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Showing posts with label Mohamed El-Erian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mohamed El-Erian. Show all posts
Mohamed El-Erian : He (Joseph Stiglitz) is right in the sense that the muddled middle which is where Europe has been is no longer sustainable. The crisis that started in the outer periphery - Greece - not only has shifted to the inner periphery and the outer core - Spain and Italy - but it has also impacted FRANCE. Which is the inner core. Europe has to make a choice if it wants to save the euro. One choice is full fiscal union and the other is a smaller Eurozone. That is a political decision Germany must take.
Mohamed El-Erian : Chairman Bernanke has said there are benefits and costs and risks. That balance is shifting from benefits to potential costs and risks. If they did QE3 there would get some benefits but also quite a few distortions and collateral damage put into the system that could take us years to overcome. You will see pressure on the currency and the functioning of the markets. More and more non-commercial forces will be determining market outcomes [Amazing]
The Market Reaction to Jobs Report was Muted , The jobs report was good, but we need better data than we are getting right now, says Mohamed El-Erian Pimco CEO, co-CIO: "it's interesting to see the market reaction. the numbers are good not only in terms of overall numbers but in terms of hours and the action is very muted and i think the three underlying that we are benefiting from household savings and it's not clear how long that is going to continue. two, Europe. things are getting worse in Europe. David earlier spoke about it Spanish deficit. we have factory numbers out of Germany today. and then there is general deleveraging. we continue to see the demand curve for European securities in particular shift inward. so it's not enough to get a good number. we need a really good number and we didn't get that today." Mohamed El-Erian said
Mohamed El-Erian "...I was in Europe last week and there's nothing but bad choices. they're looking at a series of bad choices which makes it very difficult to take a decision. so as Michelle said, they've decided not to decide when it comes to the creditors. meanwhile Greece is seeing a tremendous amount of bickering and the issue is nothing so far has been done to solve the two problems Greece has. one, compete excessive debt and inability to grow. it will weigh on our markets here and we'll see the same set of headlines over and over again and we cannot continue to kick the can down the road because we're coming to the end of the road in Greece. "
"first you recognize it's a solvency issue, not a liquidity issue. second you recognize that waiting has contaminated it. so part of the problem now is that the ECB balance sheet has gotten contaminated. so you need to have an action plan for that. thirdly, you need to protect the economies that do not have the characteristics of Greece, but could get contaminated. Spain, Italy. you need to move on plan b quickly, otherwise you're going to get stuck and everything's going to be more difficult. a year ago the ECB balance sheet was not contaminated so we could have solved it easier. today it is contaminated, so it gets more complicated. and six months time, gets even more complicated. so waiting around, not to kick the can down the road, but just waiting around makes the solution even more difficult."
Housing, credit, public finances, and the labor areas of the economy are currently impaired and until the country gets over those structural impairments, economic growth will be tough for a while, says Mohamed El-Erian Pimco CEO/Co-CIO:" I'm really worried by the data. we've had a string of bad data. look overnight, Brazil, France, china. and Portugal, Greece, all of them came in lower than expected. all are tapping the brakes as in brazil. what we're having right now is a global growth slowdown. that's going to impact top line revenue growth. there isn't much cost to prune anymore. most of it has been cut. there's going to be some pressure on profits. the good news is the balance sheets for most multinationals are pristine and profits are high. we're good not going to sustain this sort of profit growth in this global economy."
Mohamed El-Erian is hopeful that this is a golden opportunity for the capitalism , this is a multispeed world different parts of the world are doing different things some people have inflation problem other people have growth problem says El-Erian , it sounds pretty chaotic when you look at it from the outside
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about Japan's intervention in the foreign-exchange market to weaken the yen. El-Erian, speaking with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance," also discusses the ineffectiveness of economic policies. (This is an excerpt. Source: Bloomberg)
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed A. El-Erian said business is booming at the world’s largest manager of bond funds and that isn’t a good sign for the U.S. economy.
Net inflows into bond funds reached $120 billion year to date at the end of August as investors became more risk averse, Pimco’s chief executive and co-chief investment officer said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. Newport Beach, California-based Pimco oversees more than $1.1 trillion of assets and runs the $248 billion Total Return Fund, the biggest bond fund by assets. read article on Businessweek >>>
In sum, the current policy approaches here and abroad are unlikely to deliver a durable and robust U.S. recovery and, critically, create sufficient growth in jobs. Yet the main debate in Washington is whether to do more of the same — namely, another fiscal stimulus and another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. This clearly conflicts with evidence that a broader and more holistic response is needed. read the full article >>>
Mohamed El-Erian :"The basic premise is that we are in the midst of a major national and global realignment. The main catalyst was the financial crisis of 2008, but the underlying factors have been there for a while. The question is: What does the world look like post-realignment? The world is on a bumpy journey to a new destination and the New Normal."
Mohamed El-Erian in an interview with USA TODAY Money reporter Adam Shell on 15 Aug 2010 full interview >>>>
Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pimco Pacific Investment Management Co., said last week the possibility of deflation and a recession in the U.S. is 25 percent.El-Erian helps run the world's biggest bond fund with more than $1 trillion in assets under management.
"Structural problems need structural solutions" “Forget about being hostage to mindsets that are very cyclical and look broader, because there are some major structural changes -- there’s some major realignment both at the national level and at the global level,” Mohamed El-Erian Told Bloomberg in a radio interview on Aug. 13, 2010 “We should not over-depend on the Fed,” he added. “The Fed does not have enough instruments for what we’re looking at. You need other agencies to get involved. We’re not getting any structural solutions.”
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Mohammed El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., discusses Federal Reserve monetary policy. El-Erian, speaking with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance," also discusses deflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)
In an interview WITH CNBC this morning Mohamed El-Erian CEO and and co-CIO of Pimco discussed the dangers of deflation and the remaining options for the Fed and the government.He said that the central bank can only do so much to foster growth and avoid deflation.“Fed policy is not enough. You need to do more than that to get off that road,” eL-eRIAN said.“The country is facing structural issues and it needs structural solutions,” he added. “Just focusing on the Fed is like sending in a wide receiver to play quarterback. Yes, the wide receiver is a good athlete. But he’s not a quarterback and we need to focus on structural issues.”
Full interview www.sqstudy.org EL-ERIAN: You know, Tom, all this speaks to what Ben Bernanke coined last week as the unusually uncertain outlook. Whether you look at the data, which is pointing in all sorts of directions, whether you look at the earnings, what we’re getting right now is very, very noisy picture. And it points to an uncertain outlook. Now, there’s two ways to think about this. One is, as you mentioned, certain data of backward looking, others are forward looking. The other thing – way to think about it is the reality that during regime shifts, data gets very noisy because you’re shifting from one regime to another and our inclination is the latter. Our inclination is to think of this as natural for a regime shift and we’re moving from a regime of high growth, leveraging, debt and credit entitlement to a more delivered, slower-growing, higher unemployment world.
"The typical U.S. investor tends to have about 80% of equities in the U.S. The world of tomorrow suggests a much greater exposure overseas. In general, you should consider holding a third of your equities in the U.S., a third in industrial countries outside the U.S., and a third in emerging markets." PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian told Money magazine
"The market is giving you a very clear signal. It's saying, 'Let's focus on top-line revenue. It's not enough to focus on on the bottom line, because we don't want to see one-off cost containment, we don't want to see one-off items being shifted," "We want to see top-line revenue growth because we want to see sustainable earnings, and the companies are falling short...of the top-line revenue growth that was anticipated."Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC via CNBC
Mohamed El-Erian The PIMCO CEO and co-CIO says the Greek crisis is going global, and may lead to tighter credit in Europe and stronger headwinds around the world.
from Wikipedia : Dr. Mohamed Abdulla El-Erian (born 1958) is the CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond investor with over US$1 trillion of assets under management as of 2010. El-Erian previously worked as the investment manager of Harvard Management Company, Harvard University’s US$34.9 billion endowment fund, where he spent almost two years.[1][2] On September 12, 2007, it was announced that El-Erian would return to PIMCO and take up his new roles starting January 1, 2008
Mohamed El-Erian: Susie, we went into the weekend knowing that Europe had a debt issue and Europe had a growth issue. And we come out of the weekend with the news that Europe may also have a banking system issue. The minute you bring in the banking system, it's like an amplifier, something that we discovered in this country a couple of years ago. Banks have a way of amplifying shocks in the system because banks are like the oil in your car. They link up so many different parts. And the problem for the U.S. is that not only is it going to have to cope with a growth issue out of Europe. Europe is an important export market. We sell a lot to Europe. Europe is going to grow less, but now the strains in the banking system. And the minute you introduce strains in the banking system, there's always a fear that governments will be behind the curve and that you can get contagion. You can get widespread disruptions. And that's what we started to price in today.
EL-ERIAN: They are not as exposed to the European banks as they are to each other but we are all exposed to the global banking system. Banks are very inter-linked. And the minute you start having disruptions, the minute the flow through the pipes starts to be interrupted, then everybody suffers. And the concern is that Europe's banking system may come under pressure. Those of us that are in the trenches, those of us who look at the plumbing for the last couple of weeks we have started to see some strains and the news out of Spain this weekend was really the announcement to the rest of the world that the European banking system is coming under pressure. for the full transcript and to donate to PBS click here >>>
April 29 (Bloomberg) --Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt about the challenges of Greece's debt crisis. El-Erian also discusses possible actions that may help attract investors to Greek government bonds and the possibility of private market bailouts of sovereign debts. (Source: Bloomberg)
