Marc Faber, investment environment at this time, January 2011

Marc Faber, investment environment at this time, at the Russia Forum January 2011
Marc Faber : After a period of heavy money printing war follows


Marc Faber :"....we are living in a very complex world and when I look at it , we have different asset classes equities bonds governments bonds , we have real estate and commodities and so forth and so on and depending on your perspectives you may chose different asset classes , they are no such a thing as the best emerging market I do not focus so much on BRIC , I focus on the developed world of the west , America and Western Europe and in terms of another industrialized nation Japan and everything else that is emerging where 80 per cent of world population lives , I do not find that one country is the best compared to another one because when it comes to assets there is no asset that is always the best , but an asset can be the best at the right price , when the price is depressed and the best asset if the price is too high is not a good asset so I think that we have to look at it that way ...from an investment point of view we have a big debate in the world whether we have a deflationary collapse or an inflationary boom , and I'd like to introduce a thought where you would chose an asset that will perform well under either condition , in a deflationary bust you have a credit collapse so the one thing you do not want to own are US government bonds , because they won't be able to pay , and before they can pay they will print money like there is no tomorrow so the dollar would continuously depreciate which obviously would be good for assets that you can multiply such as commodities and precious metals , I separate precious metals from commodities ...but then I also think if they print money what then usually happens is that the standards of living of the middle class and the working class goes down because the cost of living increases faster than wage gains and so the population becomes very dissatisfied and eventually the government do stay in power to distract the attention of the people either goes to war or blames a minority for the mishaps ,and so forth but usually after a period of very heavy money printing war follows ...so If I invest today, I am considering the following: it is conceivable that because of ultra expansionary monetary policies in the world, and ultra expansionary fiscal policies in the US in particular, we have a temporary crack up boom. And the demand for oil in the western countries which has been declining since 2008, starts to pick up, and combined the oil demand in the world surprises on the upside, and pushes up oil prices, which would be beneficial for the oil producers, in particular Russia and Kazakhstan. Or you have what I think eventually happens: a complete systemic breakdown. I am the most bearish person long-term. If there is a complete breakdown, as I described with money printing and war, you want to be in commodities, specifically oil, because during war times commodity prices go ballistic. So whether you are very bullish or very bearish you should invest in oil....."