Saturday, June 20, 2020

👉A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns !!

👉A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns !!

A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns. The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash. “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” Roach predicts a 35% decline in the U.S. currency against its major rivals in the near future, citing increases in the nation’s deficit and dwindling savings. He added that the rise of China and the decoupling of the U.S. from its trade partners is likely to end the supremacy of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Dr. Roach is right that sooner or later, manipulating the dollar for our own purposes will come back to bite us. So much of the US prosperity these past decades has come from having the "reserve currency" with the willingness (now gone) to make sacrifices for the world order. The bottom line is that $4 trillion in stimulus has been created to deal with Covid-19. The national debt just passed $26 trillion (130% of GDP). When you create more money, its value must go down, unless other currencies are also being increased at the same rate. While Europe and Japan have also passed their own stimulus, they haven't created proportionally as much new money as the US. Meanwhile, China and Russia have so far refrained from using unconventional fiscal policies. Russia's government debt as a percentage of GDP is actually among the lowest in the world. Not everyone is in the same boat. The US will one day have to face economic consequences for what it has been doing for decades. But what's going to replace the dollar? Certainly not the euro. The yuan? China is even more manipulative of the yuan than the US is of the dollar. China has no transparency, and it has massive internal yuan debt over two times its GDP that is its priority rather than supporting the yuan as the new world reserve currency. The dollar's appeal is that it is 'the cleanest shirt in dirty laundry.' But, it's going to take a lot more than structural change before the yuan can even begin to function as a reserve currency. When people get really scared they go to Swiss Francs or gold. Any asset that can be arbitrarily revalued at the whim of the Chinese Communist Party can only be speculative. The dollar can be replaced by a basket of convertible currencies. In fact, individual investors should do some of that through international diversification. The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. The days of the dollar as the world's reserve currency are numbered. This does not bode well for the future of the U.S. We have lost our leadership position in many areas. The decline will be painful. Oil and gold are starting to trade in other currencies. When the US dollar is no longer the world standard, America is in real trouble. The Federal Reserve deserves a huge part of the blame. The dollar is losing value against all major currencies. We have almost no savings and mountains of debt. We can't pay our bills unless the FED monetizes it. The political situation is not helping either, and it will continue and accelerate the downfall with more political turmoil and uncertainty. Some countries that are heavy US Dollar reserve holders will find themselves losing a lot of purchasing/exchange value. Trump destroyed confidence in the US, and he has alienated a ton of countries, including allies. China and Russia have already started trading oil in a non-dollar currency. If there's an alternative, other countries are certainly open to pursuing and using it. SDRs which were created by the IMF is a basket of currencies, albeit with the US dollar as the main currency. But that can change. With all that is going on in the US, more countries will look somewhere else. What's the dollar's future now that the Fed created an additional $5 trillion in just the last few months! This is an election year. The Fed could bail out every state, city, corporation, and pension plan even if it costs $50 trillion. We are going to use dollar bills as toilet paper within five years. Probably in three years. When the fed is printing trillions of dollars a month, something will eventually need to give. In the 1980s, the total debt was around 1 trillion. We are now adding that much each month to both the fed balance sheet and the national debt. Zimbabwe here we come. The dollar is a dead currency walking. With the Fed now creating more dollars in a month than they used to do in a year, we're going to have hyperinflation like Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany or Venezuela. Massive money printing always leads to hyperinflation. I expect the dollar to be dead within three years. China has been making deals all over the world to trade with other countries in the Chinese currency. The banknote known as the dollar was placed in a coffin by Nixon. Removing even the idea of the gold backing the currency spelled its death. It has been buried six feet ever since. All fiat eventually goes to zero. As the US continues to pump phony money, eventually we will be papering our walls with it. The Ruble and the Deutschmark at their lowest come to mind. First, the dollar falls, then rampant inflation kicks in. The US has done a magnificent job with the smoke and mirrors while debt keeps rising. Now the rest of the world is waking up to the fact that they might not be able to pay back all the loans. In principal, US dollars should lose 50% of its value by 2025 due to infinite QE that will have printed close to $20T by then. But, the strength of a currency is relative. The competitors of the US Dollar, such as the Euro, GBP, and Yen, are in a far worse state than the dollar. If you put $1 in a T-bill in Jan 2000 and held that until Jan 2015 before cashing it in, accounting for interest paid, taxes on that interest, and the currency devaluation over those 15 years, you would have just 75 cents of the original buying power of that dollar left. Investing in the US is a BAD financial decision. The rest of the world is waking up to that realization. The US dollar today has just 2 cents the purchasing power it did in 1950. When it finally loses its World Reserve status, it will jump from $1500 per oz of gold to $30,000 per oz of gold within a year. And the US will become just another 3rd world debtor nation. The dollar is as dead as the USSR ruble or the ancient Greek souvlaki. If you have any, you should rid yourself of them forthwith. You should hold your dollars in other assets and convert them when needed. Don't just let your dollars sit there in your bank account because that's where the damage will be done. Every other asset will go up, some much greater than others. The stock market has turned into a high-interest savings account; you hold it in there and convert when dollars are needed. Stocks will not keep up with inflation, but its better than dollars in a bank account. Commodities will outperform stocks, but it's useless trying to hold physical bushels, bales, or drums. That's why gold is the easiest commodity to deal with; $500,000 in gold can fit in a sock drawer. The dollar has failed twice before in our nation's history. Once after the revolution and again after the civil war. It's about to fail again. Expect your wheelbarrow that's hauling around all of your dollars will be worth far more than the dollars themselves. Expect a 15:1 reverse split on the dollar with a return to the gold standard. The last time our dollar was worth 100 cents was back in 1933. If you peg the purchasing power of the 2020 dollar to the 1933 dollar, the 2020 dollar's purchasing power will look like this .001. We are $26 trillion in National debt alone. States are in debt. State pensions are grossly underfunded by $1 Trillion. Personal debt is skyrocketing. The groundwork was laid at least since 08 when the last crash happened. China and Russia made agreements with hundreds of countries and not just insignificant ones, like England and Australia, to trade with their own currencies and bypass using the dollar. OPEC countries have been doing the same thing. Eventually, the dollar will fail. It’s inevitable. All fiat currencies fail. What’s next? Who knows? It could be a basket of currencies using special drawing rights from the IMF. More than likely, it will be digital, no more paper money. If ANY country on earth decides to just print dollars, FLOOD the world with paper money, then why work or waste time producing goods. There is a reason why China, Russia, Europe, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are all deciding to use different currencies besides the US dollars. The US is dead broke and held up by countries that lend it money by buying US treasury bonds and bills, and at the same time, the dollar grows in strength, indicating a strong US economy. This is further evidence of a broke system. There will be an intervention, and then the dollar will eventually fall to an appropriate level, approaching zero. Then the dung will really hit the fan. Our monetary system is based on inflation. The greater shame is very few of us realize that we also are taxed on that inflation. Think capital gains. What a scam. "It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." Henry Ford. I'm afraid 95% of Americans are too dumb to get it. Slave away at the 8-5 their entire lives for peanuts and get taxed at 50% while the FED "creates" trillions from nothing. No work or productivity, just money for nothing. The biggest scam of the last century, and still going strong today. Of course, for most in the USA, ignorance is bliss. Endlessly printing a currency may solve things in the short term, but long term, it causes serious damage to the value of that currency. This has been proven countless times in history. Now, do I think that the US Dollar is going to suddenly crash in value overnight, leaving us all in some doomsday financial apocalypse? Of course not. It is still a (generally) strong currency and the world reserve currency. Despite that, no fiat currency is invincible to endless printing. Eventually, the value WILL come down relative to other currencies, and things WILL shift...over time. How long that takes is anyone's guess. Hedge your bets. You'd be smart to keep at least some money in harder assets with limited supply. The good news a crash in the dollar will make America manufacturing and good, more attractive. If the dollar crashes, then all incentive to import stuff that was cheap will be gone. And stuff made in the USA will look inexpensive to the rest of the world. And the cycle continues. The dollar is being squeezed right now because of the sheer amount of dollar-denominated debt in the world (which tends to happen when you are the reserve currency of the world in such a globalized economy in the age of the internet). The danger to the dollar is that there isn't enough of them, of which everyone defaults, and something replaces it. I expect something similar to Bretton Woods to happen again, be the dollar pinned to Gold or Bitcoin or something. The deficits and money printing isn't serving the American people. It's serving the dollar backstop of the global economy. Global elites are getting ready and using the virus as an excuse to introduce a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies and hopefully some gold too. "What currency would you buy and hold for the next 50 years?" Absolutely none. At 2% yearly inflation, your holding would be worth 63% less after 50 years. The US Dollar is programmed to devalue at 2% a year. In fact, the economy could not survive without that induced devaluation. One hundred ten years of data from Macrotrends indicates silver appreciates at 4.3% per annum with the volatility that creates income opportunities for selling covered calls. Using an ETF like SLV, the metal indeed becomes a virtual currency, liquid enough to use. The reason silver certificates were pulled in 1963 was that the commodity value in a silver dollar for the first time rose above $1. It surpassed $1.33/oz in that year ( a silver dollar is 75% silver). It's now $17/oz. That should be all you need to know about how our monetary system works. Buy gold and end the FED, the dollar is being turned into toilet paper! Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the USA economy. Most of that spending is on goods we import, which means other people work to make them, some of it is good, but we don't invent and build anything to put our people to work. With COVID 19 mishandling, the spending is quite down to food mostly. The stock market paper gains are included in the economy, but most stay in the hands of very few people. It was decided back in 2008 that money has no actual value, so any saving not in the stock market produces ZERO income for their owners. Our governments have been lowering taxes for the rich while neglecting to improve the infrastructure, health/safety, education, and job training in a changing world economy, stuff that would benefit the American people. Politics has been about so-called social issues that make no difference in people's lives, all about ABORTION, GUNS, RELIGION, AND HATRED FOR IMMIGRANTS. NOW the chickens have come to roost. The U. S. can only make a new currency by default. Its bonds would become as poisonous as those of Argentina. Interest rates would soar. As America funds itself by borrowing money, social programs and public services would collapse, and the military would dwindle away. It would go into immense poverty, because it is a nation of consumers, and has little real wealth. Manufacturing has all gone abroad. America lives by devouring the world's goods in exchange for worthless paper dollars, which were forced upon humanity by brutality and fraud. Once the dollar goes to zero, America is nothing. What is worse, its destruction will be blamed on capitalism rather than socialism, so that all efforts to rebuild will be futile. The dollar being the world's reserve currency, allows the USA to run trillion-dollar deficits because it exports its inflation to the world, and the world absorbs it as the increasing population needs more reserve currency to conduct its business every year. That pretty well eats up the extra dollars the Feds keep printing each year to finance our federal deficits. If we were say Greece, the currency and country would have imploded decades ago, just like Greece did when it tried to run continuous deficits. The problem is our presidents, including Trump, are trying to use the dollar as a political weapon on countries like Iran, which will give countries a reason to use another currency to settle debts. China, Russia, and India are working on such a currency, When an alternative is available, the US dollar will implode, and the USA will be in a recession worse than 1929. Of course, it will fall because what goes up must come down eventually.No kidding! The Fed keeps adding zeroes to bank screens and buying stocks and bonds while propping up hedge funds. It is called the REPO market. In case of a default, The stock market and housing bubbles would deflate, causing losses of up to 90%. Pensions would be wiped out. All social programs would be cut. The price of goods and services would soar because there would no longer be a strong dollar to buy them with. The dollar would plummet in value. Unemployment would be lasting and horrific. And capitalism, instead of socialist central banking, would take the blame for it all, leading, possibly, to decades of misery under socialism. This is America's fate if it defaults. If it doesn't default, it has, at best, a few years longer before hyperinflation takes hold, and has to default anyway. Because, by this point, only tens of trillions per annum can keep yields sufficiently down for the system to function. They have tapered liquidity to $1.5 trillion per annum, and stocks are already slipping into a crash. It isn't enough. Food prices are rising because rather than the last 39 years of the Fed, creating credit and handing it to hedge fund managers and congress. Creating asset price inflation and runaway growth in medical spending and what amounts to welfare, corporate, and otherwise, new credit-money was handed to Joe Sixpack. You can't violate Say's Law with impunity. Creating purchasing power by any means OTHER than production simply increases the amount of money chasing whatever is in the marketplace. It doesn't add to what is available for purchase. Taken to the extreme, you have the situation in the USSR where people had rubles, but the shelves were bare. This is what flooding a nation with credit-created-from-nowhere produces. Under FIAT money, money was debt, so debt was wealth. People forgot that an IOU is nothing until it's paid-back. We now have a world drowning in "wealth" that is nothing but IOU's that depends on all other IOU's performing, when mathematically we long ago passed the point where this was true. All that "wealth" is an illusion. So is training people to forget that it's not about money-in-hand, it's about the product available for purchase. Goods availability is likely to crater in the next couple years, and if politicians attempt to make people whole by creating trillions in credit, all it will do is crush the average man's standard of living even more. Did the Trump administration open Pandora's Box by seizing the Fed's credit creation system? Only time will tell. For nearly 40 years, we witnessed credit-inflation on an unprecedented scale, but because it flowed into asset markets (including the value of debt itself), no one cared. We all seemed to get rich. Now, much of that wealth (in the form of debt, and in asset prices rationalized by its wealth-effect existence) is likely to disappear (mostly chaotically), but goods availability may plummet as well, meaning that prices could rise or fall, but affordability will plunge for many things. Oh, how the sky darkens with chickens coming home to roost. On second thought, that must be locusts. Currency collapses are usually followed by war. In the case of a collapse of a major global currency, that would mean global war. China / India may be the flashpoint. India, with the support of the US. China, with the support of Russia. The current system is being run to the ground by design, so the Fed can issue in a NEW system- henceforth why the Fed is "burning up dollars" to buy it all. We have been stolen into darkness by the evil greed of people for whom we voted. May I suggest Water, Food, Lead, Silver, and Gold in this order. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. Leave me a comment. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

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