David Rosenberg , chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates,and former Merrill Lynch North America Chief economist and Former Bank of Canada Chief economist says that he is 99.9% sure that there will be a recession next year that the FED will have to do a QE3 that there is no more room for another fiscal stimulus"I think that by 2012 I give it a 99 percent of occurring " " when you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recessions usually separate 5 years apart , but when you have a balance sheet recession we are talking about credit contraction asset deflation for example residential real estate , when you have these sort of balance sheet recessions the downturn tends to be separated every two , two and half years so I think that by 2012 that will be roughly the time we going to see the next downturn "
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