Friday, July 29, 2011
Marc Faber : Gold is nowhere near a bubble
Marc Faber : Well, ...... in the course of my life, I think that if I followed what the Jews are doing, you’re usually on the side of the winners in terms of money. They’re very smart at making money. And I have numerous Jewish friends that have either like eighty or a hundred percent of their money in gold, silver, or gold/silver mines and so forth. And I have other Jewish friends that have between thirty and fifty percent of their money in gold and silver. So I personally have less. I have like now maybe twenty percent of my money in gold and silver and in mining stock. But on any meaningful decline, say if gold, and we can’t rule that out and I’m saying that in every newsletter I write -- a correction can occur that is meaningful. Like gold started its bull market in 1971. And it reached a peak in ’74 of a hundred ninety seven dollars an ounce. And then between December ’74 and August ’76, at the time the Dow Jones went up very strongly because Dow Jones bottomed out in the bear market of ’73, ’74, in December ’74. But during that time of stocks going up, ’74 to ’76, gold went down by more than forty percent -- from hundred ninety seven dollars an ounce to hundred four dollars an ounce. There’s a big, big correction. But then gold went up eight times. And I’m saying, you know, you buy gold today -- I don’t know, maybe it goes down a hundred dollars. Maybe it goes down two hundred dollars. But looking at all the factors we discussed, I don’t believe that we are in a bubble stage. Because I lived through the last bubble in the late seventies. I can tell you, the whole world followed the gold market day and night and traded gold twenty four hours a day like the whole world traded NASDAQ stock twenty four hours a day in ’99 and 2000. That hasn’t happened yet. We don’t have a heavy waiting. We don’t have a heavy kind of euphoria about gold at all. I know so many people, they bought gold, they paid three, four hundred dollars. Where was that thousand, they sold it? They sold it at twelve hundred. And that price has never really corrected, it never goes back. It never goes back. They’re sitting there empty. All I can say, the risk today as an investor is not to own gold, but it’s not to own any gold. If you have no gold at all, I think you’re taking a risk. And my advice is simply every month you put some money aside and you buy a little bit of gold. Depending if you’re very rich, you buy every month a ton. If you’re very poor, you buy every month an ounce or whatever it is, or a gram. But every month, you accumulate. You don’t worry about the price. Look to it and you just buy every month a little bit. And your grandchildren will be very happy about that unless the US government takes it away. That is a possibility with Mr. Bernanke. You just look at him. He’s basically not a particularly honest character.... - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
Mark Mobius : No Recession in the US !!!
Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group tells us why he does not think there will be a recession in the U.S. , "the consumer is well alive and kicking both in the US and in emerging markets , s I am not too frightened about a problem of a recession in the US " "government is what is killing the enterprise in the US "
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Catherine Austin Fitts : we are having a financial coup detat
Catherine Austin Fitts : we have trillion dollars missing from the federal accounts depending who you talk to we have 12 to 27 trillion extended or given to the banks as a gift that's total 12 + 4 = 16 trillion that's more than the total outstanding debt of the country this is not a fiscal crisis this is a political crisis because we are having a financial coup d etat , i other words if you can steal money every year and then say our problem is that we do not have any money , no the problem is not that we do not have any money or that we are not living financially responsible the problem is you're stealing ....
Marc Faber : hyperinflation is an inflation that gets out of hand
Marc Faber : Well, actually, it hasn’t happened yet. But you understand, hyperinflation is an inflation that gets out of hand after a period of relative calm. I mean, in Germany, prices started to increase in, stay in the hyperinflation in 1918 after the war, 1919. And they only really exploded on the upside in ’22, ’23. And the same happened in Argentina, in Latin America. So I’m still wondering where they can happen. And I happen to think that the likelihood has actually increased for the following reason. You know, if you go back to, say, January 1st, 2011, we were all celebrated New Year and a week earlier, we had Christmas. Who would have thought that the Middle East was in the process of blowing up? Who would have thought that NATO countries, that the bankrupt like Italy and not in a much better position like France would go to war against an idiot in Libya? I’m not saying he’s a nice person. I’m saying he’s an unpleasant character. If you went after all the unpleasant characters in the world, you would have to go after like a hundred eighty countries. So even worse than the other one. There’s no reason to be in Libya, no reason whatsoever. It’s a complete madness to fight in Libya. And if you fight, you have to fight to win. But they haven’t won in three months. He’s a man alone. He’s going to be a hero of the Revolution to stand up, whatever he dies of, eventually he’ll be removed but he’s a hero of the Revolution -- a man alone, standing up against the imperialistic, capitalistic, colonialist Western world. And I think what will happen eventually is the US -- if you read papers in the US and study, it’s all about how do we contain China. The Western world knows -- including western Europe and the US -- one way to control China is to control the oil in the Middle East. And if they control the oil in the Middle East, they can switch on the tab or close the tab to China. Because China, Japan, Taiwan, Laos, Korea, Hong Kong, they get ninety five percent of the oil from the Middle East. That is not the case for the US. The largest supplier of oil to the US is Canada and a large supplier is also Mexico and Venezuela and East Africa, Angola, Nigeria. The Chinese are a hundred percent on Middle Eastern oil. And the US and western powers, they will go and destabilize the Middle East and then try to control it. Well, obviously, they can only go this far because first of all, it will take a lot of money. They now, they are engaged in Libya, they’re engaged in Iraq, they’re engaged in Afghanistan. Next station, they have to be engaged in Pakistan, which is gradually shifting its alliance to China away from the US. Now, when the US went into World War II, debt to GDP was a hundred forty percent and they didn’t have unfunded liability for Medicare, Medicaid and Medicare. Now they have the unfunded liabilities and they have debt to GDP of three hundred seventy nine percent officially. But with the unfunded liability something like eight hundred percent. They’re not in a position to finance the war unless they print money. And so I think the geopolitical picture will eventually lead, in my opinion, to much higher inflation rates than what we’re seeing now.
And by the way, I think the inflation in the US is already much higher than what is being published by the media. And we know now about the media since Mr. Murdock is the largest media machinate. And since he, for sure, because I know some people who used to be in leading positions at News Corp in Asia -- he calls them every day. He checks everything that they do. He knew about the hacking in Britain for sure. And he sanctioned it.But this big business. Big business is dirty. But why is it dirty? Because it’s been made dirty by the government.
. - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
And by the way, I think the inflation in the US is already much higher than what is being published by the media. And we know now about the media since Mr. Murdock is the largest media machinate. And since he, for sure, because I know some people who used to be in leading positions at News Corp in Asia -- he calls them every day. He checks everything that they do. He knew about the hacking in Britain for sure. And he sanctioned it.But this big business. Big business is dirty. But why is it dirty? Because it’s been made dirty by the government.
. - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Marc Faber speaker at Eagles Talent
Dr. Marc Faber was a speaker at Eagles Talent Speakers Bureau in New York , he narrated how he got involved with Wall street and the investment world and particularly how he moved to Asia and stayed there in the 70s : Marc Faber believes that today there are far more opportunities in Asia than there were at that time , back then there was still Mao Tse Dong in China Viet Nam was in war and you could not invest in India and Indonesia did not have a stock market
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Marc Faber : the US grossly neglected their infrastructure for the last 20 years.
Marc Faber : "...it’s very difficult to measure economic growth, very difficult to measure prosperity. But all I can say -- when I started to travel the world in the seventies and I went to, say, Latin American countries, to Eastern Europe countries, to Asian countries -- all these countries were way behind the US, way behind the US in every respect. And today, the infrastructure in most of these countries is actually better than in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco. Also, it’s natural because these countries put their infrastructure in in the last ten, twenty years whereas the US -- and that is another problem that nobody, or very few people, talk about -- the problem of the US is that they grossly neglected their infrastructure for the last twenty years. In other words, they have the same trains, they have to run on the same rail track and that hasn’t been modernized by and large. They have the same subways that they had fifty years ago and so forth. And much too little as the percent of the economy has been invested. It’s all been spent. Consumption. And that doesn’t create wealth. What you consume, what you eat is gone. What you use in gasoline and burn is gone unless it’s used for running factories that produce something. So basically, the US economic policy, it’s not just a monetary problem. But the entire economic policies have been to perpetuate an American dream and live beyond means for the last twenty to thirty years. And that’s just not realistic. It was built on borrowing more and more to offset the declining income in real terms -- you know, those inflation adjusted terms. And now, the power of to borrow more is gone...." . - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
Monday, July 25, 2011
Marc Faber : US and Europe have become Police States
Marc Faber : Well, first of all, I grew up in the fifties and sixties. I was born in ’46 so in the late fifties, I was, say, twelve to fourteen years old. And I have to say, in general, we were much more free than we are today. We had much more freedom to do things and to do stupid things. Today, everything is controlled -- not only in the US, but also in Europe -- they have become police state where everything is controlled and checked upon either by the police or the IRS or by the PSA or whatever it is. But you are restricted in every movement you make, basically.
Secondly, at the time I grew up, we still had fixed exchange rates. We had Bretton Woods -- in other words, a quasi gold standard, which no longer exists today. And the ability to print money today and to run huge trade and current account deficits is much higher today than it was at that time. In ’71 under President Nixon on August 26th, the US went off the gold standard and that led then to the inflation of the seventies and the gold price rising from thirty dollars to eight hundred fifty dollars. - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
Secondly, at the time I grew up, we still had fixed exchange rates. We had Bretton Woods -- in other words, a quasi gold standard, which no longer exists today. And the ability to print money today and to run huge trade and current account deficits is much higher today than it was at that time. In ’71 under President Nixon on August 26th, the US went off the gold standard and that led then to the inflation of the seventies and the gold price rising from thirty dollars to eight hundred fifty dollars. - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Marc Faber : at least in China they use credit to make capital investments not to to buy McDonalds hamburgers
Marc Faber : We have a credit bubble (in China ) . Credit has been growing at an annual rate of 30% and they had a huge stimulus package . But if you start with rapid credit growth with a debt-to-GDP of 100% is a different story than if you start from a debt-to-GDP of 600% if you include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So yes in China they have excesses, they have mal-investments and oversupply in some industries. But at least in China with credit they do something. They build railroads and roads and bridges and infrastructure and education and so on. In the United States credit is mostly used for consumption and that's a huge difference. Whether you use credit to make capital investments or you use it to buy McDonalds hamburgers or SUVs 'made in China !!! - in Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Marc Faber : the war in Libya is all about containing China
Marc Faber : well actually it has not happened yet , but you understand hyperinflation is an inflation that gets out of hand after a period of relative calm I mean in Germany prices started to increase in 1918 after after the war in 1919 and it only really exploded on the upside in 1922 1923 and the same happened in Argentina so I am still wondering when it could happen and I happen to think that the likelihood has actually increased for the following reason , you know if you go back say January first 2011 we were all celebrating the new year and a week earlier we had Christmas who would have thought that the middle east was in the process of blowing up who would have thought that a NATO country that are bankrupt like Italy and not in a much better position like France would go to war against an atheist in Libya , I am not saying that he is a a nice person I am saying that he is an unpleasant character , if you want to go after all the unpleasant character in the world you have to go after like 180 countries he is not worse than the other ones , there is no reason to be in Libya no reason whatsoever , it is a complete madness to fight in Libya and if you fight you have to fight to win , but what will happen in three months this man alone is gonna be a hero of the revolution to stand up , eventually he will be removed , but he is a hero of the revolution , a man alone standing up against the imperialistic capitalistic colonialist western world , and I think what will happen eventually if you read the paper in the US it is all about how we contain China , the western world knows including western Europe and the US , one way to control China is to control the oil in the middle east , and if they control the oil in the middle east they can switch on the tap or close the tap to China because China Japan South Korea Hong Kong Tai Wan they get 95 of their oil from the middle east that is not the case for the US , the largest supplier of the oil to the US is Canada and a larger supplier is also Mexico Venezuela West Africa Angola Nigeria , the Chinese are hundred percent dependents on the middle eastern oil , and the US and western powers they will go and destabilize the middle east and then try to control it , but obviously they can only go this far because first of all it will take a lot of money , see now they are engaged in Libya they are engaged in Iraq they are engaged in Afghanistan next station they have to be engaged in Pakistan which is gradually shifting its alliance to China away from the US , now when the US went into World War II debt to GDP was 140 percent and they did not have unfunded liabilities like medicare medicaid , now they have unfunded liabilities and they have debt to GDP 379 percent officially but with unfunded liabilities something like 800 percent they are not in a position to finance the war unless they print money , and so I think the geopolitical picture will eventually lead in my opinion to much higher inflation rates than what we are seeing now , and by the way I think the inflation in the US is already much higher than what it has been published by the media and we know now about the media since Mister Murdoch is the largest media magnate and since he for sure , because I know some people who used to be leading position at Newscorp in Asia he calls them everyday he checks everything that they do he knew about the hacking in Britain for sure , but this is big big business , and big business is dirty but why is it dirty ? because it has been made dirty by the government ..." - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
Friday, July 22, 2011
Marc Faber : do like the Jews Invest in Gold
Marc Faber : I think in the coarse of my life I think if I followed what the Jews are doing you are usually on the side of winners in terms of money they are very smart at making money , I have numerous Jewish friends that have like either 80 or 100 percent of their money in Gold Silver or Gold silver mines and so forth and I have other Jewish friends that have between 30 and 50 percent of their money in Gold and Silver , so I personally have less , I have like now may be 20 percent of my money in Gold and Silver and in mining stocks but on any meaningful decline and I say that in every newsletter I write a correction can occur that is meaningful like Gold started its bull market in 1971 and it reached the peak in 74 of 197 dollars an ounce and then between December 74 and August 76 at the time the Dow Jones went up very strongly , the Dow Jones bottomed out in the bear market of 73 - 74 in December 74 but during that time of stocks going up of 74 - 76 Gold went down by more than 40 percent from 197 dollars an ounce to 104 dollars an ounce , that's a big big correction but then Gold went up 8 times , I am saying you know you buy Gold today I do not know may be it goes down a 100 dollars here it goes down a 200 dollars but looking at all the factors we discussed I do not believe that we are in a bubble stage, , because I have lived through the last bubble in the late 70s I can
tell you that the whole world followed the Gold market day and night and
traded Gold 24 hours a day like the whole world traded NASDAQ stocks 24
hours a day in 1999 and 2000 that has not happened yet we do not have a
heavy weighting we do not have a heavy kind of euphoria about Gold at
all , the risk today is not to own Gold but to not to own any Gold , if
you have no gold at all I think you are taking a risk , and my advise is
simple every month you put some money aside and you buy a little bit of
Gold you do not worry about the price fluctuation buy every month a
little bit and your grand children will be very happy about that unless
the US government takes it away that is a possibility with Mr Bernanke
just look at him he particularly not a honest looking character ..."
- in The Financial Sense NewsHour Interview
- in The Financial Sense NewsHour Interview
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Marc Faber : Easy monetary policies create greed and bubbles
Marc Faber : ...well basically easy monetary policies create greed and bubbles , and one of the symptoms of bubbles and manias , investors manias is always the proliferation of Fraud , Embezzlement and dishonest practices , we have also in the US , I mean basically I would say Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were a complete fraud but of course the government will never admit that , I think the US government is a complete fraud with the exception of some decent but by in large it is a fraud it is a Ponzi scheme , - in the FSN interview
Marc Faber : I feel sorry for Mr Bernanke , academically he knows everything but he has no clue about the real world
Marc Faber : we can drop as many dollar bills on the United States , but we do not know where the money will flow to , it flowed into the NASDAQ until March 2000 then it flowed into the housing market until 2006 , 2007 but basically where economic activity was occurring and boosted was outside the US , and the more the US will print money the more in my opinion the dollar will depreciate against some currencies may be not all because say the Euro is certainly not more desirable than the US dollar , it will continue to depreciate against currencies like Gold Silver Platinum and probably Palladium , I mean I feel sorry for Mr Bernanke , because he really does not get it , he does not understand , he is a typical academic , you know a typical academic is a professor in medicine that knows everything about how a patient become sick but does not know how to cut something like a butcher and therefore can't operate on a patient , Mr Bernanke academically he knows everything but he has no clue about the real world no clue whatsoever- in Financial Sense Newshour Inreview 15 July 2011
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Marc Faber : Rupert Murdoch knew about the Hacking
Marc Faber : I think the geopolitical picture will eventually lead in mu opinion to much higher inflation rate than what we are seeing now , and by the way I think the inflation in the US is already much higher than what it is being published by the media , and we know now about the media since Mister Murdoch is the largest media magnate and since he for sure , because I know some people who used to be leading position at Newscorp in Asia he calls them everyday he checks everything that they do he knew about the hacking in Britain for sure , but this is big big business , and big business is dirty but why is it dirty ? because it has been made dirty by the government ..." - in Financial Sense News Hour Click Here to listen to the whole interview >>>>>
When the Gold Bull Market Turn Into a Gold Mania
Marc Faber "During the gold mania of the late 1970s, the whole world was watching gold day and night" - in The Financial Sense News Hour Interview
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Marc Faber : I could not criticize the governments in Asia as I do it in America
Marc Faber : " we have in the east not true democracies but for some funny reason we have a lot of economic freedom it is just that you have to be careful not to step on the government toes in terms of criticizing them too much , I mean the way I criticize Mr Bernanke and the way I criticize Mr Obama for sure I could not do it in China , for sure , and it would be viewed very negatively , see I live in Thailand and I am not here frequently , but if I went really off the government here I think I would have to be somewhat careful , this is still a great quality of the US , no matter what you say against the American leaders whether it is Mr Bush or Mr Obama , criticism is still accepted " - in Financial Sense News Hour 15 July 2011
Marc Faber : The US government bonds are already today junk bonds
Marc Faber - QE3, Inflation, Gold on Financial Sense July 15, 2011
Marc Faber : ...I think the deflationists they also have families they go shopping their families go shopping they pay educational cost they pay healthcare cost insurance cost and they see the fees on local government services increasing then I find it hard to believe that they will endorse the contest of deflation but obviously they may think that the economy may collapse and that as a result of that we may have deflation and that therefore you should buy long term US government bonds and my view is particularly in the deflationist scenario where you would have like Prechter said the Dow Jones below a thousand in that scenario you would not want to be in US government bonds and Cash for the simple reason that in that scenario the fiscal deficit in other words spending would exceed tax revenues even more than if you are actually optimistic about the economy , just consider if the Dow Jones went below a thousand what kind of an economic environment would we be in , we would be in a total credit collapse we would be in a total economic collapse and we would have a complete corporate profit collapse and in a corporate profit collapse and in an economic depression what would you thing happens to tax revenues , they would collapse as well and so the revenues of the treasury would decline very meaningfully and the fiscal deficit which is now running say optimistically said at one and a half trillion if you counted unfunded liabilities that are growing every year proof that the fiscal deficit is more likely two to two and half trillion dollars , but let's say it is one and a half trillion , if that happens the Dow Jones below a thousand corporate profit collapsing and revenues collapsing the fiscal deficit for sure will be two to three trillion dollars and in that environment the quality of credit of the US as was suggested by Moody's yesterday would decline and US government bonds which I think are already today junk bonds would go and yield much more than less than three percent that they are yielding at present time , so particularly in a deflationist scenario you do not want to be in a government bonds "....
Marc Faber : ...I think the deflationists they also have families they go shopping their families go shopping they pay educational cost they pay healthcare cost insurance cost and they see the fees on local government services increasing then I find it hard to believe that they will endorse the contest of deflation but obviously they may think that the economy may collapse and that as a result of that we may have deflation and that therefore you should buy long term US government bonds and my view is particularly in the deflationist scenario where you would have like Prechter said the Dow Jones below a thousand in that scenario you would not want to be in US government bonds and Cash for the simple reason that in that scenario the fiscal deficit in other words spending would exceed tax revenues even more than if you are actually optimistic about the economy , just consider if the Dow Jones went below a thousand what kind of an economic environment would we be in , we would be in a total credit collapse we would be in a total economic collapse and we would have a complete corporate profit collapse and in a corporate profit collapse and in an economic depression what would you thing happens to tax revenues , they would collapse as well and so the revenues of the treasury would decline very meaningfully and the fiscal deficit which is now running say optimistically said at one and a half trillion if you counted unfunded liabilities that are growing every year proof that the fiscal deficit is more likely two to two and half trillion dollars , but let's say it is one and a half trillion , if that happens the Dow Jones below a thousand corporate profit collapsing and revenues collapsing the fiscal deficit for sure will be two to three trillion dollars and in that environment the quality of credit of the US as was suggested by Moody's yesterday would decline and US government bonds which I think are already today junk bonds would go and yield much more than less than three percent that they are yielding at present time , so particularly in a deflationist scenario you do not want to be in a government bonds "....
Monday, July 18, 2011
David Rosenberg , we are just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession
David Rosenberg , Gluskin Sheff & Associates saya that It has been a sub-par economic recovery,
"the stock market has actually done much better than i thought it would do because ultimately it will get priced off of corporate earnings and corporate earnings have done phenomenally well. the local economy has done far worse because the other component of the economy called labor income has done poorly. i don't think the stock market can stay divorced from the economy indefinitely." David Rosenberg says "...the small caps are part of the cycle. but the point on the overall recovery depends what your assumption is. my assumption is this was a balance sheet recession that we emerged from. so this was not a classic post-world war ii manufacturing inventory cycle that looks almost like a sign wave. if you look at centuries of data you'll find balance sheets of recession, asset deflation, rising savings rates. it's ultimately very deflationary. what you find is the recovery period tends to be fraught with fragility. it's not normal to have two soft patches this close together barely two years after the recession end. it happens in the context of a balance sheet recession. not in the manufacturing inventory cycle. everything is telling you just how soft the underbelly of the economy is. we're just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession." he added
"the stock market has actually done much better than i thought it would do because ultimately it will get priced off of corporate earnings and corporate earnings have done phenomenally well. the local economy has done far worse because the other component of the economy called labor income has done poorly. i don't think the stock market can stay divorced from the economy indefinitely." David Rosenberg says "...the small caps are part of the cycle. but the point on the overall recovery depends what your assumption is. my assumption is this was a balance sheet recession that we emerged from. so this was not a classic post-world war ii manufacturing inventory cycle that looks almost like a sign wave. if you look at centuries of data you'll find balance sheets of recession, asset deflation, rising savings rates. it's ultimately very deflationary. what you find is the recovery period tends to be fraught with fragility. it's not normal to have two soft patches this close together barely two years after the recession end. it happens in the context of a balance sheet recession. not in the manufacturing inventory cycle. everything is telling you just how soft the underbelly of the economy is. we're just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession." he added
Timothy Geithner, The US will not default
Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary, Discussing the plans for whether the debt ceiling is not raised " I have spent all day both days in the white house, and there's a lot happening as we try to work with leaders on both sides to bring people together to do something useful for the economy, do something about long term deficits. very important to have the leadership of the republican party definitively take default off the table." says Timothy Geithner " senator McConnell, Mr. Boehner, cantor have each said default is not an option and you saw senator McConnell propose last week a mechanism for making clear that the u.s. will not default. again, we need to make sure we'll do something about a long term deficit. we're still working very hard and the president said last week wants us to work towards the biggest, the largest budget agreement we can. " he added
Marc Faber : The US Will Default By Inflation
Marc Faber : "I don't think the US will default in terms of not paying the interest on its debt. They will though default via a falling dollar as Bernake begins printing more money," - in CNBC
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Economist John Williams on the Road to Hyperinflation 2014
John Williams - Financial Sense NewsHour 14 July 2011
John Williams of Shadow stats talks about the road to hyperinflation 2014 and the fake government numbers .Economist of Shadow Government Statistics and shadowstats.com founder John Williams claims government employment and inflation numbers are inaccurate, and economy is shakier than indicated.There is no way we could possibly pay our debt either we raise the taxes or we do not either we cut social security or we do not , we are headed towards a Wiemar Republic type of hyperinflation and a banana republic kind of government ....the whole system is collapsing
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Marc Faber - Financial Sense Newshour 15 July 2011
Marc Faber : ...I think the deflationists they also have families they go shopping their families go shopping they pay educational cost they pay healthcare cost insurance cost and they see the fees on local government services increasing then I find it hard to believe that they will endorse the contest of deflation but obviously they may think that the economy may collapse and that as a result of that we may have deflation and that therefore you should buy long term US government bonds and my view is particularly in the deflationist scenario where you would have like Prechter said the Dow Jones below a thousand in that scenario you would not want to be in US government bonds and Cash for the simple reason that in that scenario the fiscal deficit in other words spending would exceed tax revenues even more than if you are actually optimistic about the economy , just consider if the Dow Jones went below a thousand what kind of an economic environment would we be in , we would be in a total credit collapse we would be in a total economic collapse and we would have a complete corporate profit collapse and in a corporate profit collapse and in an economic depression what would you thing happens to tax revenues , they would collapse as well and so the revenues of the treasury would decline very meaningfully and the fiscal deficit which is now running say optimistically said at one and a half trillion if you counted unfunded liabilities that are growing every year proof that the fiscal deficit is more likely two to two and half trillion dollars , but let's say it is one and a half trillion , if that happens the Dow Jones below a thousand corporate profit collapsing and revenues collapsing the fiscal deficit for sure will be two to three trillion dollars and in that environment the quality of credit of the US as was suggested by Moody's yesterday would decline and US government bonds which I think are already today junk bonds would go and yield much more than less than three percent that they are yielding at present time , so particularly in a deflationist scenario you do not want to be in a government bonds "....
Friday, July 15, 2011
Marc Faber : The risk for investors is not to own any Gold
Marc Faber : " ...well basically , I think the risk for investors is not to own any Gold , but obviously it will also fluctuate like the dollar against the Euro moves it moves against the Yen it moves against the Swiss franc and so forth , and we could once have a period where the dollar strengthens somewhat under some conditions but quite frankly I do not see a huge downside risk for Gold let's say may be ten percent or so and I rather see that over the next five to ten years we will have substantially and I have to repeat substantially higher Gold prices or expressed differently substantially lower purchasing power of paper money , and I agree with what was said earlier that say under a rigid monetary system where you have let's say Gold as an anchoring in other words you have some kind of gold standard cash is a riskless asset , but in today's environment of money printing cash at zero interest rate is not a riskless asset it is actually very risky except for brief period of time , period during which asset markets correct on the down side " in CNBC Interview 14 July 2011
Marc Faber : QE3 will be a certainty if the Dow Jones or the S&P drop ten twenty percent
Marc Faber : " I think if the Dow Jones drops say ten , twenty percent from here or the S&P drops by similar amount ten twenty percent QE3 will be a certainty but the question is then whether the market can make a new high , I think we seen the high of the market when the S&P hit 1370 almost two months ago and that is high for the yield will stand that is not make new high " ..."
in CNBC Interview 14 July 2011
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Marc Faber CNBC Interview 14 July 2011
Marc Faber : "well basically I do not think they will default in terms of not paying the interest on the government debt but I think that they will default in terms of paying back the debt and the interest with depreciated or worthless dollars as a result of the FED or specifically Mister Bernanke money printing "
"Yes I think they will someway or somehow come to an agreement or they'll fiddle around with the debt ceiling or invoke the constitution whereby the president in special situations can actually increase the debt of the United States , something will happen but I do not think they will default on the debt , but I just like to point out where I disagree with the bonds bulls , the bonds bulls basically built their case around deflation , in a deflationary environment you would have essentially the Dow Jones collapsing corporate profit collapsing the economy performing very badly and in that environment the tax revenues will collapse and so the fiscal deficit instead of staying at this level or even coming down in an optimistic scenario will actually increase and so the quality of the US debt will diminish and actually for me it is mind boggling that somebody will buy a ten year US treasury at a yield of less than 3 percent denominated in US Dollars "
Marc Faber, author and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report joined CNBC to discuss a potential US default. Bob Parker, Senior Advisor at Credit Suisse and Sarah Hewin at Standard Chartered Bank joined the discussion.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Marc Faber: Time to Buy US Real Estate, but Choose Carefully
Marc Faber : It's Time to Buy US Real Estate, but Choose Carefully ,Marc Faber explains why now may be a good time to pick up some cash-flowing rental property in the United States, but you must buy carefully. He also explains why he buys his own rental properties for all cash, using no leverage. Marc Faber believes that precious metals investors will endure more volatile swings in the short term, but he's still holding his gold and silver as central banks continue to debase currencies.
Bernanke Testimony on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke makes an opening statement on the current state of the economy and his forecast on inflation.
Ben Bernanke :"...i'll begin with the discussion of current economic conditions and outlook and then turn to monetary policy. the u.s. economy has continued to recover and the pace of expansion so far this year has been modest. after increasing in the second half of 2010, real GDP rose at 2% rate in the first quarter of this year and incoming data suggesting that the pace of recovery remains soft in the spring. at the same time, the unemployment rate at the turn of the year has moved back above 9%. in part, the recent weaker than expected economic performance appears to have been the result of several factors that are likely to be temporary. notably, the run-up in prices of energy, especially gasoline and food has reduced purchasing power. the supply chain caused vehicle motor producers to curtail assemblies and limit the availability of some models. looking forward, however, the apparent stabilization in the prices of oil and other commodities should ease the prices on household budgets and vehicle manufacturers report that they are making significant progress in overcoming the part shortages and expect to increase production substantially this summer. in light of these developments, the most recent projections by recent members of the federal reserve board and banks prepared in conjunction with the FOMC meeting in June reflected their assessment of the pace of economic recovery will pick up in coming quarters..."
Ben Bernanke :"...i'll begin with the discussion of current economic conditions and outlook and then turn to monetary policy. the u.s. economy has continued to recover and the pace of expansion so far this year has been modest. after increasing in the second half of 2010, real GDP rose at 2% rate in the first quarter of this year and incoming data suggesting that the pace of recovery remains soft in the spring. at the same time, the unemployment rate at the turn of the year has moved back above 9%. in part, the recent weaker than expected economic performance appears to have been the result of several factors that are likely to be temporary. notably, the run-up in prices of energy, especially gasoline and food has reduced purchasing power. the supply chain caused vehicle motor producers to curtail assemblies and limit the availability of some models. looking forward, however, the apparent stabilization in the prices of oil and other commodities should ease the prices on household budgets and vehicle manufacturers report that they are making significant progress in overcoming the part shortages and expect to increase production substantially this summer. in light of these developments, the most recent projections by recent members of the federal reserve board and banks prepared in conjunction with the FOMC meeting in June reflected their assessment of the pace of economic recovery will pick up in coming quarters..."
Marc Faber : my stock portfolios are concentrated in Asia
Marc Faber : ..I suggest that people accumulate Gold , they should not market time the Gold market because we are going to have volatility and so on and so forth , but if I look at the faces of Tim Geithner of Ben Bernanke of Mister Obama and Larry Summers that I will never sell any gold that's for sure , as long as these people are essentially structuring economic policies fiscal and monetary policy and foreign policy no thank you I will keep my Gold ....I will not buy paper money , but I also have stock portfolios but my stock portfolios are concentrated here in Asia I think this year they'll go down in value but I do not feel comfortable holding too much cash because ultimately cash will be worthless - in The Financial Times
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Marc Faber on the Debt Ceiling increase in America
Economist Marc Faber publisher of the gloom Boom and Doom report interviewed by Financialsurvivalpod on the debt ceiling in America and what should happen to fix the debt situation : "...well I think the problem is this you have two parties , the democrats they want to spend and the republicans do not want to increase taxation , as an economist I would say that the republicans are probably closer to the right way namely to spend less and to actually lower taxation for everybody , but my argument has always been the best for the US would be to have a flat tax on everybody say 12 or 15 percent and no exceptions no interest rates deductions and so forth and so on and everybody who works has to pay tax and the people that do not work and are on social security or they are on unemployment benefits they should have lower representation in government in other word their words should be diminished " ..."the Democrats will say well we'll cut spending and the spending cuts will come in five years time and the Republicans will say yeah we increase taxation and the tax increase will come in three years time , you perform the problem again ...."
Monday, July 11, 2011
China heading for an economic slowdown
Marc Faber : some countries export more to China than to the US or to other parts of the world such as Australia Brazil and Canada " "
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Steve Keen : Bankers have to be kept inside boxes , not let out
Max Keiser interviews Steve Keen, economist and author of the book Debunking Economics. -On the Edge - 07-08-2011
Steve Keen : the bankers make money by creating debt , and if they can persuade us to take more debt than we actually should take on there will be crisis , and the easiest way to persuade us to do that is to start an asset class bubble , when the bubble starts they fund the bubble , they make lots of money because their debt levels rise and they make money on the margin between deposit rates and loan rates times how much debt outstanding , so the more debt there is the better they are , and we were silly enough letting them getting away with it yet again when the Great Depression should have taught us once and for all 'Bankers have to be kept inside boxes , not let out'
Steve Keen : the bankers make money by creating debt , and if they can persuade us to take more debt than we actually should take on there will be crisis , and the easiest way to persuade us to do that is to start an asset class bubble , when the bubble starts they fund the bubble , they make lots of money because their debt levels rise and they make money on the margin between deposit rates and loan rates times how much debt outstanding , so the more debt there is the better they are , and we were silly enough letting them getting away with it yet again when the Great Depression should have taught us once and for all 'Bankers have to be kept inside boxes , not let out'
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Bill Still : Ron Paul is wrong , ending the FED is a diversion
Bill Still : ....for the first time in history we have reached a state of debt saturation , the quantity of debt flooding around in all national money system is so great now that the interest is absolutely killing the economy , and unless Ron Paul addresses that he is not doing us any favors , ending the FED will do absolutely nothing because it is not the FED , The FED is just like the curtain in the wizard of OZ it is hiding the wizard and in this analogy the wizards are the big banks behind the curtain it is not the FED , the FED is just a big fake-out designed to make us think that we the people through our government , the FED is controlling the big banks when in fact it is not the case at all , I grow up in the DC area and in the DC phone book the FED is not listed in the blue government pages it is listed in the white private company pages private corporate pages under the very same page as the Federal Express , it got nothing to do with the government but everybody thinks it has something to do with the government and that is specifically designed to make people think that the FED is ultimately the problem when it is not , it is the big banks and their ability to create money out of nothing that is our problem that's hat we have to fix ...says Bill Still, the producer of the films The Money Masters and The Secret of Oz and the author of the book No More National Debt....ending the FED is a diversion
Friday, July 8, 2011
David Rosenberg Sees Semi-Permanent Hurdles to U.S. Growth
David Rosenberg chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, Sees `Semi-Permanent' Hurdles to U.S. Growth . He talks to Bloomberg TV about the June U.S. employment report and the outlook for the economy.there is no way that the housing market has bottomed says David Rosemberg , while job growth slows and unemployment rises
Marc Faber : Farmland is still relatively inexpensive
Marc Faber : ...When I came in 1973 to Hong Kong I thought that property prices are very high here compared to say Switzerland and they were very high , and every year basically with few exceptions property prices have continued to go up , I think farmland relatively speaking is not terribly expensive , can there be a set back , yes may be you buy today a farm and you lose 20 percent of your money , but to lose 20 percent of your money is better than to lose everything , so I think that people today investors need to diversify they need to own some real estate they need to own some farmland they need to own some equities some cash and some precious metals - in CNBC
Marc Faber : Central Banks around the world are debasing the value of money
Marc Faber : ...well the thing is this I used to think that he (Ben Bernanke) is not particularly smart , but now I think that he is not particularly honest , and I actually do not pay any attention anymore to what he says I just look at say inflation figures but real inflation figures not the ones that are published by the government and I look at market action , I mean there must be a reason why over the last ten years the price of Gold and Silver are up more than five times it's money printing and the loss of purchasing power of paper money and this is what central banks have been doing not just in the US but also elsewhere- in CNBC
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Marc Faber likes Geographical diversification
Marc Faber : I would not put all my money in any emerging economy or in any country. I would have a geographical diversification. I would also have a diversification in assets, some commodities, some equities, some bonds, some cash and some real estate. So I would not put all my money into India to start with. - in ET Now
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Marc Faber outlook for the Indian Market
Marc Faber : Markets have peaked out and I think we are in a correction period. We had a huge move in India from the lows in 2009 to the recent highs, and we are coming down now. We may drop another 10-20%, who knows? Longer term I am reasonably positive for the Indian economy or very positive for the Indian economy. But what disturbs me nowadays are less economic factors than geopolitical factors because the friendship between India and America has been renewed and expanded and that is a threat to China and so China is getting closer. They have always been close to Pakistan and that creates a new set of tensions. We could have a lot of volatility in asset markets as a result of geopolitical trends. " - in ET Now 24 June 2011
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Asset markets will continue to drift lower for the next 3 months or so
Marc Faber : No further stimulus. We have to qualify that statement. I think they will end QE2 and not tighten monetary conditions, but there could be a relative tightening the way we had it after the end of QE1 until QE2 was announced last August. So for the next three months or so, asset markets will continue to drift lower. Traditionally the month of May is very weak.Also June and then from June on, we have some seasonal strength developing until the end of July, early August and then we have weak September-October months, seasonally speaking. The markets are oversold at the present time. We could re-bounce somewhat from herein to the end of July and then have another ground draft in October-November, but my forecast is very simple. If the S&P were to drop from here by, say, another 10-20%, for sure, for sure you will get QE3. There is no doubt about this.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Marc Faber : Gold Mining Shares are quite inexpensive
Marc Faber : ..In the seventies by in large stocks did badly but there were big fluctuations every year so there was a lot of volatility and also if you bought at the lows of 74 , you actually made money , number two there were two sectors of the market that were very strong , energy and mining these two were very very strong , I think at present time Gold mining shares the exploration companies are quite inexpensive but I would even say that big oil companies are not terribly expenssive or natural gas companies so that is a sector I would eventually look at , I would say in the Gold mining sector you can buy the more established companies like Newmont Mining Corp. or Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold , the more exciting part are the exploration companies but they have also higher risk but for instance NovaGold was at 20 dollars two years ago it went down to about a dollar now it is about 4 , I mean the value of the company could easily be 15 , 20 dollars so there are a lot of companies that are still attractive , in the national gas base I would say a speculative investment Chesapeake Energy very good as gas prices recovers and one day it will recover , it is not easy to play it the recovery and then you have the Oil Companies the Exxon of this world and so forth they are not terribly expensive ..." - in tech ticker
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Marc Faber : the Euro and the US Dollar are both Sick currencies
Marc Faber : when Investors are going to realize that fiscal deficits are not going to come down that they'll stay very high , when they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois and when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run I think at that point the dollar will be weak but do not forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro both currencies are sick and so both could go down and ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will also appreciates against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong " -in Bloomberg
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Marc Faber outlook for Gold
Marc Faber : "...First of all it is true that gold has gone up from $252 in 1999 to now $1550 an ounce. However, at the same time over this 11-year period, the quantity of money in the world and the quantity of credit in the world has exploded. So that I could make a case that actually maybe gold is cheaper today than it was in 1999 adjusted for the increase in the quantity of money and credit.Secondly, today we have many more people that have become affluent, just think of the well-to-do people in India, then Indian middle class, the middle class in China, the well-to-do people in China, it has exploded over the last 11 years. And all these people I guarantee you, they are all essentially flooded with US dollars and so for them to take a little bit of their money and park it into gold is a no-brainer in the long run. I go to many conferences every year.They usually ask the audience even at resource conferences, how many of you have more than 5% of their portfolio assets in gold? I have been at a conference in Singapore two days ago, among 500 people involved in real estate, not one had more than 5% of his assets in gold. I guess most of them did not have any gold at all, and so if someone tells me it is a bubble, I can tell you in year 1999-2000, the whole world was gambling in NASDAQ stocks, in telecom stocks and the media companies everywhere in the world. Now most people that I know have actually already sold their gold. " - in ET Now 24 June 2011
Friday, July 1, 2011
Greece is bust, it is as simple as that
Marc Faber : "Greece is a bust, it is as simple as that. If it was a company, it would go into bankruptcy, into liquidation, into restructuring and the bond holders or the creditors would have to take huge haircuts, probably in the order of 70-80%. But here comes the government, of course the government and the IMF and the ECB, they know everything better than anybody else. So they bail it out. This is the problem I just explained. The financial system went bust. Now the governments are extending the credit and as a result, their credit worthiness is declining and eventually a lot of countries will go bust because they help the weak companies or the weak country survive. " - in ET Now
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies
Marc Faber : Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies. We are talking about stock portfolios. The question is do you buy today or you wait? I do not know when the markets will bottom out. I do not know when the QE3 will be implemented, but I would say in Asia, you have a lot of shares that have a dividend yield of between 4 and 7%. You have zero interest rates on deposits. So I do not think there is a huge downside risk in equities. Now can they go down 20-30%? Yes, but if you cannot take the pain of downside volatility in the order of 20-30%, then do not even get up in the morning from your bed, stay in bed.
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Dr. Marc Faber Tomorrow's Gold
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
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