Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Marc Faber : I could not criticize the governments in Asia as I do it in America
Marc Faber : " we have in the east not true democracies but for some funny reason we have a lot of economic freedom it is just that you have to be careful not to step on the government toes in terms of criticizing them too much , I mean the way I criticize Mr Bernanke and the way I criticize Mr Obama for sure I could not do it in China , for sure , and it would be viewed very negatively , see I live in Thailand and I am not here frequently , but if I went really off the government here I think I would have to be somewhat careful , this is still a great quality of the US , no matter what you say against the American leaders whether it is Mr Bush or Mr Obama , criticism is still accepted " - in Financial Sense News Hour 15 July 2011
Marc Faber : The US government bonds are already today junk bonds
Marc Faber - QE3, Inflation, Gold on Financial Sense July 15, 2011
Marc Faber : ...I think the deflationists they also have families they go shopping their families go shopping they pay educational cost they pay healthcare cost insurance cost and they see the fees on local government services increasing then I find it hard to believe that they will endorse the contest of deflation but obviously they may think that the economy may collapse and that as a result of that we may have deflation and that therefore you should buy long term US government bonds and my view is particularly in the deflationist scenario where you would have like Prechter said the Dow Jones below a thousand in that scenario you would not want to be in US government bonds and Cash for the simple reason that in that scenario the fiscal deficit in other words spending would exceed tax revenues even more than if you are actually optimistic about the economy , just consider if the Dow Jones went below a thousand what kind of an economic environment would we be in , we would be in a total credit collapse we would be in a total economic collapse and we would have a complete corporate profit collapse and in a corporate profit collapse and in an economic depression what would you thing happens to tax revenues , they would collapse as well and so the revenues of the treasury would decline very meaningfully and the fiscal deficit which is now running say optimistically said at one and a half trillion if you counted unfunded liabilities that are growing every year proof that the fiscal deficit is more likely two to two and half trillion dollars , but let's say it is one and a half trillion , if that happens the Dow Jones below a thousand corporate profit collapsing and revenues collapsing the fiscal deficit for sure will be two to three trillion dollars and in that environment the quality of credit of the US as was suggested by Moody's yesterday would decline and US government bonds which I think are already today junk bonds would go and yield much more than less than three percent that they are yielding at present time , so particularly in a deflationist scenario you do not want to be in a government bonds "....
Marc Faber : ...I think the deflationists they also have families they go shopping their families go shopping they pay educational cost they pay healthcare cost insurance cost and they see the fees on local government services increasing then I find it hard to believe that they will endorse the contest of deflation but obviously they may think that the economy may collapse and that as a result of that we may have deflation and that therefore you should buy long term US government bonds and my view is particularly in the deflationist scenario where you would have like Prechter said the Dow Jones below a thousand in that scenario you would not want to be in US government bonds and Cash for the simple reason that in that scenario the fiscal deficit in other words spending would exceed tax revenues even more than if you are actually optimistic about the economy , just consider if the Dow Jones went below a thousand what kind of an economic environment would we be in , we would be in a total credit collapse we would be in a total economic collapse and we would have a complete corporate profit collapse and in a corporate profit collapse and in an economic depression what would you thing happens to tax revenues , they would collapse as well and so the revenues of the treasury would decline very meaningfully and the fiscal deficit which is now running say optimistically said at one and a half trillion if you counted unfunded liabilities that are growing every year proof that the fiscal deficit is more likely two to two and half trillion dollars , but let's say it is one and a half trillion , if that happens the Dow Jones below a thousand corporate profit collapsing and revenues collapsing the fiscal deficit for sure will be two to three trillion dollars and in that environment the quality of credit of the US as was suggested by Moody's yesterday would decline and US government bonds which I think are already today junk bonds would go and yield much more than less than three percent that they are yielding at present time , so particularly in a deflationist scenario you do not want to be in a government bonds "....
Monday, July 18, 2011
David Rosenberg , we are just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession
David Rosenberg , Gluskin Sheff & Associates saya that It has been a sub-par economic recovery,
"the stock market has actually done much better than i thought it would do because ultimately it will get priced off of corporate earnings and corporate earnings have done phenomenally well. the local economy has done far worse because the other component of the economy called labor income has done poorly. i don't think the stock market can stay divorced from the economy indefinitely." David Rosenberg says "...the small caps are part of the cycle. but the point on the overall recovery depends what your assumption is. my assumption is this was a balance sheet recession that we emerged from. so this was not a classic post-world war ii manufacturing inventory cycle that looks almost like a sign wave. if you look at centuries of data you'll find balance sheets of recession, asset deflation, rising savings rates. it's ultimately very deflationary. what you find is the recovery period tends to be fraught with fragility. it's not normal to have two soft patches this close together barely two years after the recession end. it happens in the context of a balance sheet recession. not in the manufacturing inventory cycle. everything is telling you just how soft the underbelly of the economy is. we're just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession." he added
"the stock market has actually done much better than i thought it would do because ultimately it will get priced off of corporate earnings and corporate earnings have done phenomenally well. the local economy has done far worse because the other component of the economy called labor income has done poorly. i don't think the stock market can stay divorced from the economy indefinitely." David Rosenberg says "...the small caps are part of the cycle. but the point on the overall recovery depends what your assumption is. my assumption is this was a balance sheet recession that we emerged from. so this was not a classic post-world war ii manufacturing inventory cycle that looks almost like a sign wave. if you look at centuries of data you'll find balance sheets of recession, asset deflation, rising savings rates. it's ultimately very deflationary. what you find is the recovery period tends to be fraught with fragility. it's not normal to have two soft patches this close together barely two years after the recession end. it happens in the context of a balance sheet recession. not in the manufacturing inventory cycle. everything is telling you just how soft the underbelly of the economy is. we're just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession." he added
Timothy Geithner, The US will not default
Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary, Discussing the plans for whether the debt ceiling is not raised " I have spent all day both days in the white house, and there's a lot happening as we try to work with leaders on both sides to bring people together to do something useful for the economy, do something about long term deficits. very important to have the leadership of the republican party definitively take default off the table." says Timothy Geithner " senator McConnell, Mr. Boehner, cantor have each said default is not an option and you saw senator McConnell propose last week a mechanism for making clear that the u.s. will not default. again, we need to make sure we'll do something about a long term deficit. we're still working very hard and the president said last week wants us to work towards the biggest, the largest budget agreement we can. " he added
Marc Faber : The US Will Default By Inflation
Marc Faber : "I don't think the US will default in terms of not paying the interest on its debt. They will though default via a falling dollar as Bernake begins printing more money," - in CNBC
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Economist John Williams on the Road to Hyperinflation 2014
John Williams - Financial Sense NewsHour 14 July 2011
John Williams of Shadow stats talks about the road to hyperinflation 2014 and the fake government numbers .Economist of Shadow Government Statistics and shadowstats.com founder John Williams claims government employment and inflation numbers are inaccurate, and economy is shakier than indicated.There is no way we could possibly pay our debt either we raise the taxes or we do not either we cut social security or we do not , we are headed towards a Wiemar Republic type of hyperinflation and a banana republic kind of government ....the whole system is collapsing
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Marc Faber - Financial Sense Newshour 15 July 2011
Marc Faber : ...I think the deflationists they also have families they go shopping their families go shopping they pay educational cost they pay healthcare cost insurance cost and they see the fees on local government services increasing then I find it hard to believe that they will endorse the contest of deflation but obviously they may think that the economy may collapse and that as a result of that we may have deflation and that therefore you should buy long term US government bonds and my view is particularly in the deflationist scenario where you would have like Prechter said the Dow Jones below a thousand in that scenario you would not want to be in US government bonds and Cash for the simple reason that in that scenario the fiscal deficit in other words spending would exceed tax revenues even more than if you are actually optimistic about the economy , just consider if the Dow Jones went below a thousand what kind of an economic environment would we be in , we would be in a total credit collapse we would be in a total economic collapse and we would have a complete corporate profit collapse and in a corporate profit collapse and in an economic depression what would you thing happens to tax revenues , they would collapse as well and so the revenues of the treasury would decline very meaningfully and the fiscal deficit which is now running say optimistically said at one and a half trillion if you counted unfunded liabilities that are growing every year proof that the fiscal deficit is more likely two to two and half trillion dollars , but let's say it is one and a half trillion , if that happens the Dow Jones below a thousand corporate profit collapsing and revenues collapsing the fiscal deficit for sure will be two to three trillion dollars and in that environment the quality of credit of the US as was suggested by Moody's yesterday would decline and US government bonds which I think are already today junk bonds would go and yield much more than less than three percent that they are yielding at present time , so particularly in a deflationist scenario you do not want to be in a government bonds "....
Friday, July 15, 2011
Marc Faber : The risk for investors is not to own any Gold
Marc Faber : " ...well basically , I think the risk for investors is not to own any Gold , but obviously it will also fluctuate like the dollar against the Euro moves it moves against the Yen it moves against the Swiss franc and so forth , and we could once have a period where the dollar strengthens somewhat under some conditions but quite frankly I do not see a huge downside risk for Gold let's say may be ten percent or so and I rather see that over the next five to ten years we will have substantially and I have to repeat substantially higher Gold prices or expressed differently substantially lower purchasing power of paper money , and I agree with what was said earlier that say under a rigid monetary system where you have let's say Gold as an anchoring in other words you have some kind of gold standard cash is a riskless asset , but in today's environment of money printing cash at zero interest rate is not a riskless asset it is actually very risky except for brief period of time , period during which asset markets correct on the down side " in CNBC Interview 14 July 2011
Marc Faber : QE3 will be a certainty if the Dow Jones or the S&P drop ten twenty percent
Marc Faber : " I think if the Dow Jones drops say ten , twenty percent from here or the S&P drops by similar amount ten twenty percent QE3 will be a certainty but the question is then whether the market can make a new high , I think we seen the high of the market when the S&P hit 1370 almost two months ago and that is high for the yield will stand that is not make new high " ..."
in CNBC Interview 14 July 2011
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Marc Faber CNBC Interview 14 July 2011
Marc Faber : "well basically I do not think they will default in terms of not paying the interest on the government debt but I think that they will default in terms of paying back the debt and the interest with depreciated or worthless dollars as a result of the FED or specifically Mister Bernanke money printing "
"Yes I think they will someway or somehow come to an agreement or they'll fiddle around with the debt ceiling or invoke the constitution whereby the president in special situations can actually increase the debt of the United States , something will happen but I do not think they will default on the debt , but I just like to point out where I disagree with the bonds bulls , the bonds bulls basically built their case around deflation , in a deflationary environment you would have essentially the Dow Jones collapsing corporate profit collapsing the economy performing very badly and in that environment the tax revenues will collapse and so the fiscal deficit instead of staying at this level or even coming down in an optimistic scenario will actually increase and so the quality of the US debt will diminish and actually for me it is mind boggling that somebody will buy a ten year US treasury at a yield of less than 3 percent denominated in US Dollars "
Marc Faber, author and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report joined CNBC to discuss a potential US default. Bob Parker, Senior Advisor at Credit Suisse and Sarah Hewin at Standard Chartered Bank joined the discussion.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Marc Faber: Time to Buy US Real Estate, but Choose Carefully
Marc Faber : It's Time to Buy US Real Estate, but Choose Carefully ,Marc Faber explains why now may be a good time to pick up some cash-flowing rental property in the United States, but you must buy carefully. He also explains why he buys his own rental properties for all cash, using no leverage. Marc Faber believes that precious metals investors will endure more volatile swings in the short term, but he's still holding his gold and silver as central banks continue to debase currencies.
Bernanke Testimony on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke makes an opening statement on the current state of the economy and his forecast on inflation.
Ben Bernanke :"...i'll begin with the discussion of current economic conditions and outlook and then turn to monetary policy. the u.s. economy has continued to recover and the pace of expansion so far this year has been modest. after increasing in the second half of 2010, real GDP rose at 2% rate in the first quarter of this year and incoming data suggesting that the pace of recovery remains soft in the spring. at the same time, the unemployment rate at the turn of the year has moved back above 9%. in part, the recent weaker than expected economic performance appears to have been the result of several factors that are likely to be temporary. notably, the run-up in prices of energy, especially gasoline and food has reduced purchasing power. the supply chain caused vehicle motor producers to curtail assemblies and limit the availability of some models. looking forward, however, the apparent stabilization in the prices of oil and other commodities should ease the prices on household budgets and vehicle manufacturers report that they are making significant progress in overcoming the part shortages and expect to increase production substantially this summer. in light of these developments, the most recent projections by recent members of the federal reserve board and banks prepared in conjunction with the FOMC meeting in June reflected their assessment of the pace of economic recovery will pick up in coming quarters..."
Ben Bernanke :"...i'll begin with the discussion of current economic conditions and outlook and then turn to monetary policy. the u.s. economy has continued to recover and the pace of expansion so far this year has been modest. after increasing in the second half of 2010, real GDP rose at 2% rate in the first quarter of this year and incoming data suggesting that the pace of recovery remains soft in the spring. at the same time, the unemployment rate at the turn of the year has moved back above 9%. in part, the recent weaker than expected economic performance appears to have been the result of several factors that are likely to be temporary. notably, the run-up in prices of energy, especially gasoline and food has reduced purchasing power. the supply chain caused vehicle motor producers to curtail assemblies and limit the availability of some models. looking forward, however, the apparent stabilization in the prices of oil and other commodities should ease the prices on household budgets and vehicle manufacturers report that they are making significant progress in overcoming the part shortages and expect to increase production substantially this summer. in light of these developments, the most recent projections by recent members of the federal reserve board and banks prepared in conjunction with the FOMC meeting in June reflected their assessment of the pace of economic recovery will pick up in coming quarters..."
Marc Faber : my stock portfolios are concentrated in Asia
Marc Faber : ..I suggest that people accumulate Gold , they should not market time the Gold market because we are going to have volatility and so on and so forth , but if I look at the faces of Tim Geithner of Ben Bernanke of Mister Obama and Larry Summers that I will never sell any gold that's for sure , as long as these people are essentially structuring economic policies fiscal and monetary policy and foreign policy no thank you I will keep my Gold ....I will not buy paper money , but I also have stock portfolios but my stock portfolios are concentrated here in Asia I think this year they'll go down in value but I do not feel comfortable holding too much cash because ultimately cash will be worthless - in The Financial Times
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Marc Faber on the Debt Ceiling increase in America
Economist Marc Faber publisher of the gloom Boom and Doom report interviewed by Financialsurvivalpod on the debt ceiling in America and what should happen to fix the debt situation : "...well I think the problem is this you have two parties , the democrats they want to spend and the republicans do not want to increase taxation , as an economist I would say that the republicans are probably closer to the right way namely to spend less and to actually lower taxation for everybody , but my argument has always been the best for the US would be to have a flat tax on everybody say 12 or 15 percent and no exceptions no interest rates deductions and so forth and so on and everybody who works has to pay tax and the people that do not work and are on social security or they are on unemployment benefits they should have lower representation in government in other word their words should be diminished " ..."the Democrats will say well we'll cut spending and the spending cuts will come in five years time and the Republicans will say yeah we increase taxation and the tax increase will come in three years time , you perform the problem again ...."
Monday, July 11, 2011
China heading for an economic slowdown
Marc Faber : some countries export more to China than to the US or to other parts of the world such as Australia Brazil and Canada " "
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Steve Keen : Bankers have to be kept inside boxes , not let out
Max Keiser interviews Steve Keen, economist and author of the book Debunking Economics. -On the Edge - 07-08-2011
Steve Keen : the bankers make money by creating debt , and if they can persuade us to take more debt than we actually should take on there will be crisis , and the easiest way to persuade us to do that is to start an asset class bubble , when the bubble starts they fund the bubble , they make lots of money because their debt levels rise and they make money on the margin between deposit rates and loan rates times how much debt outstanding , so the more debt there is the better they are , and we were silly enough letting them getting away with it yet again when the Great Depression should have taught us once and for all 'Bankers have to be kept inside boxes , not let out'
Steve Keen : the bankers make money by creating debt , and if they can persuade us to take more debt than we actually should take on there will be crisis , and the easiest way to persuade us to do that is to start an asset class bubble , when the bubble starts they fund the bubble , they make lots of money because their debt levels rise and they make money on the margin between deposit rates and loan rates times how much debt outstanding , so the more debt there is the better they are , and we were silly enough letting them getting away with it yet again when the Great Depression should have taught us once and for all 'Bankers have to be kept inside boxes , not let out'
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Bill Still : Ron Paul is wrong , ending the FED is a diversion
Bill Still : ....for the first time in history we have reached a state of debt saturation , the quantity of debt flooding around in all national money system is so great now that the interest is absolutely killing the economy , and unless Ron Paul addresses that he is not doing us any favors , ending the FED will do absolutely nothing because it is not the FED , The FED is just like the curtain in the wizard of OZ it is hiding the wizard and in this analogy the wizards are the big banks behind the curtain it is not the FED , the FED is just a big fake-out designed to make us think that we the people through our government , the FED is controlling the big banks when in fact it is not the case at all , I grow up in the DC area and in the DC phone book the FED is not listed in the blue government pages it is listed in the white private company pages private corporate pages under the very same page as the Federal Express , it got nothing to do with the government but everybody thinks it has something to do with the government and that is specifically designed to make people think that the FED is ultimately the problem when it is not , it is the big banks and their ability to create money out of nothing that is our problem that's hat we have to fix ...says Bill Still, the producer of the films The Money Masters and The Secret of Oz and the author of the book No More National Debt....ending the FED is a diversion
Friday, July 8, 2011
David Rosenberg Sees Semi-Permanent Hurdles to U.S. Growth
David Rosenberg chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, Sees `Semi-Permanent' Hurdles to U.S. Growth . He talks to Bloomberg TV about the June U.S. employment report and the outlook for the economy.there is no way that the housing market has bottomed says David Rosemberg , while job growth slows and unemployment rises
Marc Faber : Farmland is still relatively inexpensive
Marc Faber : ...When I came in 1973 to Hong Kong I thought that property prices are very high here compared to say Switzerland and they were very high , and every year basically with few exceptions property prices have continued to go up , I think farmland relatively speaking is not terribly expensive , can there be a set back , yes may be you buy today a farm and you lose 20 percent of your money , but to lose 20 percent of your money is better than to lose everything , so I think that people today investors need to diversify they need to own some real estate they need to own some farmland they need to own some equities some cash and some precious metals - in CNBC
Marc Faber : Central Banks around the world are debasing the value of money
Marc Faber : ...well the thing is this I used to think that he (Ben Bernanke) is not particularly smart , but now I think that he is not particularly honest , and I actually do not pay any attention anymore to what he says I just look at say inflation figures but real inflation figures not the ones that are published by the government and I look at market action , I mean there must be a reason why over the last ten years the price of Gold and Silver are up more than five times it's money printing and the loss of purchasing power of paper money and this is what central banks have been doing not just in the US but also elsewhere- in CNBC
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Marc Faber likes Geographical diversification
Marc Faber : I would not put all my money in any emerging economy or in any country. I would have a geographical diversification. I would also have a diversification in assets, some commodities, some equities, some bonds, some cash and some real estate. So I would not put all my money into India to start with. - in ET Now
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Marc Faber outlook for the Indian Market
Marc Faber : Markets have peaked out and I think we are in a correction period. We had a huge move in India from the lows in 2009 to the recent highs, and we are coming down now. We may drop another 10-20%, who knows? Longer term I am reasonably positive for the Indian economy or very positive for the Indian economy. But what disturbs me nowadays are less economic factors than geopolitical factors because the friendship between India and America has been renewed and expanded and that is a threat to China and so China is getting closer. They have always been close to Pakistan and that creates a new set of tensions. We could have a lot of volatility in asset markets as a result of geopolitical trends. " - in ET Now 24 June 2011
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Asset markets will continue to drift lower for the next 3 months or so
Marc Faber : No further stimulus. We have to qualify that statement. I think they will end QE2 and not tighten monetary conditions, but there could be a relative tightening the way we had it after the end of QE1 until QE2 was announced last August. So for the next three months or so, asset markets will continue to drift lower. Traditionally the month of May is very weak.Also June and then from June on, we have some seasonal strength developing until the end of July, early August and then we have weak September-October months, seasonally speaking. The markets are oversold at the present time. We could re-bounce somewhat from herein to the end of July and then have another ground draft in October-November, but my forecast is very simple. If the S&P were to drop from here by, say, another 10-20%, for sure, for sure you will get QE3. There is no doubt about this.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Marc Faber : Gold Mining Shares are quite inexpensive
Marc Faber : ..In the seventies by in large stocks did badly but there were big fluctuations every year so there was a lot of volatility and also if you bought at the lows of 74 , you actually made money , number two there were two sectors of the market that were very strong , energy and mining these two were very very strong , I think at present time Gold mining shares the exploration companies are quite inexpensive but I would even say that big oil companies are not terribly expenssive or natural gas companies so that is a sector I would eventually look at , I would say in the Gold mining sector you can buy the more established companies like Newmont Mining Corp. or Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold , the more exciting part are the exploration companies but they have also higher risk but for instance NovaGold was at 20 dollars two years ago it went down to about a dollar now it is about 4 , I mean the value of the company could easily be 15 , 20 dollars so there are a lot of companies that are still attractive , in the national gas base I would say a speculative investment Chesapeake Energy very good as gas prices recovers and one day it will recover , it is not easy to play it the recovery and then you have the Oil Companies the Exxon of this world and so forth they are not terribly expensive ..." - in tech ticker
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Marc Faber : the Euro and the US Dollar are both Sick currencies
Marc Faber : when Investors are going to realize that fiscal deficits are not going to come down that they'll stay very high , when they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois and when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run I think at that point the dollar will be weak but do not forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro both currencies are sick and so both could go down and ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will also appreciates against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong " -in Bloomberg
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Marc Faber outlook for Gold
Marc Faber : "...First of all it is true that gold has gone up from $252 in 1999 to now $1550 an ounce. However, at the same time over this 11-year period, the quantity of money in the world and the quantity of credit in the world has exploded. So that I could make a case that actually maybe gold is cheaper today than it was in 1999 adjusted for the increase in the quantity of money and credit.Secondly, today we have many more people that have become affluent, just think of the well-to-do people in India, then Indian middle class, the middle class in China, the well-to-do people in China, it has exploded over the last 11 years. And all these people I guarantee you, they are all essentially flooded with US dollars and so for them to take a little bit of their money and park it into gold is a no-brainer in the long run. I go to many conferences every year.They usually ask the audience even at resource conferences, how many of you have more than 5% of their portfolio assets in gold? I have been at a conference in Singapore two days ago, among 500 people involved in real estate, not one had more than 5% of his assets in gold. I guess most of them did not have any gold at all, and so if someone tells me it is a bubble, I can tell you in year 1999-2000, the whole world was gambling in NASDAQ stocks, in telecom stocks and the media companies everywhere in the world. Now most people that I know have actually already sold their gold. " - in ET Now 24 June 2011
Friday, July 1, 2011
Greece is bust, it is as simple as that
Marc Faber : "Greece is a bust, it is as simple as that. If it was a company, it would go into bankruptcy, into liquidation, into restructuring and the bond holders or the creditors would have to take huge haircuts, probably in the order of 70-80%. But here comes the government, of course the government and the IMF and the ECB, they know everything better than anybody else. So they bail it out. This is the problem I just explained. The financial system went bust. Now the governments are extending the credit and as a result, their credit worthiness is declining and eventually a lot of countries will go bust because they help the weak companies or the weak country survive. " - in ET Now
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies
Marc Faber : Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies. We are talking about stock portfolios. The question is do you buy today or you wait? I do not know when the markets will bottom out. I do not know when the QE3 will be implemented, but I would say in Asia, you have a lot of shares that have a dividend yield of between 4 and 7%. You have zero interest rates on deposits. So I do not think there is a huge downside risk in equities. Now can they go down 20-30%? Yes, but if you cannot take the pain of downside volatility in the order of 20-30%, then do not even get up in the morning from your bed, stay in bed.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Marc Faber : the debt level in the US is beyond repair
Marc Faber : " In my view, the debt level, especially in the US, if we include the unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and these entitlement programs, is beyond repair. And this will necessitate printing more money. Also, in my view, there is no real political will to address the issues, because who ever would cut entitlements, will not be re-elected. So we have a tyranny of the masses."
- in lewrockwell.com
- in lewrockwell.com
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Marc Faber : Accumulate Gold, invest in Silver
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report,interviewed in Honk Kong by Bloomberg talks about his investment strategy and the outlook for global financial markets said that he Likes Gold, Silver and Will Keep Accumulating Gold . Marc Faber : not to own any Gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life : .. Yes I still like Gold and Silver but I think they'll go down for the next three months or so but I wouldn't short them and I keep on accumulating gold , I think Gold in the long run not not to own any gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life
Marc Faber Gold outlook
Marc Faber : "...First of all it is true that gold has gone up from $252 in 1999 to now $1550 an ounce. However, at the same time over this 11-year period, the quantity of money in the world and the quantity of credit in the world has exploded. So that I could make a case that actually maybe gold is cheaper today than it was in 1999 adjusted for the increase in the quantity of money and credit.
Secondly, today we have many more people that have become affluent, just think of the well-to-do people in India, then Indian middle class, the middle class in China, the well-to-do people in China, it has exploded over the last 11 years. And all these people I guarantee you, they are all essentially flooded with US dollars and so for them to take a little bit of their money and park it into gold is a no-brainer in the long run. I go to many conferences every year.
They usually ask the audience even at resource conferences, how many of you have more than 5% of their portfolio assets in gold? I have been at a conference in Singapore two days ago, among 500 people involved in real estate, not one had more than 5% of his assets in gold. I guess most of them did not have any gold at all, and so if someone tells me it is a bubble, I can tell you in year 1999-2000, the whole world was gambling in NASDAQ stocks, in telecom stocks and the media companies everywhere in the world. Now most people that I know have actually already sold their gold. " - in ET Now
Secondly, today we have many more people that have become affluent, just think of the well-to-do people in India, then Indian middle class, the middle class in China, the well-to-do people in China, it has exploded over the last 11 years. And all these people I guarantee you, they are all essentially flooded with US dollars and so for them to take a little bit of their money and park it into gold is a no-brainer in the long run. I go to many conferences every year.
They usually ask the audience even at resource conferences, how many of you have more than 5% of their portfolio assets in gold? I have been at a conference in Singapore two days ago, among 500 people involved in real estate, not one had more than 5% of his assets in gold. I guess most of them did not have any gold at all, and so if someone tells me it is a bubble, I can tell you in year 1999-2000, the whole world was gambling in NASDAQ stocks, in telecom stocks and the media companies everywhere in the world. Now most people that I know have actually already sold their gold. " - in ET Now
Marc Faber : Gold price could go down $2000
Marc Faber : Well I basically focus more on gold than silver, although I am on the board of a company, Sprott Inc., that is identified with a very bullish view of silver. I prefer gold. My view is, yes, I have been positive for gold for the past 10 or 12 years and I could make a case that gold today is cheaper than it was in 1999 when it was at $252. Cheaper in the sense that if I compare gold to international reserves or to the increase in the credit markets in the world, I don't think it's expensive. And yes, I think it will go higher or, expressed differently, that paper currencies will go lower against the value of gold. But this will be an irregular process, and along with this move into US Treasuries and away from risky assets, I wouldn't be surprised if the price of gold went down $200. It's not necessarily a prediction, it just wouldn't surprise me. - in The Daily Bell
Monday, June 27, 2011
Marc Faber : we have all the symptoms of a bubble in China
Marc Faber : I think we have all the symptoms of a bubble in China , but if the bubble is about to burst and there is a meaningful slowdown in the economy , the Chinese they invented the paper they can also print money and they will be very good at that , so they can take a pain through a depreciation in the currency rather than a collapse in the asset prices domestically "
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Steve Keen on How Australia is vulnerable to China
Associate Professor Steve Keen , Australia benefited greatly during China 's massive stimulus , China was a very successful case a very intelligent industrialization at the expense of the west , the Chinese growth was funded mainly with the American debt particularly the working class and the middle class in America . China exported to an American bubble which ended in 2007 2008 , and China responded by starting their own bubble
Mar Faber is for geographical diversification and diversification in assets
Marc Faber : First of all, I would not put all my money in any emerging economy or in any country. I would have a geographical diversification. I would also have a diversification in assets, some commodities, some equities, some bonds, some cash and some real estate. So I would not put all my money into India to start with. - In ET Now
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Marc Faber : US is thousand times worse than Greece
Marc Faber : It depends on how you define a real crisis. Basically we had a boom into 2007, but the boom did not really help the average person in the United States. The boom was concentrated in asset prices and the financial sector and well-to-do people. The workers did not benefit much. Then we have the crisis in 2008, unemployment goes up and since then, employment has hardly gained, but we have the boom in emerging economies because of the money printing and the transmission mechanism.
So a crisis in the US, we are to some extent still in crisis for the workers, for the lower middle class, and we had a recovery in asset prices, notably equities, but not real estate, which essentially means the Bernanke would have liked to see rising real estate prices. So whether we will have a further crisis, I am not so sure, but the global financial system will eventually blow up because we have not solved the problems, we have postponed them. In 2008, the financial sector went bankrupt and the government stepped in with bailouts and as a result of that, government's debt everywhere have gone through the roof and made governments more vulnerable to themselves failing one day, especially in the United States, in my opinion. Jim Chanos always says China is Dubai times a thousand. In my view, the US is Greece like a thousand times. - in ET Now
So a crisis in the US, we are to some extent still in crisis for the workers, for the lower middle class, and we had a recovery in asset prices, notably equities, but not real estate, which essentially means the Bernanke would have liked to see rising real estate prices. So whether we will have a further crisis, I am not so sure, but the global financial system will eventually blow up because we have not solved the problems, we have postponed them. In 2008, the financial sector went bankrupt and the government stepped in with bailouts and as a result of that, government's debt everywhere have gone through the roof and made governments more vulnerable to themselves failing one day, especially in the United States, in my opinion. Jim Chanos always says China is Dubai times a thousand. In my view, the US is Greece like a thousand times. - in ET Now
If the S&P drops by another 10-20% for sure you will get QE3
Marc Faber : "...No further stimulus. We have to qualify that statement. I think they will end QE2 and not tighten monetary conditions, but there could be a relative tightening the way we had it after the end of QE1 until QE2 was announced last August. So for the next three months or so, asset markets will continue to drift lower. Traditionally the month of May is very weak.Also June and then from June on, we have some seasonal strength developing until the end of July, early August and then we have weak September-October months, seasonally speaking. The markets are oversold at the present time. We could re-bounce somewhat from herein to the end of July and then have another ground draft in October-November, but my forecast is very simple. If the S&P were to drop from here by, say, another 10-20%, for sure, for sure you will get QE3. There is no doubt about this." - in ET Now
Friday, June 24, 2011
Marc Faber : people that made money in China are the locals
Marc Faber : " whenever you have proliferation of fraud on a massive scale as we've sen now with Chinese companies it's a very very clear symptom of a bubble of a mania and of course you have more Chinese fraud companies in the US because the public does not know anything about China , secondly here in Hong Kong the regulators are also relatively relaxed but if you cheat Hong Kong Chinese you have to watch your kneecaps may be you do not have your kneecaps anymore , so I think that people are very careful in cheating Honk Kong people , plus the Hong Kong public is not totally stupid like in the US , people go and buy anything they buy anything , anything here in China is good , growing , China will be the biggest economy , it is already in many sectors the biggest economy but it does not lead necessarily to making money , in the 19th century in America you had canal boom railroad boom foreigners were always taken to the cleaners repeatedly , in China the people that had made money are the locals , the people that make money here in Asia mostly are the locals there are some foreigners that have made money but by in large it is a local story - in Bloomberg TV 23 June 2011
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Marc Faber : not to own any Gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life
June 23 2011: Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report,interviewed in Honk Kong by Bloomberg talks about his investment strategy and the outlook for global financial markets said that he Likes Gold, Silver and Will Keep Accumulating Gold : ...Yes I still like Gold and Silver but I think they'll go down for the next three months or so but I wouldn't short them and I keep on accumulating gold , I think Gold in the long run not not to own any gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Bernanke FOMC Press Conference - 22 June 2011
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives insight on why the FOMC downgraded economic growth by half a percentage point and decided to hold rates steady.
Ben Bernanke :"good afternoon, welcome. in my opening remarks today, i'll briefly review today's policy decision and I'll place the decision in the context of our economic projections and our policy strategy. I'll then be glad to take your questions. throughout today's briefing my goal will be to reflect the consensus of the committee while taking note of the diversity of views as appropriate. of course, my remarks and interpretations are my own responsibility. as indicated in the policy statement released earlier this afternoon, the committee decided today to keep the target rating and the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25%. the committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and the subdued outlook for inflation in the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. the committee plans purchases of $600 billion of longer-term treasury securities will be completed by the end of this month and the committee will continue to reinvest principal payments from a securities holdings going forward. in conjunction with today's meeting, the FOMC participants submitted projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate for the years 2011 to 2013 and over the longer run"
Ben Bernanke :"good afternoon, welcome. in my opening remarks today, i'll briefly review today's policy decision and I'll place the decision in the context of our economic projections and our policy strategy. I'll then be glad to take your questions. throughout today's briefing my goal will be to reflect the consensus of the committee while taking note of the diversity of views as appropriate. of course, my remarks and interpretations are my own responsibility. as indicated in the policy statement released earlier this afternoon, the committee decided today to keep the target rating and the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25%. the committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and the subdued outlook for inflation in the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. the committee plans purchases of $600 billion of longer-term treasury securities will be completed by the end of this month and the committee will continue to reinvest principal payments from a securities holdings going forward. in conjunction with today's meeting, the FOMC participants submitted projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate for the years 2011 to 2013 and over the longer run"
Matt Taibbi : Michele Bachmann's Holy War !
Matt Taibbi : Michele Bachmann is not stupid , she is crazy and she believes a lot of things that are completely nuts says Matt Taibbi , she doesn't really know a whole a lot of things she is very confused about a lot of things but she really knows how to do politics she is a relentless campaigner she is not like Sarah Palin she like the campaigning aspect of it and she is going to be a formidable opponent Matt Taibbi said
Marc Faber : Japanese Equities Inexpensive
Marc Faber : Yes I think that the Japanese equities Inexpensive but I do not think they'll run away right now , I think they'll move sidewards to down somewhat because of the correction I am expecting in global markets that probably has already begun but from a longer term perspective if you have to chose between say US equities emerging markets equities Japanese equities European equities I think that people should overweight Japanese equities " - in CNBC
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Rick Santelli vs Steve Liesman on QE3
Rick Santelli says that Bernanke was put in charge of fixing the unfixable : "you know, many people down here have high respect for mr. Bernanke, they don't agree with him and don't necessarily believe that he will have the conviction in the economy to do anything other than continue on the same road. i don't know if that answers the question. listen, this is one man mostly an academic background in charge of fixing the unfixable. i guess that's a good place to leave it, in my opinion"
Marc Faber & Jim Rogers on Europe Demographic problems
Marc Faber : ...One of the reasons that we have a low birth rate in Europe is it is very expensive to have babies , in Asia is not that expensive to have babies and the divorce laws are very unfavorable in western Europe that will have to change so that people again will be more inclined to get married because the risk will be lessened but in Eastern Europe and in Russia the birth rate have been very low because of economic conditions , if economic conditions will improve ..." Jim Rogers pointed out that in Spain which was poor and they got more prosperous but in the same time their birth rate became the lowest in Europe , at the present projections there will be no Spanish in hundred years
Monday, June 20, 2011
Mohamed El-Erian, Nothing but bad choices for Europe
Mohamed El-Erian "...I was in Europe last week and there's nothing but bad choices. they're looking at a series of bad choices which makes it very difficult to take a decision. so as Michelle said, they've decided not to decide when it comes to the creditors. meanwhile Greece is seeing a tremendous amount of bickering and the issue is nothing so far has been done to solve the two problems Greece has. one, compete excessive debt and inability to grow. it will weigh on our markets here and we'll see the same set of headlines over and over again and we cannot continue to kick the can down the road because we're coming to the end of the road in Greece. "
"first you recognize it's a solvency issue, not a liquidity issue. second you recognize that waiting has contaminated it. so part of the problem now is that the ECB balance sheet has gotten contaminated. so you need to have an action plan for that. thirdly, you need to protect the economies that do not have the characteristics of Greece, but could get contaminated. Spain, Italy. you need to move on plan b quickly, otherwise you're going to get stuck and everything's going to be more difficult. a year ago the ECB balance sheet was not contaminated so we could have solved it easier. today it is contaminated, so it gets more complicated. and six months time, gets even more complicated. so waiting around, not to kick the can down the road, but just waiting around makes the solution even more difficult."
"first you recognize it's a solvency issue, not a liquidity issue. second you recognize that waiting has contaminated it. so part of the problem now is that the ECB balance sheet has gotten contaminated. so you need to have an action plan for that. thirdly, you need to protect the economies that do not have the characteristics of Greece, but could get contaminated. Spain, Italy. you need to move on plan b quickly, otherwise you're going to get stuck and everything's going to be more difficult. a year ago the ECB balance sheet was not contaminated so we could have solved it easier. today it is contaminated, so it gets more complicated. and six months time, gets even more complicated. so waiting around, not to kick the can down the road, but just waiting around makes the solution even more difficult."
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Dr. Marc Faber Tomorrow's Gold
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
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