Marc Faber`s Investment and Trading Ideas - A Tracking Blog About Dr. Marc Faber , Daily Tracking of Dr. Marc Faber Investment Strategy , Market analysis & Outlook and Media appearances
Marc Faber: I would not put all my money in any emerging economy or in any country. I would have a geographical diversification. I would also have a diversification in assets, some commodities, some equities, some bonds, some cash and some real estate. So I would not put all my money into India to start with. - in ET Now
Marc Faber: Markets have peaked out and I think we are in a correction period. We had a huge move in India from the lows in 2009 to the recent highs, and we are coming down now. We may drop another 10-20%, who knows? Longer term I am reasonably positive for the Indian economy or very positive for the Indian economy. But what disturbs me nowadays are less economic factors than geopolitical factors because the friendship between India and America has been renewed and expanded and that is a threat to China and so China is getting closer. They have always been close to Pakistan and that creates a new set of tensions. We could have a lot of volatility in asset markets as a result of geopolitical trends. " - in ET Now 24 June 2011
Marc Faber : No further stimulus. We have to qualify that statement. I think they will end QE2 and not tighten monetary conditions, but there could be a relative tightening the way we had it after the end of QE1 until QE2 was announced last August. So for the next three months or so, asset markets will continue to drift lower. Traditionally the month of May is very weak.Also June and then from June on, we have some seasonal strength developing until the end of July, early August and then we have weak September-October months, seasonally speaking. The markets are oversold at the present time. We could re-bounce somewhat from herein to the end of July and then have another ground draft in October-November, but my forecast is very simple. If the S&P were to drop from here by, say, another 10-20%, for sure, for sure you will get QE3. There is no doubt about this.
Marc Faber : ..In the seventies by in large stocks did badly but there were big fluctuations every year so there was a lot of volatility and also if you bought at the lows of 74 , you actually made money , number two there were two sectors of the market that were very strong , energy and mining these two were very very strong , I think at present time Gold mining shares the exploration companies are quite inexpensive but I would even say that big oil companies are not terribly expenssive or natural gas companies so that is a sector I would eventually look at , I would say in the Gold mining sector you can buy the more established companies like Newmont Mining Corp. or Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold , the more exciting part are the exploration companies but they have also higher risk but for instance NovaGold was at 20 dollars two years ago it went down to about a dollar now it is about 4 , I mean the value of the company could easily be 15 , 20 dollars so there are a lot of companies that are still attractive , in the national gas base I would say a speculative investment Chesapeake Energy very good as gas prices recovers and one day it will recover , it is not easy to play it the recovery and then you have the Oil Companies the Exxon of this world and so forth they are not terribly expensive ..." - in tech ticker
Marc Faber : when Investors are going to realize that fiscal deficits are not going to come down that they'll stay very high , when they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois and when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run I think at that point the dollar will be weak but do not forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro both currencies are sick and so both could go down and ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will also appreciates against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong " -in Bloomberg
Marc Faber : "...First of all it is true that gold has gone up from $252 in 1999 to now $1550 an ounce. However, at the same time over this 11-year period, the quantity of money in the world and the quantity of credit in the world has exploded. So that I could make a case that actually maybe gold is cheaper today than it was in 1999 adjusted for the increase in the quantity of money and credit.Secondly, today we have many more people that have become affluent, just think of the well-to-do people in India, then Indian middle class, the middle class in China, the well-to-do people in China, it has exploded over the last 11 years. And all these people I guarantee you, they are all essentially flooded with US dollars and so for them to take a little bit of their money and park it into gold is a no-brainer in the long run. I go to many conferences every year.They usually ask the audience even at resource conferences, how many of you have more than 5% of their portfolio assets in gold? I have been at a conference in Singapore two days ago, among 500 people involved in real estate, not one had more than 5% of his assets in gold. I guess most of them did not have any gold at all, and so if someone tells me it is a bubble, I can tell you in year 1999-2000, the whole world was gambling in NASDAQ stocks, in telecom stocks and the media companies everywhere in the world. Now most people that I know have actually already sold their gold. " - in ET Now 24 June 2011
Marc Faber : "Greece is a bust, it is as simple as that. If it was a company, it would go into bankruptcy, into liquidation, into restructuring and the bond holders or the creditors would have to take huge haircuts, probably in the order of 70-80%. But here comes the government, of course the government and the IMF and the ECB, they know everything better than anybody else. So they bail it out. This is the problem I just explained. The financial system went bust. Now the governments are extending the credit and as a result, their credit worthiness is declining and eventually a lot of countries will go bust because they help the weak companies or the weak country survive. " - in ET Now
Marc Faber : Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies. We are talking about stock portfolios. The question is do you buy today or you wait? I do not know when the markets will bottom out. I do not know when the QE3 will be implemented, but I would say in Asia, you have a lot of shares that have a dividend yield of between 4 and 7%. You have zero interest rates on deposits. So I do not think there is a huge downside risk in equities. Now can they go down 20-30%? Yes, but if you cannot take the pain of downside volatility in the order of 20-30%, then do not even get up in the morning from your bed, stay in bed.
Marc Faber : " In my view, the debt level, especially in the US, if we include the unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and these entitlement programs, is beyond repair. And this will necessitate printing more money. Also, in my view, there is no real political will to address the issues, because who ever would cut entitlements, will not be re-elected. So we have a tyranny of the masses."
- in lewrockwell.com
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report,interviewed in Honk Kong by Bloomberg talks about his investment strategy and the outlook for global financial markets said that he Likes Gold, Silver and Will Keep Accumulating Gold . Marc Faber : not to own any Gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life : .. Yes I still like Gold and Silver but I think they'll go down for the next three months or so but I wouldn't short them and I keep on accumulating gold , I think Gold in the long run not not to own any gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life
Marc Faber : "...First of all it is true that gold has gone up from $252 in 1999 to now $1550 an ounce. However, at the same time over this 11-year period, the quantity of money in the world and the quantity of credit in the world has exploded. So that I could make a case that actually maybe gold is cheaper today than it was in 1999 adjusted for the increase in the quantity of money and credit.
Secondly, today we have many more people that have become affluent, just think of the well-to-do people in India, then Indian middle class, the middle class in China, the well-to-do people in China, it has exploded over the last 11 years. And all these people I guarantee you, they are all essentially flooded with US dollars and so for them to take a little bit of their money and park it into gold is a no-brainer in the long run. I go to many conferences every year.
They usually ask the audience even at resource conferences, how many of you have more than 5% of their portfolio assets in gold? I have been at a conference in Singapore two days ago, among 500 people involved in real estate, not one had more than 5% of his assets in gold. I guess most of them did not have any gold at all, and so if someone tells me it is a bubble, I can tell you in year 1999-2000, the whole world was gambling in NASDAQ stocks, in telecom stocks and the media companies everywhere in the world. Now most people that I know have actually already sold their gold. " - in ET Now
Marc Faber: Well I basically focus more on gold than silver, although I am on the board of a company, Sprott Inc., that is identified with a very bullish view of silver. I prefer gold. My view is, yes, I have been positive for gold for the past 10 or 12 years and I could make a case that gold today is cheaper than it was in 1999 when it was at $252. Cheaper in the sense that if I compare gold to international reserves or to the increase in the credit markets in the world, I don't think it's expensive. And yes, I think it will go higher or, expressed differently, that paper currencies will go lower against the value of gold. But this will be an irregular process, and along with this move into US Treasuries and away from risky assets, I wouldn't be surprised if the price of gold went down $200. It's not necessarily a prediction, it just wouldn't surprise me. - in The Daily Bell
Marc Faber: I think we have all the symptoms of a bubble in China , but if the bubble is about to burst and there is a meaningful slowdown in the economy , the Chinese they invented the paper they can also print money and they will be very good at that , so they can take a pain through a depreciation in the currency rather than a collapse in the asset prices domestically "
Associate Professor Steve Keen , Australia benefited greatly during China 's massive stimulus , China was a very successful case a very intelligent industrialization at the expense of the west , the Chinese growth was funded mainly with the American debt particularly the working class and the middle class in America . China exported to an American bubble which ended in 2007 2008 , and China responded by starting their own bubble
Marc Faber : First of all, I would not put all my money in any emerging economy or in any country. I would have a geographical diversification. I would also have a diversification in assets, some commodities, some equities, some bonds, some cash and some real estate. So I would not put all my money into India to start with. - In ET Now
Marc Faber: It depends on how you define a real crisis. Basically we had a boom into 2007, but the boom did not really help the average person in the United States. The boom was concentrated in asset prices and the financial sector and well-to-do people. The workers did not benefit much. Then we have the crisis in 2008, unemployment goes up and since then, employment has hardly gained, but we have the boom in emerging economies because of the money printing and the transmission mechanism.
So a crisis in the US, we are to some extent still in crisis for the workers, for the lower middle class, and we had a recovery in asset prices, notably equities, but not real estate, which essentially means the Bernanke would have liked to see rising real estate prices. So whether we will have a further crisis, I am not so sure, but the global financial system will eventually blow up because we have not solved the problems, we have postponed them. In 2008, the financial sector went bankrupt and the government stepped in with bailouts and as a result of that, government's debt everywhere have gone through the roof and made governments more vulnerable to themselves failing one day, especially in the United States, in my opinion. Jim Chanos always says China is Dubai times a thousand. In my view, the US is Greece like a thousand times. - in ET Now
Marc Faber : "...No further stimulus. We have to qualify that statement. I think they will end QE2 and not tighten monetary conditions, but there could be a relative tightening the way we had it after the end of QE1 until QE2 was announced last August. So for the next three months or so, asset markets will continue to drift lower. Traditionally the month of May is very weak.Also June and then from June on, we have some seasonal strength developing until the end of July, early August and then we have weak September-October months, seasonally speaking. The markets are oversold at the present time. We could re-bounce somewhat from herein to the end of July and then have another ground draft in October-November, but my forecast is very simple. If the S&P were to drop from here by, say, another 10-20%, for sure, for sure you will get QE3. There is no doubt about this." - in ET Now
Marc Faber : " whenever you have proliferation of fraud on a massive scale as we've sen now with Chinese companies it's a very very clear symptom of a bubble of a mania and of course you have more Chinese fraud companies in the US because the public does not know anything about China , secondly here in Hong Kong the regulators are also relatively relaxed but if you cheat Hong Kong Chinese you have to watch your kneecaps may be you do not have your kneecaps anymore , so I think that people are very careful in cheating Honk Kong people , plus the Hong Kong public is not totally stupid like in the US , people go and buy anything they buy anything , anything here in China is good , growing , China will be the biggest economy , it is already in many sectors the biggest economy but it does not lead necessarily to making money , in the 19th century in America you had canal boom railroad boom foreigners were always taken to the cleaners repeatedly , in China the people that had made money are the locals , the people that make money here in Asia mostly are the locals there are some foreigners that have made money but by in large it is a local story - in Bloomberg TV 23 June 2011
June 23 2011: Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report,interviewed in Honk Kong by Bloomberg talks about his investment strategy and the outlook for global financial markets said that he Likes Gold, Silver and Will Keep Accumulating Gold : ...Yes I still like Gold and Silver but I think they'll go down for the next three months or so but I wouldn't short them and I keep on accumulating gold , I think Gold in the long run not not to own any gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives insight on why the FOMC downgraded economic growth by half a percentage point and decided to hold rates steady. Ben Bernanke :"good afternoon, welcome. in my opening remarks today, i'll briefly review today's policy decision and I'll place the decision in the context of our economic projections and our policy strategy. I'll then be glad to take your questions. throughout today's briefing my goal will be to reflect the consensus of the committee while taking note of the diversity of views as appropriate. of course, my remarks and interpretations are my own responsibility. as indicated in the policy statement released earlier this afternoon, the committee decided today to keep the target rating and the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25%. the committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and the subdued outlook for inflation in the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. the committee plans purchases of $600 billion of longer-term treasury securities will be completed by the end of this month and the committee will continue to reinvest principal payments from a securities holdings going forward. in conjunction with today's meeting, the FOMC participants submitted projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate for the years 2011 to 2013 and over the longer run"
Matt Taibbi: Michele Bachmann is not stupid , she is crazy and she believes a lot of things that are completely nuts says Matt Taibbi , she doesn't really know a whole a lot of things she is very confused about a lot of things but she really knows how to do politics she is a relentless campaigner she is not like Sarah Palin she like the campaigning aspect of it and she is going to be a formidable opponent Matt Taibbi said
Marc Faber : Yes I think that the Japanese equities Inexpensive but I do not think they'll run away right now , I think they'll move sidewards to down somewhat because of the correction I am expecting in global markets that probably has already begun but from a longer term perspective if you have to chose between say US equities emerging markets equities Japanese equities European equities I think that people should overweight Japanese equities " - in CNBC
Rick Santelli says that Bernanke was put in charge of fixing the unfixable : "you know, many people down here have high respect for mr. Bernanke, they don't agree with him and don't necessarily believe that he will have the conviction in the economy to do anything other than continue on the same road. i don't know if that answers the question. listen, this is one man mostly an academic background in charge of fixing the unfixable. i guess that's a good place to leave it, in my opinion"
Marc Faber : ...One of the reasons that we have a low birth rate in Europe is it is very expensive to have babies , in Asia is not that expensive to have babies and the divorce laws are very unfavorable in western Europe that will have to change so that people again will be more inclined to get married because the risk will be lessened but in Eastern Europe and in Russia the birth rate have been very low because of economic conditions , if economic conditions will improve ..." Jim Rogers pointed out that in Spain which was poor and they got more prosperous but in the same time their birth rate became the lowest in Europe , at the present projections there will be no Spanish in hundred years
Mohamed El-Erian "...I was in Europe last week and there's nothing but bad choices. they're looking at a series of bad choices which makes it very difficult to take a decision. so as Michelle said, they've decided not to decide when it comes to the creditors. meanwhile Greece is seeing a tremendous amount of bickering and the issue is nothing so far has been done to solve the two problems Greece has. one, compete excessive debt and inability to grow. it will weigh on our markets here and we'll see the same set of headlines over and over again and we cannot continue to kick the can down the road because we're coming to the end of the road in Greece. "
"first you recognize it's a solvency issue, not a liquidity issue. second you recognize that waiting has contaminated it. so part of the problem now is that the ECB balance sheet has gotten contaminated. so you need to have an action plan for that. thirdly, you need to protect the economies that do not have the characteristics of Greece, but could get contaminated. Spain, Italy. you need to move on plan b quickly, otherwise you're going to get stuck and everything's going to be more difficult. a year ago the ECB balance sheet was not contaminated so we could have solved it easier. today it is contaminated, so it gets more complicated. and six months time, gets even more complicated. so waiting around, not to kick the can down the road, but just waiting around makes the solution even more difficult."
William Black - one of the very few left in America you can trust to tell the truth.the level of fraud in the banking system and Wall Street is mind blowing The financial industry brought the economy to its knees,.Unknown to the US public - mortgage backed securities were packaged as AAA+ mini-bonds sold to the Asian public through local banks. Mas and pas bought them for their retirements. When Lehaman Bros went down under, the mini-bonds also went up in smoke. The holders (earning a paltry 4%) sued the banks; in the end they paid up - 50cents to the initial $. Not only the banks were making off with the people in the US, they also scammed the people in the world. I hope they will catch up with them.
William Kurt Black (born 6 September 1951) is an American lawyer, academic, author, and a former bank regulator. Black's expertise is in white-collar crime, public finance, regulation, and other topics in law and economics. He developed the concept of "control fraud", in which a business or national executive uses the entity he or she controls as a "weapon" to commit fraud.
Marc Faber : "We need to find new oil fields and develop them and that is very costly. I would estimate the marginal cost of adding new oil at USD 80 per barrel," "Of course, we have had a huge run up, and I think energy shares and oil is due for correction, but in an optimistic scenario, you should be long oil, and also other industrial commodity," - in www.moneycontrol.com
Former Assistant Secretary of Housing under George H.W. Bush Catherine Austin Fitts president of Solari, Inc., the publisher of The Solari Report blows the whistle on how the Big investment banks have deliberately imploded the US economy and transferred staggering amounts of wealth offshore as a means of destroying the American middle class. Fitts documents how trillions of dollars went missing from government coffers in the 90's and how she was personally targeted for exposing the fraud.The elite create wars in order to generate business says Fitts
Jobless claims are 414,000 for last week Rick Santelli "box. litany of data to come out momentarily. jobless claims, definitely did a bit of a retreat. subtract 16 from 30,000, one sixth down to 414,000. however, ten straight week above 400,000. continuing claims revised up a bit close to 3.7 million. then they came back down on the current read around 3.67 million starts. this is better than expected for change in housing. looking for 550. seasonally adjusted annualized rate 560 k. up 19,000 from a slightly revised 541. now if we look at the permit side, looks like we're going to be up close to, what, close to 9%. quick math. 61 k from 563,000. so both the housing numbers are definitely better than expected. claims dropped but still above 400,000. and you know all those debt ceiling issues we were talking about a couple of days ago, here we sit at a ten year. breached it briefly. how do you get 30% on a two year note? grecian, slightly below as these rates are astronomical. the markets usually win when people try to affect its outcome. 30% yield. back to you ."
Dr. Steve Keen is one of 12 economist who predicted the Global Economic Crisis. He said this is due to the excessive levels of debt to GDP ratio.Prof Steve Keen is Associate Prof of Economics & Finance at The University of Western Sydney . Prof Steve Keen identifies himself as a post-Keynesian, He is highly critical of both modern neoclassical economics and (some of) Marxian economics as inconsistent, unscientific and empirically unsupported. Steve Keen looks at the rising national debts in Australia and the United States, paying particular attention to their historical relationship with recessions, growth and unemployment. He suggests that the levels of debt in both countries have reached a point which virtually guarantees a very difficult economic road ahead in the long term.
All we need is a brave government to abolish negative gearing and it will be a big downturn. The Government knows this but that they wont as it would mean political suicide for the government of the day.
Instead they will leave the market forces go into chaotic collapse on its own then come in "to ensure these unsustainable prices never ever effect our economy again" and abbolish negative gearing.
Problem is plenty of Baby Boomers are self funded for retirement through property, poor fellas.
Niall Ferguson , a visiting professor at the London School of Economics Professor of history at Harvard University and best selling author
Niall Ferguson agrees 50 percent with what Larry Summers said yesterday that the US is facing a lost decade but he does not agree with his Keynesian remedy of more stimulus , Niall Ferguson also says that he is 100% sure that Greece will default
the debt crisis amongst the PIIGs has moved from being a public finance problem on the periphery (of Europe ) to be a major institutional conflict between the biggest economies in the European and the European central bank union Niall Ferguson says
the German position has moved the driver here is the German voter he added they are fed up of writing blank checks for the rest of Europe , if the German voter gets what he wants a whole bunch of German banks could blow up cause they are the major one exposed to the Greek debt he explained
Marc Faber : "... I would say, let’s take a very bearish scenario, assuming there is a collapse in the Chinese economy, which is not necessarily my prediction, but some people say there is a horrendous bubble. I agree, if we define a bubble as artificially low interest rates, and excessive credit growth, then we have a colossal bubble in China. But it may go on for another 2-3 years. But let’s say it breaks one day. Then it will have a very negative impact on the demand for industrial commodities. And we may get, at some stage, in some sectors of the economy, the risk of deflation. In other words, the demand for industrial commodities could, for a year or two, decline, and so, obviously, the price of copper, and of nickel, and also, to some extent, oil– although this would depend very much on political developments – would go down.In that environment, there will be more money-printing. If the S&P drops 20%, all the people that are now criticizing Mr. Bernanke for QE-II will go back to their old pattern,as they have done between 1980 and 2007, to encourage the Fed to print money, because they all benefited from rising asset prices. But as soon as the S&P drops 20%, the American policy-makers will all again be for further monetary policy measures and further fiscal measures.At that time, obviously, you could end up with a global economy that is very weak, but where prices go up for certain commodities, such as gold and silver.They don’t go down because of an oversupply situation, but they move because they are a safe currency.They become the proper unit of account. In all hyper-inflation economies, eventually people give up their own currencies as a unit of account.If you had gone to Zimbabwe during their hyper-inflation, or if you had gone to Germany during their hyper-inflation, or Mexico during their hyper-inflation, nobody in those countries calculated prices anymore in their domestic currency, it was all then becoming a dollar standard, or gold standard. That is why I think that people should have some of their money in gold and silver " - in a recent interview with MacAlavany
David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates,and former Merrill Lynch North America Chief economist and Former Bank of Canada Chief economist says that he is 99.9% sure that there will be a recession next year that the FED will have to do a QE3 that there is no more room for another fiscal stimulus"I think that by 2012 I give it a 99 percent of occurring " " when you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recessions usually separate 5 years apart , but when you have a balance sheet recession we are talking about credit contraction asset deflation for example residential real estate , when you have these sort of balance sheet recessions the downturn tends to be separated every two , two and half years so I think that by 2012 that will be roughly the time we going to see the next downturn "
Dr. Marc Faber : "...We should have been in deflation after 1980 because the Kondratieff peaked out in 1980 or in the mid-seventies to the eighties and then we have a downward wave in commodity prices and declining interest rates. That is the time we should have had deflation. But now that commodity prices are turning up it‟s more likely that we are in a very high inflationary environment and the reason I have this debate with the deflation is not so much that they believe in deflation and that I believe in inflation - but their conclusion to buy U.S. government bonds in a deflationary environment is, of course, a disastrous recommendation because if you really have the credit collapse, the deflationists are arguing about, then obviously tax revenues will collapse and the fiscal deficit will go to the moon.I mean, Tim Geithner just signed the treasury report about the budget deficit about the financing of the U.S. for 2010. The deficit was not $1.4 trillion but $2 trillion signed by him. And so the government debt goes up and up and up and up and then the interest payments from the government go do go up and the quality of government debt goes down and so eventually you have a junk bond in the U.S.. I believe the U.S. government bonds are junk already today but as long as you have rating agencies that are dreaming and publishing reports that are completely useless, people still buy the government bonds in the U.S. " in a recent interview with Chris Martenson
Dr. Marc Faber : "...Yeah, but do you understand its very difficult to define inflation. The Federal Reserve essentially targets core inflation. Core inflation has nothing to do with your cost of living increases. And as you know the basket of goods and services that are used to measure inflation can be weighted in such a way that things that go up a lot like health care costs, insurance premiums, energy, in this regard entirely and other items where prices are deflating like a T-shirt are over-weighted. " in a recent interview with Chris Martenson
Housing, credit, public finances, and the labor areas of the economy are currently impaired and until the country gets over those structural impairments, economic growth will be tough for a while, says Mohamed El-Erian Pimco CEO/Co-CIO:" I'm really worried by the data. we've had a string of bad data. look overnight, Brazil, France, china. and Portugal, Greece, all of them came in lower than expected. all are tapping the brakes as in brazil. what we're having right now is a global growth slowdown. that's going to impact top line revenue growth. there isn't much cost to prune anymore. most of it has been cut. there's going to be some pressure on profits. the good news is the balance sheets for most multinationals are pristine and profits are high. we're good not going to sustain this sort of profit growth in this global economy."
“My advice would be to diversify heavily and have money in other jurisdictions than the United States, in other assets than U.S. assets,” “In say Asia, Asian equities, Asian real estate. And I would have some money in custody outside the USA, in Australia or in Singapore or in Hong Kong or in Switzerland and not have all my assets here in the United States.” Marc Faberin Insider Monkey
Professor Steve Keen debunks the myth that the population growth supports property prices : the population causes house prices to rise is pretty much saying that rising population is growing more rapidly than we are building dwellings , that mans that the number of people demanding house rises and therefore the house price rises and that got a superficial appeal to it , , when you look at the data you find that the number of people per house in Australia has been dropping from very high levels 3.5 people per house down to 2 people per house ...the Americans were doing the same thing they were building big mansions palaces for the poor and they built these palaces and believed these palaces will rise in price that was the major motivation to doing it and they borrowed money to do it and the borrowed money they took out is what drives the house prices to go up not the population demand , we are repeating the same process ...
"If it were a bubble a lot of people would have gold. The whole world would be trading gold 24 hours a day," "But I don't think it's really a bubble. I think gold is maybe cheaper today than it was in 1999, when it was $252." - in CNBC
Marc Faber : I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it.For the investor, the question is: How do I navigate through this complete disaster that is going to unfold? And I think if you look at different asset classes– real estate, equities,bonds, cash, precious metals – I suppose that you have to be diversified. I think real estate in the U.S. may go down another 10% or so, or even 15%, but I am always telling people, if you can buy the piece of land or the house you like, what do you actually care if it does down another 10%? If everything I bought in my life had only gone down 10-15%, I would be very rich, because a lot of things became worthless, especially loans to friends, and bonds, and so forth.Look at the history, for example, of Germany, for the last 100 years. They had World War I. They had the hyper-inflation in World War II. The bond-holders got wiped out three times. If you owned Siemens, and you still own Siemens today, it was not a fantastic investment, but at least you still have something. You were not wiped out. I think that in equities you will be better off because you have an ownership in a company,than by being the lenders to companies, and the lenders, especially, to governments "
" In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive. Is the price of wheat high, or is it low? Inflation-adjusted,it is extremely low. In nominal terms, it is relatively high. I believe that, in March 2009when the S&P was at 666, the market was actually much cheaper than is generally perceived, because of the money-printing, and I do not anticipate that we will see 666 on the S&P again, in nominal terms.In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps,2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009. Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in 1980. In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could beat the same level.That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold. Can gold have a correction? Yes,there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction,but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold. In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia.Just consider, when I started to work in the 1970s, it was said there were two billionaires in the world. One was Rockefeller, and the other one was Mr. Ludwig. Then in 1980there were, I think, six or eight billionaires. Now you have thousands of billionaires.The paper money has become of lower value, and in that environment, it is conceivable that actually stocks do not go down a lot, in nominal terms, but they go down inflation-adjusted, and not inflation-adjusted by what the government is publishing, but in inflation-adjusted terms, as John Williams points out. He says inflation is running at 8%per annum. I have it slightly lower, depending also on the household, whether you have children, or no children, and where you live, but I would say between 5-10% in America is probably a realistic figure, and between 8-12% in countries like India, China, Viet Nam."
Mark Mobius , of Templeton Emerging Markets Group shares his strategy for overseas investment , Mark Mobius is one of the most renowned global investors on the plant. Mark Mobus oversees $50 billion in assets and says emerging markets has been providing a wealth of opportunities, and he's been saying that for a long time.
Mark Mobius : "the reason why i say that is the problems that we faced during subprime have not really been solved. banks that are too big to fail, they have gotten bigger. derivatives that are really not regulated yet, and the fact that the bank balance sheets around the world, in many of the larger banks, are not really that healthy, so you have a situation which if not corrected will result in another crisis. now, i must also state it's no big disaster. in fact, it could be an opportunity, particularly in emerging markets, because it will give us an opportunity to buy cheap stocks again, so i don't consider it a very bad thing to happen. of course, we don't distinguish to happen, but i think it is -- it is inevitable. "
Marc Faber : The CIA is completely useless they had no idea that the unrest ( in North Africa and the middle east ) would start they had no ground information that something was going on so the US and this president had no way to react properly
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
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