Marc Faber`s Investment and Trading Ideas - A Tracking Blog About Dr. Marc Faber , Daily Tracking of Dr. Marc Faber Investment Strategy , Market analysis & Outlook and Media appearances
"You don't want to short it here but for the longer period the euro is going much lower," "In a year and a half or two years it's really going to be a big mess." Charles Nenner, says.
Marc Faber :..."...the terminal value of the dollar is precisely zero, the printing cost of bank note that is the intrinsic value of the dollar. But it will not move there right away. since the formation of the federal reserve, in 1913, the price of gold has gone up from USD 25/oz to over US 1400/oz, In other words the value of a dollar bill has gone down by 97% in gold terms and it took more than a 100 years. Now the next time the value of the dollar declines by 97% won’t take a 100 years I think it will happen in 10-15 years." in www.moneycontrol.com
Nov. 29 2010 | The Euro is coming down against the dollar "based on the fact that the economy in the states is much stronger than in Europe," Charles Nenner, founder and president of Charles Nenner Research, told
CNBC Monday.
Marc Faber :.."What I think its important to understand the cause of the crisis, the cause of the crisis is excessive monetary growth leading to excessive debt growth, to the Nasdaq bubble, to the housing bubble that then led to overconsumption in the US and a symptom of over consumption in the country is always growth in trade deficit that then shifts production overseas because one trade deficit in one country is offset by trade surplus somewhere else. And to simplify matters lets say it was China.
So actually, the US monetary policies have been very good for Asia, specifically for China because it fostered industrial production growth in China, employment growth, wage increases, domestic consumption, increased demand for raw materials, that then lifted commodity prices. For that actually the developing world, the emerging economies including China, India , Vietnam, Brazil and so forth should all send a thank you note to Bernanke...." Marc Faber said in a recent interview with www.moneycontrol.com
Marc Faber:" As you know I have been very critical of the Federal Reserve for the last 20 years because the Federal Reserve with its expansionary monetary policies and without the policy paying attention to excessive credit growth created first the Nasdaq bubble and later on the housing bubble and in 2008 the commodities bubble. So I have been very critical of these policies for a very long time, including of course now QE2 as I was also skeptical about the success of QE1 for the simple reason that the Federal Reserve can control the quantity of the money.
In other words, Bernanke as he said and wrote the US can drop dollar bills from helicopters onto the US, but what they don’t control is where these dollar bills will flow to, and as it happens it went into bubbles in US creating over consumption, and symptom of overconsumption was then the trade and current account deficit that shifted production and capital spending overseas and shifted economic growth to emerging economies and now QE2 what it will do is essentially it will foster bubbles, in commodities, in precious metals and in the capital markets of emerging economies where the capital will flow to." in moneycontrol.com
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a phone interview 19 Nov with Bloomberg Television speaking about Chinese economy ....:"....I think we already have a property bubble but it does no mean that the whole economy will go into recession , and I will add to it eve if there is a slow down in China it is a very large country like the US was in the 19th century and still is today , so you can have some sectors of the economy going into recession and other sectors still expanding.....
The clampdown on property speculation may prompt investors to turn to the nation’s stock market, Marc Faber said. Still, shares are “fully priced” and Chinese investors may instead become big buyers of gold via ET Now
The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster, "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."
Nov. 25 2010 | Since the Fed's announcement of QE2, Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, has noticed a tremendous amount of inflow into emerging market funds. CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis asks if he's worried about bubbles being formed.
Matt Taibbi's latest piece focuses on the Rocket Docket court set up in Jacksonville to expedite a backlog of foreclosure cases in the state of Florida.... A top Treasury Department official said Tuesday that federal investigators looking into problems with mortgage foreclosures throughout the country have found widespread and “inexcusable” breakdowns in basic controls in the foreclosure process. “These problems must be fixed,” Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr told members of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the newly formed panel of regulators responsible for identifying potential risks to the financial system
“There’s no other way out but to print money,” “In the long run, all paper money will go exactly to its intrinsic value, which is zero.” Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said at a forum in Seoul
Marc Faber in Bloomberg : ..."We already have a property bubble in China, but that does not mean that the whole economy will go into recession. And I would add to it, that even if there is a slowdown in China, its an huge country, like the US was in the 19th century and still is, so you can have a some sectors of the economy going into recession and other sectors still expanding."
"Everybody is trading on the inside somehow or another, so this isn't particularly surprising," Taibbi says. "A lot of sources I talked to suggested this is endemic to the entire culture.""The real issue here is that it's everywhere," he says. "And the fear is there's no end to it." Taibbi, who became widely known in financial circles in 2009 when he dubbed Goldman Sachs "a vampire squid on the face of humanity," says he is not cynical by nature. "But this Wall Street stuff is overwhelming," he says. "The more you look into it, the less you see the way out. The government seems so completely helpless to do anything positive in this situation." read more>>>>
Nobel LaureateJoseph Stiglitzshares his thoughts on the importance of education for the future health of our economy, and how we should take advantage of college access non-profits in order to leverage the effect of the stimulus package.
Joseph Stiglitz, University Professor, Columbia University, Nobel Prize in Economics, 2001, spoke on "A Half Century of Changing Perspectives on Development" as part of the Williams College Center for Development Economics' 50th Anniversary, October 2010. More on the event and CDE here: http://cde.williams.edu/50th-annivers...
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Matt Taibbi, author of Griftopia, says America is devolving into a thieves paradise because of the actions of "vampire squids" like Goldman Sachs and former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan.
Marc Faber recently in an interview with bloomberg said that anything less than $1 trillion From Bernanke could disappoint investors and might prompt a correction in U.S. stocks. Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, and Barron's Roundtable member, anticipates meaningful market correction in 2010. Mining and agriculture will be top performers within commodity sector.Marc Faber is currently recommending agriculture commodities, and the accumulation of precious metals although he does no roll out some correction before the end of the year before the prices shoot up in 2011
Distinguished law scholar Elizabeth Warren teaches contract law, bankruptcy, and commercial law at Harvard Law School. She is an outspoken critic of America's credit economy, which she has linked to the continuing rise in bankruptcy among the middle-class.
Professor Elizabeth WARREN + Bill MAHER US USURY [excessive interest incorporated onto any debt].
Now the NEW WORLD ORDER message goes out to the World from the US
TRICK + TRAP + SCREW everyone else = the Corporation Benefits The US Citizen in the WEAKER bargaining position is ABUSED The US Corporation is identified as the STRONGEST bargaining position. Anything for the US Corporation to BOOST PROFITS - that's OK?
In 1979 USURY LAWS OF US WERE DESTROYED. INEQUALITY OF BARGAINING POSITION Whatever happened to the Judge as Independent Arbiter?
Or is the Judiciary now the representative of the Corporation - as FREEMASON co-optee?
Has the PUBLIC OATH of the Judiciary now been compromised by the PRIVATE OATH of FREEMASONRY?
Nobel Prize winner and renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz has been very pessimistic about the global economy in the new afterword to his book Freefall.
This video explains the basic effects of inflation of the money supply. I'll be putting together a video on Hyperinflation, hopefully before it happens.
NATS - Money Counting
"A solution being offered now to get the economy back on track was to dramatically increase the money supply"
0:10 Tim Shaughnessy - Professor of Economics - Louisiana State University
"So we had the T.A.R.P. bailouts, bailouts of the financial organizations and the car companies. All of this was done through printing of money"
NATS - Money Printing
"By printing more money means that eventually there's going to be more dollars out there chasing the arguably the same amount of goods which that's the definition"
0:28 Chris Combs - Professor of Economics - Louisiana State University
"of inflation right. When you have more money chasing the same amount of goods all it's going to do is raise the price of goods"
"Which provides dollars to these organizations that need it but what does it do to the value of the dollars that are already in exsistance? Well it's going to drive the value of our dollars down"
"We're looking at the big picture, and we are saying ok, we can fix the short term problem maybe. Depends on what camp you come out of whether it will work or not. But even if it does work, and it might not work, but even if it does, the problem is inflation tomorrow"
"On the one hand you have buyers increasing their demand for goods. They say to themselves, you know this goodis going to be a lot more expensive"
1:15 Joe Salerno - Professor of Economics - Lugwig Von Mises Institute
"Three months down the road, or even a few weeks down the road. That's how fast prices are increasing. And therefore I'm going to buy it today. But if everybody starts to think that way that will drive prices up even faster and cause greater inflation and it becomes a vicious cycle. At that point you get a breakdown in the economy"
NATS - Printing Reciept
1:37 Dr. Loren Scott - Professor of Economics - Louisiana State University Baton Rouge
"I think this is a functionof the fact that suddenly the government is running, not just deficits, but enormus deficits. People were very worried the deficits increasing under George Bush and they said my gosh. Look at these defecits under George Bush. I mean the 1st year defecit under Obama is just straight through the floor. And if by any stupid decision they decide to put another stimulus package in, it will really be through the floor"
NATS - Inflating the Dollar Baloon
"The dollar keeps being inflated"
NATS - Inflating the Dollar Baloon
"We are running these hudge budget defecits that we try to pay off through increasing the money supply"
NATS - Inflating the Dollar Baloon
"And so people are seeing that fiscal policy, monetary policy doesn't seem to be very well under control in the U.S. so the attractiveness of the dollar falls because of it"
NATS - POP
"We've continued on a path of false prosperity thinking that we can bring about prosperity by creating money and having artificially low interest rates. The true path that we want to get back to os a prosperity based on the resources that we do have and the voluntary savings and credit we are capable of generating in a free market economy"
______
Teaser information prior to this PKG
Tim Shaughnessy - Professor of Economics - Louisiana State University
"If they try to fix the recession it could lead to prices rising even more because the way that the government does it is by trying to increase its own spending and everyone elses spending. Either the government will just out right buy more things itself or it will give tax cuts, stimulus check or whatever to get consumers to spend more"
Chris Combs - Professor of Economics - Louisiana State University
"What's the payoff? If we fix the problem now but then we have to pay higher prices in the future how are we better off from that"
"The increase demandfor products from government or consumers leads to prices going up. So if you have a problem where inflation is an issue and you are trying to fix a recession, you could fix the recession but you are going to get even more inflation on top of that"
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks about the outlook for the U.S. equity market and China's economy. Faber, speaking with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack," also discusses Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's speech at a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt today. (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold is in a 2nd stage of a bull market. We will see a more rapid price appreciation than in the past years. Price target until 2015: 8000 Dollar. Price manipulation has come to an end. Gold as natural alternative to currencies. Chances of hyperinflation 100%.Gold prohibition possible.
Marc Faber : “US and European interest rates are negative in real terms, the rate of inflation is significantly higher than what governments are saying,” “You can see it when you pay for your insurance premiums, your groceries, your child’s pre-kindergarten schooling in New York there has been a loss of pricing power for most people.”
Marc Faber : ...Basically the bond market in the US has been in a bull market since 1981. In my view, the bull market ended on December 18th, 2008 when the 10 years treasury yield reached a low of 2.08% and the 30 years yield of 2.53%. But the bulls on bonds - the so-called deflationists - will maintain that bonds will continue to rally and that the 10 years yield and the 30 year yields will drop to between, say, one-one quarter per cent and two per cent.
I do not think that this will be the case because if the economy weakens again and you have deflation, that would be required to get these yields down there. You would have further massive fiscal stimulus and as a result of that, the deficit and the government’s debt go up and then the interest payments on the government debt go up. The ability of the government to pay the interest on its debt will diminish if the credit quality goes down. For that reason, I do believe that we will see new lows in interest rates.
So we had the bull market in bonds that lasted 1981 to 2008 - in other words 27 years - and now we are in a bear market for bonds that may last 20 years and bring yields to record highs that would mean on the 10 years note a yield of over 15%. .... via economictimes.indiatimes.com
Democracy NOW! - DN! - We are joined by Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz - American economist and professor at Columbia University. Author of Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy now in paperback. As the Obama administration rejects a foreclosure moratorium and austerity protests grip Europe, we assess the state of the US and global economy with Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, author of Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy. Stiglitz backs calls for a foreclosure moratorium and says opponents of a new government stimulus "don't understand basic economics." On war, Stiglitz says Iraq and Afghanistan are "the first wars in America's history financed totally on the credit card." Published with written permission from democracynow.org. http://www.democracynow.org Provided to you under Democracy NOW! creative commons license. Copyright for broadcast belongs to democracynow.org, an independent non-profit user funded news media, recognized and broadcast world wide.
"Excessive liquidity and dropping dollar bills onto the United States from helicopters like Mr. Ben Bernanke suggested—the problem with that is he doesn't know where the money will flow,""In this case, the excess liquidity flows into emerging economies and precious metals, and new bubbles are building up that at some point in the future will burst.
"Then you will have another problem on your hands the way you had a problem when the Nasdaq bubble burst and the housing bubble burst."Marc Faber author and editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told CNBC last week
Troika Dialog - the conference sponsor has kindly granted me a written permission to publish this video.
For more information about The Russia Forum and original (full version) video please visit: http://2010.therussiaforum.com/news/n...
Marc Faber, editor & publisher, Gloom, Boom & Doom report joins Trading Day as a co-host. : BNN Business News Network from Canada.... November 8, 2010 : Dr. Doom Co-hosts Trading Day 11-08-10
Marc Faber :...I cannot tell you on which date the S&P will hit 950. But the case is simply that some people say the S&P will drop to 400. I have maintained since March 6, 2009 that 666 on the S&P was a major low and that we will not go below that level. This is still my view. I think a correction is still overdue, but not new lows and afterwards they will print and print and print and the equity prices will go higher. More than that, I do not know. ... via economictimes.indiatimes.com
US Treasuries or Asian Stocks? In the second part of this interview By The Daily Reckoning's Eric Fry with the Gloom Boom & Doom Report's Marc Faber, he explains why the gravy is out of the US Treasury rally...what part of the world he would choose to make his fortune in right now...and the importance of a diversified portfolio of assets.
Nov. 9 2010 | Discussing the real cause of the financial crisis, with Frank Berlage, Multilateral Partners Global Advisory Group, and Marc Faber, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.
Marc Faber :....."...Basically I am not very keen to buy emerging economies at the present time and I would rather lighten up positions. As far as the equity allocation between equities, bonds, cash and precious metals, commodities and real estate is concerned, that depends on every individual. It is like if you go to the doctor and you tell him ‘oh, what kind of pills shall I take?’ That depends very much on the individual, on the status of his health, on his ailments and so you cannot generalise.
But for me, I like Asian real estate, I like equities in Asia, I still like precious metals and I like in particular physical precious metals. I also own gold shares because I am the chairman of several resource related companies, mining companies in the exploration domain and so I own them. But my preference is for physical gold and silver and then I own real estate and I have some bonds not because I particularly like bonds, but I look at corporate bonds as kind of an equity with a relatively high dividend. " in an interview with the economictimes.indiatimes.com dated 28 Sep, 2010
Nov. 7 2010 | The Fed's move to pump another $600 billion to prop up the economy is not going to work, says Uwe Parpart, chief economist & strategist, Asia at Cantor Fitzgerald. He tells CNBC's Bernard Lo, Oriel Morrison & Adam Bakhtiar why this move will backfire.
Matt Taibbi author of : "Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America" on the presidents handling of the economy and health-care reform.
Join Gonzalo Lira live online Thursday, November 18th, 2010 for "Hyperinflation in America: Lessons and Opportunities from a Currency Collapse." Financial Survival Radio host Jay Carter will be the moderator as Gonzalo presents specific information about how to prepare financially and mentally for the coming dollar collapse. He will also take live questions from online attendees.
Nov. 5 2010 | Is now the time to buy in to commodities or is it too late, with George Gero, global futures vp of RBC Capital Markets; Philip Gotthelf, president & commodities analyst at Equidex; and CNBC's Sharon Epperson & Maria Bartiromo.
"What is “QE”? The first round of “quantitative easing” was a program announced by Ben Bernanke last March in response to the financial crisis, ending in March of this year. In what will soon be known as “QE1”(i.e. once QE2 is announced), Bernanke printed over a trillion dollars out of thin air, then used that money to buy, among other things, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury Bonds. In other words, the government was printing money to a) lend to itself and b) prop up the housing market, with Wall Street stepping in to take a big cut. " Matt Taibbi on The Fed's Magic Money-Printing Machine, Act 2 http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/...
****** Quantitative easing *******
The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system. This policy is usually invoked when the normal methods to control the money supply have failed, i.e the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero.
A central bank implements QE by first crediting its own account with money it creates ex nihilo ("out of nothing").[1] It then purchases financial assets, including government bonds, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions in a process referred to as open market operations. The purchases, by way of account deposits, give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money, and thus hopefully induce a stimulation of the economy, by the process of deposit multiplication from increased lending in the fractional reserve banking system.
Risks include the policy being more effective than intended, spurring hyperinflation, or the risk of not being effective enough, if banks opt simply to sit on the additional cash in order to increase their capital reserves in a climate of increasing defaults in their present loan portfolio.[1]
"Quantitative" refers to the fact that a specific quantity of money is being created; "easing" refers to reducing the pressure on banks.[2] However, another explanation is that the name comes from the Japanese-language expression for "stimulatory monetary policy", which uses the term "easing".[3] Quantitative easing is sometimes colloquially described as "printing money" although in reality the money is simply created by electronically adding a number to an account. Examples of economies where this policy has been used include Japan during the early 2000s, and the United States, the United Kingdom and the Eurozone during the global financial crisis of 2008--the present, since the programme is suitable for economies where the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero.
Marc Faber : ....I think QE2 will be interesting to watch , basically what we have is , back in July august investors were very bearish on the market and they talked about the The Hindenburg Omen and that everything would crash and so forth ...and what then happened is that September was very strong and October was reasonably good month as well , and the market has gone from a low on July first of 1010 on the S&P to close to 1200 , and so a lot of QE2 has been discounted and if you were mister Bernanke I suppose that you would probably disappoint investor somewhat with QE2 and watch once the market reaction , if the market really sell-off you can then increase QE2 or launch QE3 , and QE4 and QE5 and so forth , they'll be many more QEs ......etc....
Anything under a Trillion Dollars Will Dissapoint Market
Weak Dollar Strong Gold Silver Industrial Commodities
Correction then Boom in Stocks and Commodities
Reasonably Positive on Equites
Cash and Bonds Negative
China Economic Pullback Overheated
Real Cost of living 8-15%
Food 50% of living expenses
Nov. 3 2010 | CNBC's Rick Santelli discusses how the market reacted to the Fed decision, with Bill Gross, PIMCO co-founder; Kenneth Heebner, CGM Realty Fund; and CNBC's Bob Pisani, Erin Burnett and Steve Liesman.
Marc Faber :.....I am still positive about oil and I am aware that some analysts predict oil prices to drop to $30 and copper prices to drop 70%, but the fact is simply the oil demand now-a-days in emerging economies exceeds for the first time in the history of capitalism. The oil demand in the developed world and this oil demand in emerging economies will continue to go up. So the demand side looks quite strong. On the other hand, you have prices between $70 and $80 and someone could argue well that that is a very high price and so maybe prices will temporarily decline - that may be the case. But I would like to point out that for any oil company to go and explore and drill for new oil, the oil price has to be around $70. Otherwise, they would not do it because the marginal cost of new production is around this level. Secondly, unlike say a farmer who harvests, oil is a finite resource in the sense that once you pump it and you burn it, it is no longer there. The farmer can harvest his crop every year again and again and again. In the case of oil, once you pump it, it is gone and you use it. So in most countries, oil production is going down and oil reserves are going down. In other words, the world will hit one day peak oil, the way the US hit peak oil in 1970. So the dynamics between the demand and the supply side look actually quite promising in the long run. ... Marc Faber in an interview with the economictimes.indiatimes.com dated 28 Sep, 2010
"Whether it's Europe or the U.S., you can't keep sweeping things under the rug and think central bankers...are always going to come in and buy your paper when nobody else will," says CNBC on-air editor Rick Santelli.
Marc Faber :``.....I still like the agricultural commodities, but they have had a very big move - in some cases 50% - over the last 3 months. So potentially, we will get kind of a setback here, a correction. But in general, I am still positive on agricultural commodities and I am still positive about precious metals whereby precious metals have become very popular lately and they have been very strong, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium and a correction is also overdue.
The whole world is now optimistic and positioned to take advantage of forever expansionary monetary policies by buying assets, precious metals, real estate, equities, and everybody believes that the central banks in the world will print and print and print and print. That is correct, they will do that, but they printed, printed and printed and we still saw a financial crisis in 2008. So I can print and print and print, and you can still have big corrections in the market. But I believe that if the S&P in the US drops 15-20% to around 900-950, the Fed would come out not with this quantitative easing No. 2, but with quantitative easing No. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 until the asset markets go up again. They are going to print and print and print. `` in economictimes.indiatimes.com 28 Sep, 2010
Marc Faber :.... In general, when emerging economies go up, commodities also go up because the two are very closely related in the sense that most resources allocated in emerging economies have a very close correlation. Now, when commodity prices go up strongly in a country like India, it benefits some parts of the economy, some segments of the population. For example, if agricultural prices go up, then the rural sector does well. In India, the urbanization rate is just 30%. So if rice prices, sugar prices, cotton price and so forth go up, the rural sector benefits whereby the urban center is frequently squeezed by higher food prices.
So it’s a mixed picture. But in general I would say - if I look at rural areas in Asia , in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and also India - the rural areas are doing very well. So it’s a plus for their economies because by and large the urbanisation rate in the case of India is still relatively low. ... in economictimes.indiatimes.com
Marc Faber recently in an interview with bloomberg said that anything less than $1 trillion From Bernanke could disappoint investors and might prompt a correction in U.S. stocks. Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, and Barron's Roundtable member, anticipates meaningful market correction in 2010. Mining and agriculture will be top performers within commodity sector.Marc Faber is currently recommending agriculture commodities, and the accumulation of precious metals although he does no roll out some correction before the end of the year before the prices shoot up in 2011
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
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