Vietnam and Iraq Most Attractive Emerging Markets

The most attractive stock markets macro economically and technically in terms of valuation is probably Vietnam and Iraq, which as an economy is not problem-free but it will grow; the valuations are extremely low. So, these two markets will perform reasonably well.


Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Emerging Markets Central Bankers Shouldn't blame Tapering for their Problems

Marc Faber : “It’s easy to blame someone else for ones problems, emerging markets central bankers are blaming now the Fed for the tapering… The Fed has brought about problem in emerging economies. But, it’s not the tapering. It’s the previous bubble they created because investors were chasing yield. They bought emerging market stocks, emerging market currencies, and bonds. They pushed up these asset prices to relatively high levels,” said Faber.



Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Emerging Markets : We have to look at each Emerging Market separately

Marc Faber: We have to look at each emerging market separately because of the diverging performances. Since 2009 we have seen great performances in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, where markets went up by three to four times. On the other hand are markets like India, Brazil or Russia, which are still down in dollar terms by 50% from their highs. Therefore, each emerging market is in a different position at the moment.
In my view, there has been a huge correction in Indonesia and Thailand from the recent highs. The market is down by around 30-35% from the April-May high, but following a rebound, we will see further weakness.
Indian stocks, because of the currency weakness, have already experienced a very substantial bear market. It may last a little longer, but we surely are coming into a buying range. - in a recent interview with ET NOW



Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber : We have to look at each Emerging Market separately

Marc Faber: We have to look at each emerging market separately because of the diverging performances. Since 2009 we have seen great performances in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, where markets went up by three to four times. On the other hand are markets like India, Brazil or Russia, which are still down in dollar terms by 50% from their highs. Therefore, each emerging market is in a different position at the moment.
In my view, there has been a huge correction in Indonesia and Thailand from the recent highs. The market is down by around 30-35% from the April-May high, but following a rebound, we will see further weakness.
Indian stocks, because of the currency weakness, have already experienced a very substantial bear market. It may last a little longer, but we surely are coming into a buying range. - in ET Now

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Emerging Markets heading Lower , too early for Them to Rebound

Marc Faber : I mean, look, there has been a huge out performance of the u.s., vis-a-vis emerging markets over the last, say, 18 months. out performance of, say, roughly 30%. so it's logical that some people say, okay, the U.S. is up there, Europe is down, and emerging markets have performed so badly, let's move back into the emerging economy. so i would say this is too early. i think the emerging markets may rebound somewhat, but i think in general, they will head lower.
  in a recent CNBC interview , Click here to watch the full interview >>>>>

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber : Emerging Markets could see a rebound but are headed lower overall

Too early to buy emerging markets says Marc Faber

Emerging Markets could see a rebound but are headed lower overall, Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report.

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber : No Rush To Buy Emerging Markets Stocks

Investment Guru Marc Faber says that one should be selling emerging markets when the foreigners are heavy buyers and vice versa. "So investment banks turning negative on India is indeed a positive for country," he says, adding that US may outperform EMs.



Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber : New Highs in Emerging Markets are out of the question

New highs in emerging markets and in high yield bonds are out of the question, and if it happened in the S&P, which I don't believe, it would be driven by very few stocks. Longer term, the market is far from oversold. It still has considerable downside risk everywhere," he said.

"The economy will weaken and not strengthen globally because if you look at where the growth came from over the last 10 years, it came almost 80% from emerging economies. These are not growing now and corporate profits will come under pressure, and that will have an impact on Western European companies and U.S. multinationals," he added.

"I don't see any buying opportunity from a longer-term perspective yet. Short term some of them are very oversold because - in msn money

Emerging Markets have to be looked at in a segregated way

Marc Faber : Emerging markets have to be looked at in a segregated way. Some of them have performed very well this year, and the markets like the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and also India performed well last year. Others have performed miserably like China and Vietnam. So we have to look at each emerging market separately. I do not think that Cyprus has a large impact on emerging markets, but we have to see that the markets in general are overbought and any news, no matter how irrelevant it is, will have an impact and they lead to a correction or even a sharp decline.

Thai & Indian Banks & exposure to Europe debt

Marc Faber : Order, order. I haven't finished. Fraser & Neave [FNN.Singapore], in Singapore, is a conglomerate similar to Swire. It sells for 10 times earnings and yields about 3%. It could become a takeover target at some point. Lastly, I am the chairman of the India Capital Fund [an open-end fund sold outside the U.S.]. The fund and the Indian currency have been hit hard, and the fund could go lower. But the U.S. outperformed India last year on the order of 40%, and the Indian market looks attractive at 12 times earnings. As Chen Zhao at BCA Research said, in China the macro backdrop is fantastic and the micro is a disaster, but in India the macro is a disaster and the micro is fantastic. India has very good companies. The fund is overweight the banks and has a P/E of 10. Last year I was overweight the U.S. relative to emerging economies. At what stage will the outperformance of the U.S. cease and emerging markets rise again? It could be three or six months, or a year. I am gradually increasing my exposure to emerging markets. Thai and Indian banks have no exposure to Europe. Indian banks lend domestically. - in The Barron's Roundtable

Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies

Marc Faber : Broadly-based international portfolio should have at least 50% of its assets in emerging economies. We are talking about stock portfolios. The question is do you buy today or you wait? I do not know when the markets will bottom out. I do not know when the QE3 will be implemented, but I would say in Asia, you have a lot of shares that have a dividend yield of between 4 and 7%. You have zero interest rates on deposits. So I do not think there is a huge downside risk in equities. Now can they go down 20-30%? Yes, but if you cannot take the pain of downside volatility in the order of 20-30%, then do not even get up in the morning from your bed, stay in bed.

Marc Faber : It is now now late to sell emerging markets

Marc Faber :  "...I don’t think that emerging markets have bottomed out but it would be now late to sell emerging markets. In many cases, they are down 20% and many stocks, good companies, are down 30% from the recent high. The US stock market has now doubled from its low.
In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years. One was in 1934, coming off very deeply oversold condition in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return, both were negative.
I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model...."
via Indian TV TV-18 

Marc Faber : I dont think that emerging markets have bottomed out

Marc Faber :   "....I don’t think that emerging markets have bottomed out but it would be now late to sell emerging markets. In many cases, they are down 20% and many stocks, good companies, are down 30% from the recent high. The US stock market has now doubled from its low.

In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years. One was in 1934, coming off very deeply oversold condition in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return, both were negative.

I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model."
via www.moneycontrol.com

Marc Faber : the US market will eventually join the Emerging Markets on the downside

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, on Feb 21, 2011 , investment guru Marc Faber said oil prices could go up substantially from current levels



Marc Faber :'...Well My view is that the US market will eventually join the emerging markets on the downside because if you take a bearish view about the emerging economies, you cannot be too optimistic about the US because for many US corporations, 50% or more of their profits come from emerging economies. and My main concerns are these: first of all, I think that not all is well in China. That if the Chinese economy slows down more then what analysts expect, we could have a downdraft in commodity prices and all the warrants on China — whether it is Brazil, Australia or Indonesia would get hit quite hard.Secondly, I think that the geopolitical tensions in the world are increasing. In particular, if I were in India, I would be concerned about the events that are now occurring in Pakistan and Afghanistan. and This can also have an impact, obviously, on the valuation of equities. But I mean We shouldn’t forget that all the central banks in the world basically only know one thing and that is to print money. And when things will get bad, they will print more money. If they get worst than bad, they print more money.
Independently, whether that is the Bank of China or the Reserve Bank of India or in the US all the central banks will keep interest rates artificially low and they won’t increase them to a level where inflation adjusted they are positive....I am overly negative about assets and corporation stocks assets like commodities or real estate and so forth , I would be very concerned about the bonds market...."

Marc Faber : Emerging Economies are very tied to the Chinese economy

Marc Faber :".......In general, the issue is that between 2008 and today, emerging economies have performed very well economically speaking and the rest of the world has not, and therefore, we had an outperformance in emerging economies' stock markets. Now, the question is emerging economies are very tied to the Chinese economy, and if the Chinese economy slows down or goes into a recession or there is a bubble that bursts in China, before the developed market economies recover strongly, what the implications will be on equities? That's why I feel more comfortable today to move back some money out of emerging economies into the developed markets. ...."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Marc Faber : The US and Europe economies may outperform The emerging markets

Marc Faber :"...Yes. The emerging economies’ stock markets have outperformed the US significantly over the last 18 months since March 2009. We might have a period in which the more mature economies like the US and Europe can outperform emerging markets...."
via www.moneycontrol.com

Marc Faber outlook for the Emerging Markets EMs

Marc Faber :"....All EMs have significantly outperformed the US and Japan over the last two years or so. Now with monetary conditions tightening somewhat in the world, we see interest rates going up everywhere. We could have a period of under-performance. The news about emerging economies has been very favorable. To a large extent, these favorable economic developments have already been discounted by the stock markets."
via www.moneycontrol.com Dec 10, 2010

Marc Faber : investors should have approximately 50% or more of their money in emerging economies

Marc Faber :"...In general, investors should one day have approximately 50% or more of their money in emerging economies. I have all my money in emerging economies for the money that they allocate to real estate and to equities. Of course I also have bonds in the developed world and also cash in on the developed world, but in general, I am very optimistic about the emerging economies. But that does not change the fact that over the last few months, in fact since April because I saw that April would be a high for the S&P at 1219, I have taken some money off the table because a correction is overdue. "

Mar Faber : The global economy could surprise on the upside

Marc Faber :"...The entire energy sector including natural gas is probably relatively attractive because the global economy could surprise on the upside. In other words, the EMs continue to grow and the oil demand continues to grow, especially out of China and India. The Europe and US stabilizes and also recovers somewhat, in which case the demand for oil will go up and drive up prices.
On the other hand, if the world again goes into recession, it will be accompanied by significant geo-political tensions, in which case there could be oil interruption and oil would also rally. In either case, oil will stay high...."
via moneycontrol.com

Marc Faber : See 20-30% correction in emerging economies

Marc Faber : In general, emerging markets have been weak relative to the US and relative to Japan and for the next six months emerging markets (EMs) will not perform all that well."
"In India we had a market that performed superbly between March 2009 and just about three weeks ago. It was ready to come on the profit taking anyway. Now we have this profit taking phase and it will last for a while"
"We could easily in emerging economies have a correction of 20-30%." Marc Faber added