Marc Faber on CNN 03_09_11 :
Marc Faber : ...well all commodity prices have run up very substantially in the last say six months copper oil nickel and so forth ....and all are due for a correction , the question is what happens thereafter and quite frankly I do not think that the world can produce sufficient oil in a Goldilocks scenario where by the developed world Europe the US Japan recovers and the emerging world continues to grow in that case the demand will outstrip the production facilities and so prices will go up if everything looks good and if everything collapses in the world and we have turmoil in the middle east and so forth then obviously supplies will be curtailed very substantially , prices will go ballistic on the upside ..."
"well I thin I have been concerned for quite sometime that in the western world notably in the US we had excessive credit growth , and the excessive credit growth especially in the years 2000 to 2007 caused the financial crisis , and now excessive private credit growth have been replaced by excessive government credit growth , so ...which is even worse , the private sector is actually quite efficient it is the government that is usually inefficient , so I think that we are postponing the problems and one day the hour of truth will happen then the global economy and in particular the financial system with all the derivatives and leverage and so forth will collapse and then you will have a reboot it's like when your computer crashes you have to reboot it " as to how to play this market Marc Faber answers : "I am actually quite optimistic I drive motorcycles in Thailand "
"well I think if you look at different asset classes , cash which is usually the safest in the world and government bonds these two assets classes in my scenario of eventual complete collapse are very dangerous , so then you have asst classes like equities , they can go down of course and you have real estate can also go down , precious metals can also go down but at least you still have something , so I would suggest to investors : if you are ultra pessimistic about the eventual outcome before it'll happen you have massive money printing then you'll have war and in both instances you do not want to be in cash or government bonds you want to be in equities precious metals and commodities and in real estate in the country side "
The above transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog , so it is far from being fully accurate use at your own risk....
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Mark Mobius : Oil Will Extend Gains on Middle East Unrest
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, talks about the outlook for crude oil prices. Mobius also discusses the performance of emerging-market stocks, prospects for equities in Brazil and China, and his investment strategy. He speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television's "Fast Forward." (Source: Bloomberg)
Mark Mobius : investments in Brazil compared to Mexico
Mobius Says Mexico Drug War Doesn’t Deter His Investment
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, talks with Bloomberg's Jonathan J. Levin in Mexico City about the impact of Mexico’s drug violence on his investments in the country. Mobius also discusses Templeton's investments in Brazil compared with Mexico, his desire to see more initial public offerings by Mexican companies and the investment environment in Egypt, Dubai and eastern Europe. (Source: Bloomberg)
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, talks with Bloomberg's Jonathan J. Levin in Mexico City about the impact of Mexico’s drug violence on his investments in the country. Mobius also discusses Templeton's investments in Brazil compared with Mexico, his desire to see more initial public offerings by Mexican companies and the investment environment in Egypt, Dubai and eastern Europe. (Source: Bloomberg)
Marc Faber : Crude will rise before additional production comes into play
Rising crude oil prices has been a matter of grave concern in the past few days. Investment guru Marc Faber believes that crude may rise further before additional production comes into play. We need to find new oil fields and develop them and that is very costly. I would estimate the marginal cost of adding new oil at USD 80 per barrel, he said.
CNBC Tuesday 08 march 2011 : Marc Faber " what we had on the oil market in the last couple of years is essentially reduction of demand from the developed World from the United States western Europe Japan , and continuous growth in the emerging economies , so if you take a very optimistic view of the world namely a global economic recovery demand in the western world will pick up and demand in the emerging world will continue to rise very strongly, and so from a very optimistic point of view, you should be long oil.Of course we have had a huge run up and I think energy shares and oil is due for a correction but in an optimistic scenario you should be long Oil and also other industrial commodities , in a very pessimistic scenario you have to assume that unrest will shift also to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the gulf, and at that stage, maybe production may be curtailed, and in that case, obviously oil would go up ballistically... " Marc Faber told CNBC on Tuesday 08 march 2011 "Oil prices will spike up before additional production will come into play ....yes you can increase the production but to increase the reserves it is very difficult and very costly and the fact is simply that the world is burning more oil than it is adding in reserves every year So the level of overall proven reserves, or the existing oilfields - that production will go down,so you have to find new oil fields or develop new ones over time and that is very costly " Marc Faber added
CNBC Tuesday 08 march 2011 : Marc Faber " what we had on the oil market in the last couple of years is essentially reduction of demand from the developed World from the United States western Europe Japan , and continuous growth in the emerging economies , so if you take a very optimistic view of the world namely a global economic recovery demand in the western world will pick up and demand in the emerging world will continue to rise very strongly, and so from a very optimistic point of view, you should be long oil.Of course we have had a huge run up and I think energy shares and oil is due for a correction but in an optimistic scenario you should be long Oil and also other industrial commodities , in a very pessimistic scenario you have to assume that unrest will shift also to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the gulf, and at that stage, maybe production may be curtailed, and in that case, obviously oil would go up ballistically... " Marc Faber told CNBC on Tuesday 08 march 2011 "Oil prices will spike up before additional production will come into play ....yes you can increase the production but to increase the reserves it is very difficult and very costly and the fact is simply that the world is burning more oil than it is adding in reserves every year So the level of overall proven reserves, or the existing oilfields - that production will go down,so you have to find new oil fields or develop new ones over time and that is very costly " Marc Faber added
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