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INTERNATIONAL. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor says the next round of quantitative easing may disappoint investors and may trigger a market correction, ultimately pushing the Fed to launch QE3, QE4, QE5 and many more QE's.
Speaking with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness" on Tuesday, Faber said the next round of quantitative easing will be interesting to watch as a lot of QE2 has already been discounted and may have the unintended consequence of prompting a market correction.
"Back in July- August, investors were very bearish on the market. What then happened is that September was very strong and October was a reasonably good month... and the market has gone from a low on July 1st of 1010 on the S&P, to close to 1200," he said. Read full article >>>>
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discusses the potential impact of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve on stocks. Faber, speaking with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness," says more monetary easing could disappoint investors and may prompt a correction in U.S. stocks. (Source: Bloomberg)
Marc Faber : ....I think QE2 will be interesting to watch , basically what we have is , back in July august investors were very bearish on the market and they talked about the The Hindenburg Omen and that everything would crash and so forth ...and what then happened is that September was very strong and October was reasonably good month as well , and the market has gone from a low on July first of 1010 on the S&P to close to 1200 , and so a lot of QE2 has been discounted and if you were mister Bernanke I suppose that you would probably disappoint investor somewhat with QE2 and watch once the market reaction , if the market really sell-off you can then increase QE2 or launch QE3 , and QE4 and QE5 and so forth , they'll be many more QEs ......etc.... Marc Faber : ....I think that a correction is overdue, but I wouldn’t think the bear market is around the corner. I think on a correction there will be buying opportunity and I think we will have a crack up boom in stocks.....
If we’re not careful the U.S. could suffer “Japanese disease”, Stephen Roach, Yale Professor and Morgan Stanley’s non- executive Asia chairman recently wrote in a note to clients.
Roach expounds on that idea in the accompanying interview, recorded at The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering in New York City.
The message is simple: The U.S. has learned nothing from Japan. If it continues on the path of QE2, “Japanese disease” is likely to spread like a pandemic throughout the globe, he warns. "I am increasingly worried that the world economy is at risk of falling into a Japanese-like quagmire." read full article >>>>>
Columbia Professor and Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz to TechTicker in an interview taped at The Economist's Buttonwood Gathering: "The fact some of the banks paid back what was given to them on very favorable terms...is just a drop in the bucket compared to damage done to the economy," Stiglitz says "If the U.S. government had provided money to ordinary business at zero interest rates what would our economy be like?," Stiglitz wonders. "What we did is give zero rates to banks, they then lent at much higher interest rates; that's the recapitalization. That's the gift."
Marc Faber : ....I think QE2 will be interesting to watch , basically what we have is , back in July august investors were very bearish on the market and they talked about the The Hindenburg Omen and that everything would crash and so forth ...and what then happened is that September was very strong and October was reasonably good month as well , and the market has gone from a low on July first of 1010 on the S&P to close to 1200 , and so a lot of QE2 has been discounted and if you were mister Bernanke I suppose that you would probably disappoint investor somewhat with QE2 and watch once the market reaction , if the market really sell-off you can then increase QE2 or launch QE3 , and QE4 and QE5 and so forth , they'll be many more QEs ......etc....
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discusses the potential impact of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve on stocks. Faber, speaking with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness," says more monetary easing could disappoint investors and may prompt a correction in U.S. stocks. (Source: Bloomberg) Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discusses the potential impact of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve on stocks.
.. the future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults, and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society” writes Marc Faber in his latest publication of The Gloom, Boom and Doom report.
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discusses the potential impact of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve on stocks.
Marc Faber : ....I think QE2 will be interesting to watch , basically what we have is , back in July august investors were very bearish on the market and they talked about the The Hindenburg Omen and that everything would crash and so forth ...and what then happened is that September was very strong and October was reasonably good month as well , and the market has gone from a low on July first of 1010 on the S&P to close to 1200 , and so a lot of QE2 has been discounted and if you were mister Bernanke I suppose that you would probably disappoint investor somewhat with QE2 and watch once the market reaction , if the market really sell-off you can then increase QE2 or launch QE3 , and QE4 and QE5 and so forth , they'll be many more QEs ......etc....
Mon. Oct. 25 2010 | The dollar's slump could be set to get far worse and if the dollar index takes out last year's low it could pass into the investment category labeled "toxic waste", Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.
No matter what central bankers and the cheerleading, mostly useless academics who surround them pronounce in their self-created aura of infinite academic “delicacy and refinement”, under the auspices of the Fed they will do precisely one thing: print, print, and print. Sadly, as Mignon McLaughlin observed, “The know-nothings are, unfortunately, seldom the do-nothings.”
October 22, 2010 -- In a panel about getting America back from the depths of economic despair at The Daily Beast's Innovators Summit in New Orleans, Niall Ferguson, historian and Harvard Business School professor, told Sir Harold Evans that, "The Chinese are more committed to capitalism than we are."
Marc Faber: Yes. And also I’d like to point out that in an economic system you can always have, in some sectors of the economy, deflation and then in the other sectors inflation. And we have now a global economy. I can assure you, you can go anywhere in the world – whether it’s Brazil, Africa, Asia, Central Asia, Russia.
The price level today is of course much higher than 20 years ago or ten years ago. So the US and western Europe, they may have on an international scale a bias towards maybe deflating a little bit, certainly. Real wages are deflating. But in emerging economies you have a lot of inflation. In some countries you have food prices going up annually at 20 percent per annum. And nobody can tell me that his energy bill is today lower than it was ten years ago.
Because the price of oil is much higher. It is up from ten dollars a barrel to say eighty dollars a barrel. via the Daily Reckoning
The Daily Reckoning's Eric Fry sat down with the Gloom Boom and Doom Report's Dr. Marc Faber to get his opinion on where the global economy is headed
Marc Faber: Well,you know the world is in transition and you have some trends that are favorable and other trends that are no favorable. So I think it’s not a question to be ultra-bearish or ultra-bullish but to try to identify where there are opportunities. And I believe, in general, we live through very interesting times in the sense that the weight of the global economy is shifting to emerging economies....And we’ll have volatility in emerging economies, but in general I think that as a percent of world’s GDP, you will find in 10 20 years time countries like India, China, Vietnam, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, Russia, Central Asia will have a much larger weight and also a much larger say in the global economic affairs and political affairs. And that will lead to a lot of tension and volatilities in asset markets.... Marc Faber : ...... if you really think through the deflation scenario then it would mean that the economy in the western world, notably in the US, is very weak. So what happens if the economy is very weak under the Obama administration, the fiscal deficit goes up not down. The government tanks as a percent of economy expands. Monetary policies will have another huge easy move, or another extraordinary measure increasing the effects balance sheet. These are all factors that then lead eventually to more inflation.Even if you have an environment where GDP per capita in real terms, inflation adjustment goes down. The government will of course lie about it. They will make it look good with all statistical adjustments they can use. The rate will go down as it has for the last ten years, but asset markets can go up very strongly....etc.... via www.dailyreckoning.com
"The currency war can be solved one way: with austerity in the U.S.," "The U.S. needs to redirect the economy to R&D, education and infrastructure expenditure, but instead they want to get spending going again." Marc Faber told reporters at a Russian investment conference today in London.
Marc Faber :"...I have cash and because I am in the investment business, I benefit when markets go up. So my asset allocation into equities does not have to be as high as, say, somebody else’s is.
If I put a gun to your head and if I tell you, ‘Marc, lock a trade for next three years, only one trade, long/short you take your pick but only one trade,’ which will you open and keep it open for next three years? Identify that golden trade for us.
In three years or 10 years time, precious metals will be higher than they are today. But we may have a correction coming in the next, say, three months. But in general, when I look at the risk and the reward, it is very likely that precious metals will continue to perform reasonably well. But if S&P drops to around 950, then the Fed will again massively ease and print money. So the surprise could actually be that in nominal terms, equity markets actually go up. They may not go up in gold terms, but they may go up quite strongly in nominal terms. So I would not be overly bearish about equities. ..." in www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber : My worst investment decisions so far is to lend money to friends. So far, it has all came to zero.
Shorting the Nasdaq in 1998 was also a disaster, and it will remain, in my life as an investment advisor and fund manager, a very black spot. The damage was considerable.
Marc Faber : Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new “credit bubble, “Instead of interest rates' going down, they could start to go up. Instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen,” Marc Faber told reporters during a forum in Seoul, South Korea, last week. “I'm ultrabearish on everything, but I believe you'll be better off owning shares than government bonds,” he added. In 1987 Dr.Marc Faber also warned his clients to cash out before the Black Monday on Wall Street. He made them handsome profits by forecasting the burst in the Japanese Bubble in 1990. He correctly predicted the collapse in US gaming stocks in 1993; and he foresaw the Asia-Pacific financial crisis of 1997/98 and the resulting global volatility. Dr Doom motto is "Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost be right"
James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, and Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc., talk about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, the labor market and the dollar.
Dr Doom Marc Faber told the German newspaper Handelsblatt that bond yields will rise massively and U.S. government bonds could eventually become worthless as central banks worldwide , led by the Federal Reserve, keep on printing more money in an effort to boost economies, “Over the next 10 years, we won’t see any restrictive monetary policy anymore and no real interest rates above zero,” mac Faber was reported saying to the German newspaper . Bond yields will “rise massively,” Marc Faber explained.
Oct. 14 2010 | The Basel III rules to strengthen bank capital are not enough to avoid another financial crisis, as James Turley, global chairman of Ernst & Young believes more needs to be done on the regulatory front. He makes his case to CNBC's Chloe Cho.
Wed. Oct. 13 2010 | Princeton University professor Paul Krugman, says China is the "bad guy" in the currency war as it is behaving badly by having an artificially weak yuan even as it is tightening policy. He states his case to CNBC's Chloe Cho.
Wed. Oct. 13 2010 | While many have said more QE will do little to help boost economic growth and will severely weaken fiscal positions, Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman has been arguing for not just more stimulus, but to the tune of trillions of dollars. He makes his case to CNBC's Chloe Cho.
Oct. 12 2010 | Mongolian Mining Corp is set to debut on the Hong Kong market today. In this First on CNBC interview, its executive director & chairman Odjargal Jambaljamts, sheds more light on its corporate strategy going forward, with CNBC's Bernard Lo, Lisa Oake & Sri Jegarajah.
“Instead of interest rates going down, they could start to go up, instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen,” “I’m ultra-bearish on everything, but I believe you’ll be better off owning shares than government bonds.” Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new “credit bubble,” Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told reporters during a forum in Seoul today 12 Oct 2010.
One of the wisest and most trusted investment advisors in the world, Dr Marc Faber says that interest rates will be going up within three months after the bond market passes ‘an important inflection point’.
This is exactly the opposite of what the US Federal Reserve is promising, and is bound to turn global financial markets upside down. Higher interest rates will strengthen the dollar rather than weaken it, while the value of bond holdings all over the globe will be decimated. read entire article
http://inflation.us/
Helping Americans Prepare for Hyperinflation.
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How Gold and Silver are Warning U.S.
Gold is Sounding an Alarm Few in the Mainstream Media Want to Discuss
The questions is - Why are Gold and Silver Price Alarms going off?
First, Western World budget deficits are now totally uncontrolled. Debt is esentially destroying the Western World
Second, The Obama administration has saddled us with enough debt at the federal level to last three generations all in the name of "stimulus".
Third, The US Federal Reserve is Insolvent and Bankrupt They have flooded the system with liquidity through Quantitative Easing
They have loaded their balance sheet with worthless loan paper and reduced interest rates to 0% for over 20 months
And What have been the results? Paralyzed job growth., record unemployment, record food stamps, and record poverty levels.
Gold and Silver are sounding the Alarm, but Food and Energy price increases will soon follow.
The face of Inflation has recently reared its ugly head in commodity prices.
The Commodity sector is driving food prices to levels not seen since 2008. (Graph of Commodities prices)
When higher commodity prices translate into $500 grocery bills, recession weary americans may go into economic shock.
Energy Prices have stayed in check, but this may be the calm before the oil price storm.
When oil and energy prices rise rapidly, home heating bills, home cooling bills and gasoline prices will join the long list of soaring costs nationwide.
Remember when gasoline went to $5 dollars per gallon? A sheer panic ripped across this country. It's coming again, but be prepared for the prices to stay
The combination of skyhigh food and gasoline prices may be the final nail in the coffin of the American Middle Class.
Travelling with Physical Gold Coins as insurance will soon become the norm. In many parts of the world the 1996 $50 or $100 US note is worthless because of the quality of counterfeits being printed internationally.
In Europe, American travellers are learning that the US Dollar is untradeable on the street. And Personally, 1 gold coin got me out of a very bad situation in Mexico City during the H1N1 outbreak.
Make no mistake about what you are seeing, especially with the price action of gold and silver.
Both metals are signifying a loss of confidence in the Dollar and particularly in its management team.
The Price of gold is no longer mental speculation, but rather reality hiding in plain sight.
The Day when every American recognizes paper bills as trash and gold and silver as true money, is almost here.
Dr Doom Marc Faber will be a key speaker at the New Orleans 2010 Investment Conference www.neworleansconference.com ,which will be taking place October 27-30. Other speakers include Newt Gingrich, Brien Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, and Charles Krauthammer. Marc Faber's intervention will be under the title 'Global inflation and the Commodities Boom , governments are cranking up the printing presses but not all commodities will benefit....'
By: Nathaniel Crawford Marc Faber is out with his monthly report in which he discusses quantitative easing, equity markets, the dollar, gold, and other commodities. Here are a few highlights:
1. Equity Markets--Faber was correct last month in predicting a rally based upon extremely negative investor sentiment. He is more cautious about October because stocks are very overbought according to the % of stock above their 50 day moving average. Another reason for concern, is that after a strong September, markets often fall sharply in October and November. He is underweight equities right now. read entire article
Marc Faber :"I cannot tell you on which date the S&P will hit 950. But the case is simply that some people say the S&P will drop to 400. I have maintained since March 6, 2009 that 666 on the S&P was a major low and that we will not go below that level. This is still my view. I think a correction is still overdue, but not new lows and afterwards they will print and print and print and the equity prices will go higher. More than that, I do not know. " in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., and James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, talk with Margaret Brennan about the U.S. economy on Bloomberg Television's ``InBusiness.''
The Federal Reserve is Responsible for the last 2 Decades of Economic Turmoil
1. Beginning with the Savings & Loan crisis in 1990, each engineered crisis is growing in intensity and carnage. First, there was the Internet bubble crash then the Real Estate bubble meltdown and now we are at the footsteps of an unprecedented acceleration of price increases in food and energy.
In 2007, commodity prices soared when there was actually a slowdown in the global economy. There was no reason for commodity prices to go ballistic at that time, except for federal reserve intervention. The price of oil went from $78 to $147. High gas prices actually burdened the average US consumer with an additional "tax" of five hundred billion dollars.
That 500 billion dollar "hidden tax" was ONE of many reasons, we are IN the current Great (NON) Recession.
(The US Dollar Index is Worthless)
2. On CNBC they often point to the dollar index and state that a weaker dollar is good for the export economy. Currently US Dollar index looks bad - but it actually means nothing because it is being compared to other world wide fiat currencies undergoing massive debasement. Worldwide central banks, seem to be in a currency death dance, racing each other to the bottom in the name of international competitiveness.
Gold and Silver is the Only way to test the Strength of our Currency.
The dollar is weakening against other currencies but when compared against the price of precious metals and raw materials we can see THE THE TRUE VALUE OF A US FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE
(GOLD AND SILVER ARE NOT EXPENSIVE)
3. The truth is Gold and Silver prices are just Getting Started. If you pay attention the public is selling not buying gold (cash4gold commercial)
What happened during the Internet bubble? The average Joe was piling into tech stocks and many individuals were giving up there jobs to day trade full time
And we all know what transpired during the last death throws of the Real estate bubble. People were buying at the peak 3, 4, 5, 10 home and flipping every WHICH way to make AS LITTLE AS 20,000
The common JOE, BUYS into manias...When all your neighbors are hoarding and trading gold, and telling you real estate is a waste of time and money, it may be the time to look at diversifying some your investments out of gold and silver.
WHAT I SEE PERSONALLY IS
10 years of Real Estate Stagnation & Depreciation &
10 years of Gold & Silver Appreciation
4 (JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK TO THE US)
TO QUOTE Dr. Marc Faber: "COMPANIES would be out of THEIR minds, with health care reforms, government interventions and the uncertainty about future taxes in the US, to even consider expanding in the US.
Corporations are expanding in China, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Africa and Brazil. The business world is an international place today, and if you run a corporation, whether you employ 50 or 10,000 PEOPLE, you can choose where you invest your money in terms of capital spending.
Where do you want to expand factories? If I employed people in the US, I would rather think of reducing the 50 employees RATHER THEN HIRING MORE.
source : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doSpeRyBHw8
Marc Faber :"Basically I am not very keen to buy emerging economies at the present time and I would rather lighten up positions. As far as the equity allocation between equities, bonds, cash and precious metals, commodities and real estate is concerned, that depends on every individual. It is like if you go to the doctor and you tell him ‘oh, what kind of pills shall I take?’ That depends very much on the individual, on the status of his health, on his ailments and so you cannot generalize.
But for me, I like Asian real estate, I like equities in Asia, I still like precious metals and I like in particular physical precious metals. I also own gold shares because I am the chairman of several resource related companies, mining companies in the exploration domain and so I own them. But my preference is for physical gold and silver and then I own real estate and I have some bonds not because I particularly like bonds, but I look at corporate bonds as kind of an equity with a relatively high dividend. " Marc Faber "Yes, I still like these commodities (agri-commodities), but because they moved up so strongly, I would be a little bit careful about mortgaging my house and buying all these commodities. They will continue to move higher, but corrections can occur. What disturbs me is this kind of universal belief that you have to be in commodities, you have to be in precious metals, you have to be in equities and not in cash because governments - in others words central banks - will keep on printing money and the value of paper money will go down. I agree with that but as I pointed out, we can still get meaningful corrections as occurred in 2008. "
Marc Faber : "Basically I am not very keen to buy emerging economies at the present time and I would rather lighten up positions. As far as the equity allocation between equities, bonds, cash and precious metals, commodities and real estate is concerned, that depends on every individual. It is like if you go to the doctor and you tell him ‘oh, what kind of pills shall I take?’ That depends very much on the individual, on the status of his health, on his ailments and so you cannot generalize.
But for me, I like Asian real estate, I like equities in Asia, I still like precious metals and I like in particular physical precious metals. I also own gold shares because I am the chairman of several resource related companies, mining companies in the exploration domain and so I own them. But my preference is for physical gold and silver and then I own real estate and I have some bonds not because I particularly like bonds, but I look at corporate bonds as kind of an equity with a relatively high dividend. " in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber :" I am still positive about oil and I am aware that some analysts predict oil prices to drop to $30 and copper prices to drop 70%, but the fact is simply the oil demand now-a-days in emerging economies exceeds for the first time in the history of capitalism. The oil demand in the developed world and this oil demand in emerging economies will continue to go up. So the demand side looks quite strong.
On the other hand, you have prices between $70 and $80 and someone could argue well that that is a very high price and so maybe prices will temporarily decline - that may be the case. But I would like to point out that for any oil company to go and explore and drill for new oil, the oil price has to be around $70. Otherwise, they would not do it because the marginal cost of new production is around this level.
Secondly, unlike say a farmer who harvests, oil is a finite resource in the sense that once you pump it and you burn it, it is no longer there. The farmer can harvest his crop every year again and again and again. In the case of oil, once you pump it, it is gone and you use it. So in most countries, oil production is going down and oil reserves are going down. In other words, the world will hit one day peak oil, the way the US hit peak oil in 1970. So the dynamics between the demand and the supply side look actually quite promising in the long run. " in www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber:"I still like the agricultural commodities, but they have had a very big move - in some cases 50% - over the last 3 months. So potentially, we will get kind of a setback here, a correction. But in general, I am still positive on agricultural commodities and I am still positive about precious metals whereby precious metals have become very popular lately and they have been very strong, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium and a correction is also overdue.
The whole world is now optimistic and positioned to take advantage of forever expansionary monetary policies by buying assets, precious metals, real estate, equities, and everybody believes that the central banks in the world will print and print and print and print. That is correct, they will do that, but they printed, printed and printed and we still saw a financial crisis in 2008. So I can print and print and print, and you can still have big corrections in the market. But I believe that if the S&P in the US drops 15-20% to around 900-950, the Fed would come out not with this quantitative easing No. 2, but with quantitative easing No. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 until the asset markets go up again. They are going to print and print and print. " in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
The Best Kept Secrets of The Dollar
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