Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Marc Faber on the US vs. The BRIC

Marc Faber : You right way but what we had in 2008 was the outperformance of the US and emerging economies’ stock markets and commodity markets got hit very hard but it lead to a major low in emerging stock markets that bottomed out between October 2008 and March 2009 and after that emerging stock markets outperformed the US until say the end of 2010.
So I think we may get a similar picture. That’s why when I read all the strategies that say - I think we should invest in the US, I say maybe that’s correct for the next three months or so but I would rather be looking at an entry point in markets like India over the next six to nine months. - in CNBC TV 18

The fundamental problems of the Western world is an over indebted society

Marc Faber :......essentially what you could get in the world is worsening geopolitical and economic conditions. Let’s say Israel attacks Iran. It’s a negative event basically but it could be counted by monetisation everywhere in the world in other words liquidity injections. So stocks could go up while conditions worsen. This usually happens when you massively inflate the quantity of money but from the mentally sound market in my opinion will only come about when the system has been cleaned and moved down after the financial crises of 2008 is essentially just painting the building with fresh paint but we haven’t addressed the fundamental problems of the Western world which is an over indebted society. - in CNBC TV18

The Correction phase in Gold is not completely over

Marc Faber : We have to distinguish between precious metals and industrial commodities. My concern is that the Chinese economy is going to be weaker than is expected and that the demand for industrial commodities will probably disappoint. So I am not particularly keen on buying industrial commodities at this stage. In the case of gold, as you know we had a 10-year bull market and we peaked out in dollar terms on September 6. 2011 at USD 1,921 per ounce at which stage the gold price had somewhat overshot on the upside and we are in a correction phase. I happen to think that the correction phase is not completely over but recently sentiment on both silver and gold have turned very negative. We may have a trading rebound year -trading rally and then some further weakness into possibly February-March and then probably a major low. Then the question will be whether the precious metals rally again and will they exceed the peak of 2011 or not - in CNBC TV18

Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies determine the price of money

Marc Faber : To make forecasts about free markets is very difficult. The free market and that perfectly functioning market is a market where no market participant has dominated the market but today you have a manipulated market. It is the governments which intervene continuously to influence the price of money in other words interest rates and fiscal policies so to make any predictions of political issues we can know exactly how far the ECB in Europe will monetize and at what stage QE3 will come about in the US but if the S&P drops another 10% you can be sure that there will be more QE in the US. So the markets would be supported by additional liquidity injections. - in CNBC-TV18

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