Barron's
:
Who knows, really? Let's look forward to how current excesses might be corrected.
Marc Faber: At some point, there will be a big
reset. In the democracies of the Western world, large numbers of people
will vote against the well-to-do. Throughout history, minorities have
been targeted. Now the rich will be targeted through some kind of wealth
tax or significantly higher tax rates. Eventually there will be so much
antagonism against well-to-do people that it won't be comfortable.
Also, geopolitical conditions could
deteriorate badly in the Middle East and Asia. America's reset toward
Asia has alarmed the Chinese, who won't tolerate U.S. interference long
term in the region. Then there's the possibility of a Black Swan event.
If the S&P 500 drops 20%, the Fed will print more money, so that's
not a huge downside risk. But the bond market could collapse, inflation
could accelerate, or the Chinese economy could implode. Or we could have
a destabilizing political event, or a pandemic. - in Barron's
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Saturday, June 1, 2013
Bubble, Bubble, Money and Trouble
Barron's
:
The Dow Jones industrials are up 17% this year. The
Nikkei has rallied 60%, even after its recent selloff, in response to
the Bank of Japan's asset purchases aimed at weakening the yen. Remind
us again why you're so negative on "money-printing." Shouldn't investors
be toasting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke right now?
Marc Faber: I own equities, and I should thank Mr. Bernanke. The Fed has been flooding the system with money. The problem is the money doesn't flow into the system evenly. It doesn't increase economic activity and asset prices in concert. Instead, it creates dangerous excesses in countries and asset classes. Money-printing fueled the colossal stock-market bubble of 1999-2000, when the Nasdaq more than doubled, becoming disconnected from economic reality. It fueled the housing bubble, which burst in 2008, and the commodities bubble. Now money is flowing into the high-end asset market—things like stocks, bonds, art, wine, jewelry, and luxury real estate. The art-auction houses are seeing record sales. Property prices in the Hamptons rose 35% last year. Sandy Weill [the former head of Citigroup] bought a Manhattan condominium in 2007 for $43.7 million. He sold it last year for $88 million.
Money-printing boosts the economy of the people closest to the money flow. But it doesn't help the worker in Detroit, or the vast majority of the middle class. It leads to a widening wealth gap. The majority loses, and the minority wins. Although I have been a beneficiary of this policy, I can't approve as an economist and social observer. - in Barron's
Marc Faber: I own equities, and I should thank Mr. Bernanke. The Fed has been flooding the system with money. The problem is the money doesn't flow into the system evenly. It doesn't increase economic activity and asset prices in concert. Instead, it creates dangerous excesses in countries and asset classes. Money-printing fueled the colossal stock-market bubble of 1999-2000, when the Nasdaq more than doubled, becoming disconnected from economic reality. It fueled the housing bubble, which burst in 2008, and the commodities bubble. Now money is flowing into the high-end asset market—things like stocks, bonds, art, wine, jewelry, and luxury real estate. The art-auction houses are seeing record sales. Property prices in the Hamptons rose 35% last year. Sandy Weill [the former head of Citigroup] bought a Manhattan condominium in 2007 for $43.7 million. He sold it last year for $88 million.
Money-printing boosts the economy of the people closest to the money flow. But it doesn't help the worker in Detroit, or the vast majority of the middle class. It leads to a widening wealth gap. The majority loses, and the minority wins. Although I have been a beneficiary of this policy, I can't approve as an economist and social observer. - in Barron's
Marc Faber : People with Assets are all Doomed
Barron's
:
Are you suggesting stocks are a bubble?
Marc Faber: I am suggesting that in the fourth year of an economic expansion, near-zero interest rates will lead to a further misallocation of capital. I thought the U.S. market would have a 20% correction last fall, but it didn't happen. I also said the market might explode to the upside before the correction occurred. We might be in the final acceleration phase now. The Standard & Poor's 500 is at 1650. It could rally to 1750 or even 2000 in the next month or two before collapsing. People with assets are all doomed, because prices are grossly inflated globally for stocks, bonds, and collectibles. - in Barron's
Marc Faber: I am suggesting that in the fourth year of an economic expansion, near-zero interest rates will lead to a further misallocation of capital. I thought the U.S. market would have a 20% correction last fall, but it didn't happen. I also said the market might explode to the upside before the correction occurred. We might be in the final acceleration phase now. The Standard & Poor's 500 is at 1650. It could rally to 1750 or even 2000 in the next month or two before collapsing. People with assets are all doomed, because prices are grossly inflated globally for stocks, bonds, and collectibles. - in Barron's
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