Monday, July 18, 2011

David Rosenberg , we are just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession

David Rosenberg , Gluskin Sheff & Associates saya that It has been a sub-par economic recovery,
"the stock market has actually done much better than i thought it would do because ultimately it will get priced off of corporate earnings and corporate earnings have done phenomenally well. the local economy has done far worse because the other component of the economy called labor income has done poorly. i don't think the stock market can stay divorced from the economy indefinitely." David Rosenberg says "...the small caps are part of the cycle. but the point on the overall recovery depends what your assumption is. my assumption is this was a balance sheet recession that we emerged from. so this was not a classic post-world war ii manufacturing inventory cycle that looks almost like a sign wave. if you look at centuries of data you'll find balance sheets of recession, asset deflation, rising savings rates. it's ultimately very deflationary. what you find is the recovery period tends to be fraught with fragility. it's not normal to have two soft patches this close together barely two years after the recession end. it happens in the context of a balance sheet recession. not in the manufacturing inventory cycle. everything is telling you just how soft the underbelly of the economy is. we're just one small shock wave away of having the economy going back into the recession." he added



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

LinkWithin

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...