Internet bubble? The average Joe was piling into tech stocks and many individuals were giving up there jobs to day trade full time
And we all know what transpired during the last death throws of the Real estate bubble. People were buying at the peak 3, 4, 5, 10 home and flipping every WHICH way to make AS LITTLE AS 20,000
The common JOE, BUYS into manias...When all your neighbors are hoarding and trading gold, and telling you real estate is a waste of time and money, it may be the time to look at diversifying some your investments out of gold and silver.
WHAT I SEE PERSONALLY IS
10 years of Real Estate Stagnation & Depreciation &
10 years of Gold & Silver Appreciation
4 (JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK TO THE US)
TO QUOTE Dr. Marc Faber: "COMPANIES would be out of THEIR minds, with health care reforms, government interventions and the uncertainty about future taxes in the US, to even consider expanding in the US.
Corporations are expanding in China, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Africa and Brazil. The business world is an international place today, and if you run a corporation, whether you employ 50 or 10,000 PEOPLE, you can choose where you invest your money in terms of capital spending.
Where do you want to expand factories? If I employed people in the US, I would rather think of reducing the 50 employees RATHER THEN HIRING MORE.
source : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doSpeRyBHw8
Marc Faber :"Basically I am not very keen to buy emerging economies at the present time and I would rather lighten up positions. As far as the equity allocation between equities, bonds, cash and precious metals, commodities and real estate is concerned, that depends on every individual. It is like if you go to the doctor and you tell him ‘oh, what kind of pills shall I take?’ That depends very much on the individual, on the status of his health, on his ailments and so you cannot generalize.
But for me, I like Asian real estate, I like equities in Asia, I still like precious metals and I like in particular physical precious metals. I also own gold shares because I am the chairman of several resource related companies, mining companies in the exploration domain and so I own them. But my preference is for physical gold and silver and then I own real estate and I have some bonds not because I particularly like bonds, but I look at corporate bonds as kind of an equity with a relatively high dividend. " Marc Faber "Yes, I still like these commodities (agri-commodities), but because they moved up so strongly, I would be a little bit careful about mortgaging my house and buying all these commodities. They will continue to move higher, but corrections can occur. What disturbs me is this kind of universal belief that you have to be in commodities, you have to be in precious metals, you have to be in equities and not in cash because governments - in others words central banks - will keep on printing money and the value of paper money will go down. I agree with that but as I pointed out, we can still get meaningful corrections as occurred in 2008. "
Marc Faber : "Basically I am not very keen to buy emerging economies at the present time and I would rather lighten up positions. As far as the equity allocation between equities, bonds, cash and precious metals, commodities and real estate is concerned, that depends on every individual. It is like if you go to the doctor and you tell him ‘oh, what kind of pills shall I take?’ That depends very much on the individual, on the status of his health, on his ailments and so you cannot generalize.
But for me, I like Asian real estate, I like equities in Asia, I still like precious metals and I like in particular physical precious metals. I also own gold shares because I am the chairman of several resource related companies, mining companies in the exploration domain and so I own them. But my preference is for physical gold and silver and then I own real estate and I have some bonds not because I particularly like bonds, but I look at corporate bonds as kind of an equity with a relatively high dividend. " in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber :" I am still positive about oil and I am aware that some analysts predict oil prices to drop to $30 and copper prices to drop 70%, but the fact is simply the oil demand now-a-days in emerging economies exceeds for the first time in the history of capitalism. The oil demand in the developed world and this oil demand in emerging economies will continue to go up. So the demand side looks quite strong.
On the other hand, you have prices between $70 and $80 and someone could argue well that that is a very high price and so maybe prices will temporarily decline - that may be the case. But I would like to point out that for any oil company to go and explore and drill for new oil, the oil price has to be around $70. Otherwise, they would not do it because the marginal cost of new production is around this level.
Secondly, unlike say a farmer who harvests, oil is a finite resource in the sense that once you pump it and you burn it, it is no longer there. The farmer can harvest his crop every year again and again and again. In the case of oil, once you pump it, it is gone and you use it. So in most countries, oil production is going down and oil reserves are going down. In other words, the world will hit one day peak oil, the way the US hit peak oil in 1970. So the dynamics between the demand and the supply side look actually quite promising in the long run. " in www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber:"I still like the agricultural commodities, but they have had a very big move - in some cases 50% - over the last 3 months. So potentially, we will get kind of a setback here, a correction. But in general, I am still positive on agricultural commodities and I am still positive about precious metals whereby precious metals have become very popular lately and they have been very strong, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium and a correction is also overdue.
The whole world is now optimistic and positioned to take advantage of forever expansionary monetary policies by buying assets, precious metals, real estate, equities, and everybody believes that the central banks in the world will print and print and print and print. That is correct, they will do that, but they printed, printed and printed and we still saw a financial crisis in 2008. So I can print and print and print, and you can still have big corrections in the market. But I believe that if the S&P in the US drops 15-20% to around 900-950, the Fed would come out not with this quantitative easing No. 2, but with quantitative easing No. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 until the asset markets go up again. They are going to print and print and print. " in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber :"I am still positive about economic growth in the emerging world. But what disturbs me at the present time is that in late August, sentiment was very negative worldwide and people said that Dow will drop to 1000 and so forth and so on. Suddenly now, the consensus is that you have to be in equities, you have to be in gold, you have to be in assets because central banks around the world will print money. That is correct, they will print money. But sentiment has become so universally bullish that about all assets, including especially emerging economies - in US dollar terms - are up. The Indian market this year is already up 19%, Malaysia 28%, the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand each over 40%.
We already have big moves and I see all the brokers upgrading the earnings estimates and so forth. So I become a little bit apprehensive about this universal bullishness. I would rather think that after a strong month of September - when everybody was expecting September to be a horrible month - October and November may be bad months. In the past, October has frequently been a disastrous month like we had the October 1987 crash, we had the late September-early October 1929 crisis. In 1976 and 1978, we had very bad months in October and November. So who knows, out of this present bullishness, we could have some kind of a sharp correction developing. ".....etc...
Dr. Marc Faber: "The dollar has been relatively weak in the last few years. It’s just that the other currencies are not much better. There has been a tendency for the dollar to weaken and certainly it has weakened against the price of oil, against the price of precious metals and raw materials and it’s lost its purchasing power. There is no question about the fact that, today, if you have $100,000 you can buy less than 10 years ago or 20 years ago. Just look at the housing market. It has come down somewhat but a house is much more expensive than in 1980." in goldnewswire.net
Q: If you were owning stocks in India today, what would you do? A: That depends, if all my money is in stocks in India, I would sell or bring down the position meaningfully. But if I have 5% of my global assets in Indian stocks, I would maybe keep them, depending of course which companies I own and how comfortable I feel with these companies. Though the question is how much money do you have in the market, but I think in general people around the world are underweight Indian equities because it’s a huge country, billion people and many international portfolios have zero exposure to India. So, I think that in general if someone has no money in India, I would over a time stimulate Indian shares. As I mentioned to you I think the market technically doesn’t look good. We may go down first before we rally further, if at all, maybe we don’t even rally as I said maybe we are in a trading range in India between 13,000 and 19,000. But if I had too much exposure in Indian shares I would definitely reduce the position. via http://www.moneycontrol.com
Marc Faber : I think that the Yuan will continue to appreciate against the US Dollar along with the other Asian currencies because China with its large reserve can basically force the other currencies in Asia also upwards by buying them , I do not think that China is terribly concerned by say ten or twenty percent appreciation of the Yuan against the US dollar but what I do not like is to be pushed around by someone like Mister Obama ...... well basically we are in an Olympic game in the world to depreciate currencies we do not have trade wars like in the thirties when you have import restrictions and essentially trade barriers , but countries , in my opinion a mistake they try to remain competitive by having a low currency , and so everybody in the world try to lower the value of its currency .... i think the Asian currencies including the Chinese Yuan will continue to appreciate , this year the Malaysian Ringgit is up ten percent the Thai Baht is up almost nine percent and the stock markets of Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia are all up in US dollar terms between fifteen and thirty five percent ..., I think we live in a new world in which emerging economies will have a larger and larger share of wealth , stock market capitalization it doubled in the last ten years already and stands now at twenty two percent of global market capitalization , I think in ten years time emerging economies could be fifty percent of the global stock market capitalization ....etc.... Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discusses the outlook for the Chinese yuan. Faber, speaking from Chiang Mai, Thailand, with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack," also discusses gold prices and expectations for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Dr. Marc Faber One of the most prominent gold price bulls over the past decade has At the recent CLSA Investors’ Forum 2010 in Hong Kong, Faber said that he still sees the price of gold as relatively inexpensive, despite the record levels being reached this recently, but there is always a risk of sharp corrections that may occur from time to time , Marc Faber denied that gold could be in any form of a bubble
saying “given all the unfunded liabilities and the money printing in the world and the size of the financial assets in the world.“ Faber advices investors to accumulate gold through monthly purchases , and to avoid putting too large a portion of their money into the yellow metal, because here is always the possibility of sharp declines which can be expected from time to time. “We can have one day a correction of 20 to 30%,” Marc Faber explained. As an example, he pointed to the gold price performance in the 1970s, which saw the price of gold tumble from $195 to $105, before ultimately rising above $800 per ounce.
Dr. Marc Faber: The first action Mr. Bernanke should take is to resign. If I had messed up the system so badly, as he has done, I would have to resign. He has talked constantly about the Great Depression and what caused the depression but the problem is that he really doesn't understand what caused the depression, which was also excessive leverage at that time. I have to stress that in 1929 the debt to GDP ratio was of course minuscule in comparison what it is today. It was 186% of GDP but you didn't have Social security, Medicare and Medicaid and unfunded liabilities for Social Security and so forth. So, debt today, as a percent of GDP, is 379% and if you add the unfunded liabilities we are at over 800%. The Federal Reserve should pay attention to that.
a transcript of the full interview can be found here >>>
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is likely to lower its forecasts for U.S. economic growth at tomorrow’s meeting, said Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund.
Commodity Surge With gold prices breaking several all-time records this week, you would think most would think it's getting expensive to acquire the yellow metal, but not Marc Faber, who says gold bullion prices aren't expensive in his view.
At a CLSA Investors’ Forum 2010 in Hong Kong, Faber said, “Given all the unfunded liabilities and the money printing in the world and the size of the financial assets in the world, I don’t think we are in a read article >>>
Nouriel Roubini and Dr Marc Faber are both widely known in investment circles as ‘Dr Doom’ for their generally pessimistic views on markets. As both have called markets correctly ahead of some of the biggest bear markets of recent years, it is striking when the pair disagree. In this case, they are at odds on the future direction of the Japanese currency and its implications for Japanese equities.
Bullish on Japanese equities
Faber, author of the influential Gloom, Boom and Doom report, is relatively bullish on prospects for the Japanese stock market over the next 12 months because he is expecting the yen to depreciate in price. read article >>>>
While some point to the economically stable decades following the Great Depression as a triumph of the free market, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz begs to differ. In reality, he says, these years were made possible by careful government intervention and regulation.
Visiting Nobel Laureate and global economist Professor Joseph Stiglitz believes Australia's good fortune in being sheltered from the worst of the GFC means we may not fully comprehend its impact internationally.
On his tour of Australia, he comments on the state of the Australian economy, particularly in context of the Global Financial Crisis, the role of natural resources within this economy, and Australia's response to global warming.
Professor Stiglitz travelled all over Australia for three weeks as the inaugural speaker for the Eminent Speaker Series, hosted by the Economic Society of Australia. The series has been initiated to provide an opportunity for industry professionals, government representatives and academics to hear from the world's leading economists in an open forum. - Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Joseph Stiglitz was chief economist at the World Bank until January 2000. Before that, he was the chairman of President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001. He is currently a finance and economics professor at Columbia University. He is the author of Globalization and Its Discontents and The Roaring Nineties.
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On the sidelines of the Invest10 investment forum in Geneva, the editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday that ultra-low interest rates were making it difficult to value assets in developed economies, and that countries like Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam would do better short term.
“US and European interest rates are negative in real terms, the rate of inflation is significantly higher than what governments are saying,” Mr Faber said. “You can see it when you pay for your insurance premiums, your groceries, your child’s pre-kindergarten schooling in New York there has been a loss of pricing power for most people.” Read Full Story >>>>
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
Global Financial Collapse Is Coming 2013
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Corporatism has transformed our capitalist system into this fascist
nightmare....
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The Fundamentals Have Never Been Better For Gold
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"The fundamentals have never been better for gold. The fact that there’s
so much negativity...
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