Marc Faber : China looks ‘quite attractive’ right now

"China looks quite attractive," said Faber. "For the next three months, money can flow into China. The economy, surprisingly, has begun to do quite well. We see that in retail in Hong Kong. We see that in the hotel industry, and we see that in the demand for commodities."















Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Marc Faber: China Has Credit Bubble of Epic Proportions

 Oct. 26 -- Marc Faber, publisher of the "Gloom, Boom and Doom" Report, examines China's economic slowdown and what he sees as an "epic" credit bubble in the nation. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›.










Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

China Growing at 4% per annum at The very best estimates Marc Faber

My estimate is that at the very best the Chinese economy is growing at the present time at say 4% per annum and not at 7.8 or 8% as the government claims. We have relatively reliable statistics like auto sales and freight loadings that are down year on year, electricity consumption, exports, imports and so forth. So there has been a remarkable slow down and to answer your question about commodity prices, if the global economy slows down as much as I do believe, because other economists predict an acceleration of global growth, a healing of global growth, my sense is that it is the opposite, that within 6 months to one year we are back into recession and then it will depend on central banks and what they will do. Up until now, they have always printed money and I suppose they will continue to do that .








Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

China is heading for a Crisis

I am leaning towards the view that China is heading for a crisis. The question is whether they can postpone the problems with fiscal or monetary problems for a year or so,’ Marc Faber told Citywire .
‘Maybe in China they can postpone a crisis for a while but when you look at the expansion of debt to GDP of 50% over the last couple of years, clearly that is not going to be sustainable for a long time.’
Faber estimates China to be growing at around 4% per annum, far below the 7.8% estimate of the Chinese authorities. If growth were to fall much below this, it would be more damaging to the global economy than the US government shutdown, he said.

'People are so concerned about the fiscal problems in the US but I think these are relatively minor compared to what would happen to the world if China had a crisis,' he said.





Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

High chance for a hard landing in the Real Estate Sector in China

Absolutely! With regards to China, no one knows what will happen but can we exclude a possible hard landing of China? And the question is when it comes to this, do you believe it will have an impact on the geopolitical power shift or is it just a short-term intermezzo for the rise of China?

Marc Faber: Well, I think that there is a very high chance for a hard landing in the real estate sector, because we have a gigantic credit bubble. Usually these are created during the periods when credit expands at a faster pace than the economy and are followed by some kind of hardship. I do not rule out that government interventions can postpone the problem. They will bring about new misallocations of capital and maybe even make things worse. However, because China is so large I think that many sectors can still thrive in an environment where, for example, the real estate market collapses, so I do not think that the impact will be that strong.

We’ve seen what happened before with the bailout of Mexico in 1994 and the Asian crisis in 1997. If Mexico had failed at the time, we may have had a more significant setback in emerging economies in the mid-1990s, but we wouldn’t have had the depression that followed in 1998. So in my view, government intervention can postpone the problem but it may also make the situation actually worse by not letting the market clear as soon as some signs of problems appear. If, for example, LTCM hadn’t been bailed out, I don’t think the whole system would have collapsed. Some people would have lost money, I guess Goldman Sachs and the counterparties of LTCM, but it would not have been a threat to the global financial system. But this is what’s being presented to the public by the interventionists, who argue: ‘Had we not intervened, the whole world would have collapsed’. - in goldsilverworlds.com


Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

China is Lying about its Growth

How do you see the economy in China, will it get a lot worse before it gets any better?

Marc Faber : Well, nobody knows for sure and I’d like to remind you and your readers that China is unlike any other country. It is twice the size of Europe and the US combined in terms of population. So it is a huge empire and giant economy. My view is that the economy is not growing at the rate the government claims it is. The economy is growing at maximum 4% per annum, because when you look at export and import statistics of countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and their trade figures with China, you will find it is not growing or is hardly growing. Under the interventionists in China there will obviously be monetary easing, fiscal spending and so forth, like anywhere else. And so, they can maybe postpone the problems but in general, I would say the remarkable thing about the last twelve, fifteen years is that in the case of metals, Chinese consumption has grown from 12% of world consumption in year 2000 to now 47% and this Chinese consumption of industrial commodities was just 2 or 3% in 1990. So we’ve had this huge expansion in Chinese appetite for resources. My view is that China’s demand for raw materials will not collapse, but it will not grow at the same rate anymore or hardly grow at all, except for oil. Their demand for oil will obviously grow in the long-term. But for the industrial commodities, it will slow down meaningfully. And so the impact on other emerging economies where we have hardly any growth at the present time, will be felt. As is the case in the West, real growth will be very difficult for many Asian economies. - in goldsilverworlds.com July 2014

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Vietnam is better than China , if you believe in the Chinese recovery

ETF.com: You accurately predicted the rise of China more than 10 years ago in the early 2000s. Fast-forward to 2014—Is China still a good place to invest today?

Faber: It hasn't been a good place to invest for stock investors since 2006, whereby this is a comment based on the market index. If you bought Internet-related stocks in China—like Baidu and so forth—a few years ago, you've done very well. So we have to distinguish in the world that some stocks have done well and some have done badly.
In general, I would say that the stock market in China is now not particularly expensive. It's been going down since 2006, essentially. At the same time, we have very questionable accounting standards. We have had a huge credit bubble in the last five years. How this credit bubble will be deflated and what the impact will be on the economy, we don't know yet for sure. I can hardly think that it will be particularly favorable. I think that Chinese stocks may not go necessarily much lower, but I doubt that they'll go up substantially.
If you want to play a recovery in China, then I think you're better off buying Hong Kong shares, because in Hong Kong, you have reasonably good corporate governance, you have very-well-managed companies, which are owned largely by families. So the families are ready to be conservative in their dealings. They have low leverage. So if you believe that China is bottoming out and going up, I would own some Hong Kong shares, as I do.
Another recovery play—a market that has a similarly poor performance to China over the last few years—is Vietnam, which is very cheap, which has deleverage and improving fundamentals in terms of growing trade surplus, rising exports and so on. So I think Vietnam is better than China itself, if you believe in the Chinese recovery.

ETF.com: When you say Hong Kong, are you talking about H-shares (H.K.-listed Chinese companies), or Hong Kong companies?

Faber: No, the entire Hong Kong market. A Chinese recovery would essentially mean that the property market in China is not overheated, and that property prices will not decline. In which case, Hong Kong property companies would become rather attractive, because they sell, in some cases, at almost a 50 percent discount the net asset value.

ETF.com: So you would favor something like the Hang Seng Index?

Faber: Correct.

ETF.com: The big news recently out of China has been this cross-exchange trading between Hong Kong and Shanghai that’s expected to take place in about six months. Is this a game changer, or somewhat of a yawner?

Faber: I think it's more of a yawner. But it's very clear that China over time will have an open foreign exchange market and capital market. It's a step in the right direction, but it's a very small step.





Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Marc Faber On China and Shadow Banking Defaults

"China can handle it by printing money but it will again have unintended negative consequences... but the
problem is real... but it's not just in China..."

 in CNBC Click here to watch the full interview >>>>>>>


Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Big Pollution Problem in China

Faber : Let's enjoy dinner tonight. Maybe it will happen tomorrow. We've been discussing China's water problem. Pollution, too, has become so horrible that people are leaving China with their children. Sometimes, entire cities break down. You hardly have a clear day in Hong Kong any more, or in Shanghai. Agriculture is in disarray because the water table is falling, and agricultural commodities prices have corrected significantly, despite all the money-printing around the world. in 2014 Barron's Roundtable




Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Faber : Oil Demand to Rise rapidly in China & India

They[Different commodities] move in general in the similar direction but maybe at different times. Now, say if the price of corn goes up substantially, the farmers can right away increase the production of corn and a year later the additional supplies will then essentially contain further price increase and the price will go down.

In the case of the oil industry and also for copper, once you have shortages developing, until new large reserves come on stream and until new mines essentially produce, the response time is very long and we have essentially in the world, coming from emerging economies – those would be China and India – very rapidly rising oil demands.

In China over the last fifteen years, oil imports, they have risen three times. China consumes now almost ten million barrels of oil a day. So the demand is there, if they slow down somewhat, long-term it’s there. Every oil well eventually runs dry. It cannot produce forever. New oil is very costly to produce. In other words you have to go and drill and you have to then extract the oil and there’s a lot of safety regulations and very costly, probably around eighty Dollars a barrel.

Marc Faber

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber: The Physical Gold Investment & the Importance of China

Source : WiWo (summarily translated from German)
Marc Faber the prestigious Swiss financial guru and publisher of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report suggests that the Chinese yuan is a serious competitor to the U.S. dollar and as a hedge against extreme situations Swiss guru recommends investing in gold . " Owning physical gold is my insurance against crimes committed by governments. An insurance against failed states or hyperinflation , " Faber says adding that governments will never admit that they made a mistake, but rather look guilty .

Marc Faber says the Fed for 20 years a policy of monetary expansion and interest rates have been kept artificially low , practically zero percent today . " The artificially low interest rates and bond purchases have skyrocketed the prices of stocks and real estate. But the economic impact has been relatively small . Milton Friedman's " Capitalism and Freedom " wrote that the problem with government programs that implemented , is always initiated due to an emergency , but not abandoned when it ends . Therefore, the state increasingly inflated , and the Fed , he is becoming increasingly difficult to end this policy. "
Faber believes that in Malaysia , Thailand , Hong Kong , Singapore , there are many stocks that have a dividend yield of five percent . Also considered interesting the Vietnamese market . Japan on the other hand not enthusiastic , but believes that the Nikkei would work better than other markets.

"We are going through a sideways market . It was the same in the seventies , early in my career , but there are opportunities. Some industries developed greatly in this sideways market . "

On investment in China noted that " China's rise is amazing. Just look at what China does in Africa , build bridges in six months, while the World Bank takes six years. What Chinese companies now offer not provide any American or German . They work in the Gobi Desert , with three shifts at minus 20 degrees . His speed and ability to sacrifice are unique. This does not mean it will always continue so also do not think the current statistics . "

"China actually grows to a maximum of four per cent per annum. And in recent years , have extended the debt. With a large amount of money can always inflate growth. This is not only a problem that is of in China. The same has happened in the U.S. since the early eighties. Just calculate how much it has only increased U.S. consumer debt during this period, which downplays the growing tremendously. But you can not keep playing forever. "

Faber says that " In many sectors of the global economy , China is now more important than USA . The U.S. economy depends heavily on the service sector. But if China demanded fewer raw materials affect everyone . Each time you use more the yuan in trade as freely convertible currency , will become a serious competitor to the dollar. "




Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

China is heading for a Crisis says Marc Faber

China’s debt is approaching critical levels and a crisis could unfold within a year, renowned investor Marc Faber told Citywire Global.
Rather than focusing on the spat between politicians over the US’s fiscal policies, people should be more concerned about developments in China, said F
aber.‘I am leaning towards the view that China is heading for a crisis. The question is whether they can postpone the problems with fiscal or monetary problems for a year or so,’ he said. - in CityWire

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber : in China without Huge Credit Expansion there would probably be no Growth at all

 Marc Faber : "The Chinese economy is growing at something like 4 per cent per annum, and without huge credit expansion there would probably be no growth at all." - in South China Morning Post

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

China will not end well

MARC FABER :  There has been a huge credit bubble in China, and it isn't going to end well. Its economy officially grew 7.7% in the first quarter. In reality, it is growing 4% a year, at best. Figures on Chinese exports to Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore don't agree with the import figures of those countries. In each case, reported exports are much larger than reported imports. Singapore publishes relatively honest economic statistics. Its gross domestic product has hardly grown in the past six months. Inflation is about 4% a year. Here in Thailand, growth has slowed despite massive fiscal stimulus. Trade and current-account surpluses have been shrinking in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries.

Again, the economy of the rich is booming. There has been huge wealth accumulation in Asia in recent years. But the middle class has experienced diminishing purchasing power. Throughout history, growing wealth inequality has been corrected either peacefully, through taxation and wealth redistribution, or by revolution, as in Russia. I am not sure we will have a revolution in the Western world, but I can see European voters turning against the arrogance of the bureaucracy. There have been so many scandals involving French politicians with Swiss bank accounts, and so forth.


Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber : There has been a huge credit bubble in China, and it isn't going to end well

Let's discuss China. The economy appears to be weakening, and investors understandably are worried. How does the situation look to you?
Marc Faber : There has been a huge credit bubble in China, and it isn't going to end well. Its economy officially grew 7.7% in the first quarter. In reality, it is growing 4% a year, at best. Figures on Chinese exports to Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore don't agree with the import figures of those countries. In each case, reported exports are much larger than reported imports. Singapore publishes relatively honest economic statistics. Its gross domestic product has hardly grown in the past six months. Inflation is about 4% a year. Here in Thailand, growth has slowed despite massive fiscal stimulus. Trade and current-account surpluses have been shrinking in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries.
Again, the economy of the rich is booming. There has been huge wealth accumulation in Asia in recent years. But the middle class has experienced diminishing purchasing power. Throughout history, growing wealth inequality has been corrected either peacefully, through taxation and wealth redistribution, or by revolution, as in Russia. I am not sure we will have a revolution in the Western world, but I can see European voters turning against the arrogance of the bureaucracy. There have been so many scandals involving French politicians with Swiss bank accounts, and so forth. - in Barron's

Marc Faber : China is in cahoots with North Korea

Marc Faber : "Don't think the North Koreans are acting alone," he said. China is in cahoots with the North, he said, despite Beijing's tough talk against Pyongyang over the weekend.

Marc Faber : people that made money in China are the locals

Marc Faber  : " whenever you have proliferation of fraud on a massive scale as we've sen now with Chinese companies it's a very very clear symptom of a bubble of a mania and of course you have more Chinese fraud companies in the US because the public does not know anything about China , secondly here in Hong Kong the regulators are also relatively relaxed but if you cheat Hong Kong Chinese you have to watch your kneecaps may be you do not have your kneecaps anymore , so I think that people are very careful in cheating Honk Kong people , plus the Hong Kong public is not totally stupid like in the US , people go and buy anything they buy anything , anything here in China is good , growing , China will be the biggest economy , it is already in many sectors the biggest economy but it does not lead necessarily to making money , in the 19th century in America you had canal boom railroad boom foreigners were always taken to the cleaners repeatedly , in China the people that had made money are the locals , the people that make money here in Asia mostly are the locals there are some foreigners that have made money but by in large it is a local story - in Bloomberg TV 23 June 2011

China has a trade deficit with Asia - Marc Faber

China has a trade deficit with Asia


Dr. Marc Faber Chairman of Faber Limited speaking to Mike Maloney about the chinese trade deficit with the rest of Asia , The dollar and of course Gold and Silver ....: ...what is happening is because the productivity in China has increased so much in the last couple of years they have become very competitive and so they have a growing trade surplus with the United States at the same time what has happened is if you look at the exports from Asia to the US then before in the seventies when China was still a communist country the big growth engines in Asia were Japan Taiwan and South Korea to some extent Honk Kong and Singapore these countries used to export to the US , now a lot of these countries are exporting components to China they are then processed in China and shipped to the United States , so whereas China has a growing trade and current account surplus with the US they have a growing trade deficit with the rest of Asia and of course because of the huge appetite for the raw materiel they have a trade deficit also with OPEC but you have to give the Chinese credit whereas the US has a trade deficit with OPEC over a hundred billion dollars the Chinese have a trade deficit with OPEC of only a 4 billion dollars because they're very good at selling goods to countries that supply them with raw materiel ....

Marc Faber : in 2011 or 2012, there will be disappointments coming out of China

Marc Faber :"...I do not think I would necessary invest in Venezuela and my concern about commodities and warrants on China, mainly economies that have larger exports to China than to the United States, is that some time in 2011 or 2012, there will be disappointments coming out of China. The most vulnerable assets are assets that are tied to the Chinese economy, precisely like industrial commodities, copper and currencies of countries like Australia and Canada and also their stock markets. ..."
in ET Now 

Marc Faber : We have high inflation in Vietnam and China

Marc Faber :"...We have high inflation in Vietnam and China. If each of the central banks does not do anything, inflation will accelerate and eventually cause even more problems. If the central banks step in and tighten monetary conditions, it would not be very good for equities. ..."
in ET Now